Analysis of ASIC earnings, device agnostic - page 2.

Signus

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Quote from: organofcorti on April 23, 2013, 01:49:11 AM

But I included all the old difficulty numbers in the initial post, you could use them. Anyway, you can cut short all your calculations by using the fifth column, which already provides the info you were calculating.

For example:

If you bought on the 18th April the amount you'd earn until August is 2.897 btc / ghps -> 47.5* 2.897 btc = 137.6075 btc
If you bought on the 1st February the amount you'd earn until August is 11.305 btc / ghps -> 47.5* 11.305 btc = 536.9875 btc

Hope that saves you some time, and I apologise for not making it more clear. Check out the blog post if you want more details.

Well that shows you how much I'm paying attention. That extra month or two could have seriously helped if someone were going to invest that much to get ROI. Especially if they were on a loan.

Quote from: railadner on April 23, 2013, 11:54:17 AM

With increasing difficulty and reducing miners, which the price of 1 BTC in August? $ 500 +?

The change in the price depends on the interest and the trading whereas the ability to mine profitably depends on the difficulty, market, electricity, etc.

Epoch

legendary

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Quote from: railadner on April 23, 2013, 11:54:17 AM

With increasing difficulty and reducing miners, which the price of 1 BTC in August? $ 500 +?

Bitcoins are created at a relatively constant rate (25 BTC every 10 minutes on average) that self-adjusts every 2016 blocks based on network hashrate. Rising difficulty and 'reducing miners' have no direct effect on supply/demand and, hence, price.

chipd

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Not sure if already discussed (too lazy to read through the whole thread right now, sorry).
How about GPU miners that might move away when profit is close to 0 for them?

edit:
Nice work, an interesting read!

railadner

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With increasing difficulty and reducing miners, which the price of 1 BTC in August? $ 500 +?

furuknap

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http://coin.furuknap.net/

There was an interesting article on Wired posted on Reddit today, regarding the arms race of ASIC mining equipment.

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/04/bitcoin-mining-rigs/

.b

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

New update in case you're interested: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/914-asic-earnings-23-april-2013.html

Quote

Adding an extra 100 Thps to the network by the end of July only adds an extra one third to the total, so the impact isn't as large as you'd think. If you look at last week's estimate, the earnings per day and cumulative earnings aren't reduced by a very large margin.

Any devices that arrive after 18th May are probably unable to obtain a complete return on their investment by the end of July.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 01:20:42 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on April 23, 2013, 01:16:00 AM

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 01:07:30 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on April 23, 2013, 12:49:46 AM

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 12:44:29 AM

My point. That's a projection based off of a purchase from a month or two ago to today, that you're trying to pay off before the difficulty maximizes and the profit minimizes. I mean I like mining for fun but I do like to break even when it comes to electricity.

No, your projection is based on estimated data from now until August.

I said the purchase from a month ago or two today. The projection is from today until August.

Ah, I misunderstood. But if the purchase was from a month or two ago, wouldn't it be better to do your analysis from then as well?

Yeah, probably. See, I'm lazy and I didn't want to go looking down the old difficulty numbers, plus it works as a way of showing "if you bought today." And I meant "to today" and not "two today," damn touchscreens.

But I included all the old difficulty numbers in the initial post, you could use them. Anyway, you can cut short all your calculations by using the fifth column, which already provides the info you were calculating.

For example:

If you bought on the 18th April the amount you'd earn until August is 2.897 btc / ghps -> 47.5* 2.897 btc = 137.6075 btc
If you bought on the 1st February the amount you'd earn until August is 11.305 btc / ghps -> 47.5* 11.305 btc = 536.9875 btc

Hope that saves you some time, and I apologise for not making it more clear. Check out the blog post if you want more details.

Signus

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on April 23, 2013, 01:16:00 AM

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 01:07:30 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on April 23, 2013, 12:49:46 AM

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 12:44:29 AM

My point. That's a projection based off of a purchase from a month or two ago to today, that you're trying to pay off before the difficulty maximizes and the profit minimizes. I mean I like mining for fun but I do like to break even when it comes to electricity.

No, your projection is based on estimated data from now until August.

I said the purchase from a month ago or two today. The projection is from today until August.

Ah, I misunderstood. But if the purchase was from a month or two ago, wouldn't it be better to do your analysis from then as well?

