... if BTC becomes/stays unprofitable to mine (dunno if it is still profitable, not putting any money in mining crap) nobody knows what's gonna happen to the altcoin eco system.
It seems that the next stop is
$197 $200-$270 many hoarders are dumping now and the system will find a new equilibrium between difficulty and hashing power (
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty) as many miners are going to give up and stop mining at an increasing rate as the next half-reward approaches in 2016 see here:
http://bitcoinclock.com/This is probably the reason why some of the POS coins have gained some some strength lately while BTC continues to bleed. IMO the bleeding is just starting, unless the banking system and the dollar start to collapse out of the fake strength created by the war machine. If this happens then BTC will be resuscitated in one big jolt, in the mean time POS may enjoy a new invigorating force (I hope).
Well it looks like I was almost right.. BTC hit $275 and now it is rebounding due to the dollar weakening since Oct 4rth.
http://www.barchart.com/charts/stocks/$DXY
If the dollar keeps sliding then BTC has a chance to recover some value. There are many resistance levels ahead so the dollar index will drive this rally while the dollar weakens against European currencies see here also:
http://www.advfn.com/exchanges/FX/USDEUR/chart The price recovery of BTC should be stronger vs the dollar then vs the euro.
BTC has become a hedge against the dollar index much like gold. See the price of gold rebounding while the US dollar started sliding.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.doFinally it is very possible that the new BRICKS bank may gain strength and this will lead to a much, much, much weaker dollar! see here:
http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/3-reasons-the-brics-new-development-bank-matters/ Hopefully BC will get some new releases like the centric market soon or maybe a sneak-a-peak of Night Trader!
Wow, time to update. The shit might hit the fan; the us dollar may be heading for a major devaluation. Gold is inching up and dollar going down.. Expect some currency hedging with BTC..
Interesting read:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11165982/World-economy-so-damaged-it-may-need-permanent-QE.htmlI think it is time for a sneak-a-peak of Night Trader! Please Dave shows us some love!
edit: P.S I find it strange that some whales want to sell BTC and push the price down?? I expect this will have a reversal soon, maybe they don't understand or believe that BTC has been used as a hedge for fiat.
If big players want to get into BTC they will probably push the "official price" down with some intentional loss and then buy BTC off the exchanges at the lower price and without pushing it up while buying. Not sure where i read it, but the volume that is being traded off the exchanges has allegedly grown massively recently.
That's a very interesting point you bring up, Subtupple. As much of a fan as I am of both a decentralized market and BC apart from a BTC-indexed valuation (and fiat secondarily), there is really no simple analog in the financial world as it exists today. All financial instruments other than pure fiat currencies are indexed to fiat. Fiat doesn't have this issue (necessarily at least) because it's 'indexed' purely on the faith of the institution backing it - and also because it is a
direct means of exchange for other goods and services local to the holder.
In the context of BlackHalo/Night Trader - once there is no longer central exchange(s), and the trading can be for anything else directly (at least potentially)... what means of valuation can truly be considered 'real'? In other words, if no one knows what anyone else considers the value of on BlackCoin... what is the real value? Everything and nothing all at once?
It's definitely an interesting experiment. I believe that those in crypto-land, for the most part, believe that a completely trustless, decentralized financial system will equal freedom... but it's quite possible that even in our tiny little corner of the financial world, that most people simply cannot handle a system where it's virtually impossible to truly quantify the value of ones holdings in any meaningful way.