Topic: ...AND THE BOTTOM IS... - page 2. (Read 4097 times)

You have a point: the title is objective and the poll subjective.
But that is how polls work: they make subjective questions to deduct "objective" conclusions.
 
The reason is to try to get a more accurate picture if the answers are honest, since anyone can guess anything, but he can say with much more certainty what he is going to do.

On a second thought an even better question about the bottom in a bear market could have been: "at what price would you stop selling BTC", since "would you buy at X price" seems more useful to find the top in a bull market.  

I answered the question in the poll.  The I read the OP.  Those questions have different answers.  Which one should I be responding to?

While I may be able to make a decent guess at the bottom, I will rarely be exactly right.  I will be buying all along the way.

What makes you think it'll hold at $50?

I would have to think the bottom is higher than $50. I don't remember exactly how it happened, but the price never dropped below that amount even with everyone in full panic mode in April. I hope I'm not being naively optimistic here.

I'm not going to argue about most of your post. But since you're new, I want to provide a history lesson, along with an argument as to why I consider <$1 to be an extremely unlikely scenario.



This is a chart of the end of 2011. After the first Big Bubble popped at $33/coin, the BTC market was in a downtrend. Many predicted, on this very forum, that BTC was dying and it was just a matter of time.

The price got to $2 in mid-November. At that time, Mt. Gox experienced the biggest trading volume ever - a record that remained unbroken for eighteen months. For several days, the market threatened to break through $2/BTC. It did not. Even in the face of a bubble that brought the price above $1/BTC and had been slowly sputtering out for six months, even among doomsayers who believed with all their hearts that the Bitcoin experiment had failed and prices like $30/coin were a one-time event, never to come again... even in such a climate, people wanted BTC for $2. People wanted them enough that the price never crossed that line. It was an insurmountable foundation of support, and from there the price began to climb again.

Now, the BTC price has beaten the previous bubble - market participants know that high prices were not a one-time opportunity. There are major online services that accept it, other than Silk Road. There's been media attention. In today's environment, what could possibly hurt confidence in the currency any worse than it was hurt in November 2011? What could possibly make people less confident in BTC than they were a year and a half ago, when they bought in with all their might at $2 a coin?

Don't get me wrong; I think the price is going to keep falling for a while. When I try to rule out my emotionality, the math of it looks like we're going to either $30ish or $11ish as our nadir. But given what happened in the latter days of 2011, I cannot imagine what would force the price below $2/coin that wouldn't have done it then.

$50 short-term

$10 - $30 medium-term

Waaay too many people want to buy for the price to drop below $50. My guess is $70-80 will be the bottom.

There is no bottom

I answered $10 to $30 but for me it's more about time than about money. My idea of what's going to happen is based on an "informed gut feeling".  I think it's going to take several months for this downtrend to reach its conclusion. Maybe more than a year. I'd say at least 6 months but no more than 3 years.

My USD is ready and waiting.

Here is a reason big as an ocean:
Beware, the International Tax Man Cometh
http://ragingbullshit.com/2013/06/29/beware-the-international-tax-man-cometh

Hi, I'm new here and watch BTC just vor some weeks, so excuse me if I write glibberish stuff ... At the beginning I thought, like a lot of people here as I read lurking around this place, wow, BTC would soon explode ... than I realized - no. Not soon. Maybe sometimes. As I learned, BTC would survive everybody here, it doesn't has to run.

My guess for the bottom, if I am realistic: 12 $. Maybe 15, maybe less ... Maybe even less than 1$. My reasons?

First I see absolutely no reason, why BTC should rise in the next month. Commercial adaptation is far away, and no businessman ever would accept BTC if he had a glance at the charts. For that to happen we need a long and stable bottom and slowly rising prices. Than it would be a good deal for business-man to accept BTC, and as soon as amazon or ebay does, we'll see the moon. But this won't happen soon.

Second I see some fundamentals dumping the price:
- The miners. Even in the second reward era the Miners will collect 1.25 million BTC a year. I don't know how much they sell. Half of it? Even if price goes down to 50$ the market needs an inflow of more than 30Mio$ to keep price stable.
- the olders: How would you do, if you made hundredthousands of coins in 2009/10/11 for nearly nothing and see them at a price of 2013 - no matter if its 100, 50, 10$? I would sell, not a once, but continualy, maybe 1.000 a month, which would make me a good living and also I would rest on a big amount of BTC for when it is grown up.
- the investors: I don't know if really some greek or cyprics have jumped on the BTC-train to save their money from the hands of the bail-outing state. If they did, they never wanted to make BTC adapt anything. They just wanted to have a parking lot for the money. And when the nebula lifts and they find a new place for the money, the cash out. Maybe with win, so they are lucky.

In my opinion these trends are unavoidable. Do you see any trend up?

I actually not. As I said, commercial adaption is far away (I don't say it will never come, the opposite, I am optimistic with this). I martered my head with this issue. Maybe gambling? What if world of warcraft excepts bitcoins? Or, better, Satoshis? If I could, I would buy one BTC and hide 100.000.000 Satoshis in a virtuell world. If you take satoshis, they could become the universal currency for online-playing, and I think this would have real value, for players and game-developers ... No matter what's the price for a BTC - Satoshis will always be cheap enought.

You're right, it doesn't.  It's a risk I'm willing to take.  I only have about $500 invested in bitcoin.  I know it's a gamble, but if Bitcoin really takes off long term, that $500 will be worth a hell of a lot more than the same amount invested in the stock market.  And if my gamble ends up being wrong, well, I'm only out $500, I can afford that kind of loss.

...The question of selling is basically academic for me anyway since my bitcoins are locked up in a Coinlenders CD, so I couldn't sell even if I wanted to now.

I am personally holding (my BTC). If I had USD to play with, I would start buying at the first signs of trend reversal.

I want to see that ass dive WAYYY down to the floor! >$10 USD FTW!!!! I Will dump loads of $ into BTC then C:

And then, maybe you'll be left holding the bag.  

Really, though, that sort of thinking doesn't benefit individual actors; it isn't based in rational self-interest. Telling people not to do something won't break the loop. Investors are trying to make (and keep) profits, not support the price.

wire arriving monday morning

I have just bought some coins ^^