The numbers are all 100% real except for the ones that I specifically pointed out are plain wrong. The others are as much speculation as you are railing against in the same sentence, it makes no sense to create a projection of future trends almost a full year into the future then say "anyone who doesn't sell within the first second is speculating and therefore operating incorrectly." No one knows the future, everything is a speculation, trading is a different beast from mining, but that doesn't mean there is not some overlap.
Are your numbers conservative? In what way? You're assuming a 60% constant increase in difficulty because in the past few months there has been ~60% difficulty increase on each update. This totally ignores the > 1 year in which the difficulty barely increased at all. But anyway, if you are only going to look at the very recent past in which difficulty spiked like crazy, why are you then conveniently assuming a 10% increase in bitcoin value? In the past 2 months the value has gone from $0.89USD to $8.603USD, that is a 10x increase. Yet you choose to suggest only a fraction of that increase. Your numbers are basically tweaked to support your argument as I said, whether or not you call them conservative.
One last corollary, when I said investment I should have been more clear, I was referring to investment in bitcoins directly, rather than investment in hardware. It is clear that there needs to be a promotion into the bitcoin market, to encourage the adoption of bitcoin when people see that there is real interest in it, rather than in just making a profit off it. My apologies for not being clearer there.
"anyone who doesn't sell within the first second is speculating and therefore operating incorrectly." where did that quote come from? I never wrote that. I don't care what you do, I'm simply stating that if you do not sell your bitcoins you are speculating on bitcoin price, there is no arguing with that, it is a fact, there is nothing wrong with being a speculator lol, do not take offense to it. If you are going to speculate save yourself some time and just buy bitcoins directly.
They are conservative because I also analyzed a 30% difficulty increase and bitcoin increase to $100,000, that is over a 12000x increase, absolutely absurd if you ask me. They are not tweaked to support my argument, lol argument, my
statement was derived from the data. If the data had shown it to be profitable then that's what I would have wrote. You seem to think I have some alternative motive, I don't care what the value of bitcoin does, if you build a rig or not, it was an analysis others might find useful. I was thinking of buying a rig a few days ago and this is useful information IMO.
Since you want to bring semantics into it, I will use the definitions most relevant to this
discussion.
Statement: a single sentence or assertion.
Argument: a process of reasoning; series of reasons.
Sorry for trying to give you the benefit of the doubt by assuming you used reason to arrive at a conclusion.
You don't think your numbers are biased? You state that bitcoin value increases to $100,000 after 360 days, yet profitability falls out after 160 days. Why would people be mining at a loss and buying coins at that price? The only absurdity is presenting numbers that are bombastic to try to make a point. It is clear from your presentation that you are leaning in a specific direction regardless of your assertion that you are just some impartial observer following the irrefutable math.
Again, if you want to use ridiculous numbers, in the past TWO MONTHS,
60 days the value of bitcoin has increased 1000%, that is the only FACT that exists (none of your projections are facts as you seem to suggest) in this analysis, and it has been completely ignored. Am I saying that will continue? Of course not, but if you are going to be pulling out numbers why are you not using what exists?
If you argue that those numbers aren't realistic, which they of course are not, then you need to add more reasoning to your analysis. And as such it has been stated multiple times in this thread already
as profitability decreases so will the increasing hashrate/difficulty. Projecting static increases without taking this into account is just a way to push an agenda.
Just so I don't sound like a negative nancy:
Here is a useful tool another member created to estimate profitability, this is not in relation to buying a new rig like the OP, but it gives you a sense of where you would stand in terms of the profitability regime. It's a little more complex, and thus a little more useful.
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9111.0