Yeah, probably. See, I'm lazy and I didn't want to go looking down the old difficulty numbers, plus it works as a way of showing "if you bought today." And I meant "to today" and not "two today," damn touchscreens.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 01:07:30 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on April 23, 2013, 12:49:46 AM

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 12:44:29 AM

My point. That's a projection based off of a purchase from a month or two ago to today, that you're trying to pay off before the difficulty maximizes and the profit minimizes. I mean I like mining for fun but I do like to break even when it comes to electricity.

No, your projection is based on estimated data from now until August.

I said the purchase from a month ago or two today. The projection is from today until August.

Ah, I misunderstood. But if the purchase was from a month or two ago, wouldn't it be better to do your analysis from then as well?

Signus

newbie

Activity: 28

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Quote from: organofcorti on April 23, 2013, 12:49:46 AM

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 12:44:29 AM

My point. That's a projection based off of a purchase from a month or two ago to today, that you're trying to pay off before the difficulty maximizes and the profit minimizes. I mean I like mining for fun but I do like to break even when it comes to electricity.

No, your projection is based on estimated data from now until August.

I said the purchase from a month ago or two today. The projection is from today until August.

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Signus on April 23, 2013, 12:44:29 AM

My point. That's a projection based off of a purchase from a month or two ago to today, that you're trying to pay off before the difficulty maximizes and the profit minimizes. I mean I like mining for fun but I do like to break even when it comes to electricity.

No, your projection is based on estimated data from now until August.

Signus

newbie

Activity: 28

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My point. That's a projection based off of a purchase from a month or two ago to today, that you're trying to pay off before the difficulty maximizes and the profit minimizes. I mean I like mining for fun but I do like to break even when it comes to electricity.

Viceroy

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Yep.

atcsecure

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Quote from: Signus on April 22, 2013, 06:33:21 AM

These projections show how hurt your profit margin can become. For example:

Let's say you bought in on a FPGA farm a few months back or just did. A rig I was looking at was a $45000 investment, at 47.5GH/s using ~2200W of power.

So given electricity of .15/kWh, using today's $118.31 USD/BTC rate, and calculating for profit by day, you can see how it will affect your average profit per day given that the exchange rate stays the same, which it won't. I know it's not ASIC but it still shows you that even a lot of power will lose the ability to profit.

So given that kind of investment now or at least two months ago, you'd be looking at a while for ROI. And say you got your ASIC in August (a BFL Jalapeno for instance), with the difficulty level that high it would still take ~50 days to pay off the $274 investment.

All I can say is..ouch.

it looks like it could be even worse

Signus

newbie

Activity: 28

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These projections show how hurt your profit margin can become. For example:

Let's say you bought in on a FPGA farm a few months back or just did. A rig I was looking at was a $45000 investment, at 47.5GH/s using ~2200W of power.

So given electricity of .15/kWh, using today's $118.31 USD/BTC rate, and calculating for profit by day, you can see how it will affect your average profit per day given that the exchange rate stays the same, which it won't. I know it's not ASIC but it still shows you that even a lot of power will lose the ability to profit.

http://imageshack.us/a/img402/8689/captureoor.png

So given that kind of investment now or at least two months ago, you'd be looking at a while for ROI. And say you got your ASIC in August (a BFL Jalapeno for instance), with the difficulty level that high it would still take ~50 days to pay off the $274 investment.

All I can say is..ouch.

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

Quote from: John Self on April 21, 2013, 06:13:01 AM

What does the difficulty look like if it hits 1000THps by year end?

What about 5000THps?

You can approximate difficulty as follows:

Difficulty = network hashrate / 2^32 * 600

At 1000e12 hashes per sec, D ~ 140 000 000
At 5000e12 hashes per sec, D ~ 700 000 000

Of course it is really dependant on the previous retarget's 2016 block hashrate, but this at least will give you an idea.

John Self

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What does the difficulty look like if it hits 1000THps by year end?

What about 5000THps?

organofcorti

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Poor impulse control.

I've already taken into account 2Thps of BFL ASICs per day from May 15th. At worst, I may have to bring that forward a couple of weeks. I'll see if many more BFL devices start arriving before I change that date though.

Silv0r

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Wow. I can not believe this.. BFL Jalapeno unboxing and demo video oO.. Congratulations to this guy! Buuut.. "1 of 10.000" BFL's out there for customers Cheesy

Hmm.. Difficult will rise in the next 4-6 weeks I think.

Viceroy

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I can't believe it... but it looks like the first BFL's are out.

I do not, sir.

Topic: Analysis of ASIC earnings, device agnostic - page 2. (Read 9866 times)