Does any anyone have an estimate of when we will reach 1M DMDs ?
....i suggest u gather 20 block points like 10000 blocks between them
and trace the avaiable amount of DMD at this points
and then extrapolate that curve into a possible future....
So here is a rough calculation, based on the time necessary to issue the last 2015 block from block 725'208 to block 723'192 (this is the most accurate data I was given
)
According to my calculations, it took 33h 7min 28s to issue those 2015 blocks. So,
33h 7min 28s / 2015 = 33.125 h / 2015 = 0.01643920 h per block.
Therefore, since there are 274'792 blocks between the 725'208th block and the 1'000'000th block, it will take:
0.01643920*274'792 = 4517.3606 h
0.3606 h equals 21.636 min, 0.636 min equals 38s
So it will take 4517 h 21 min 38s from 3rd January 15:43:15 to get to the 1'000'000th block if the rate of issuance stays the same as for the last 2015 blocks. That is of course an approximation, because we only look at the last 2015 blocks, but according to my calculations, we would reach the 1'000'000th block (1'000'000th DMD) around :
3rd January 2015 15:43:15 + 189d 10h 7min = 13th July 2015 1:50:0
Of course, this calculation is pretty inaccurate (only 2015 blocks) but I am sure someone else will have access to more data
And in anyway, we are likely to reach the 1'000'000th DMD faster since more Gh are being added to the mining power each day, no ?
P.S.: I am doing my math homework, and seriously, this calculation is a lot more fun
Well, your calculation looks accurate but…. didn’t your math teacher tell you to read the task description thoroughly before displaying your mathematical proficiency?
In DMD the amount of total coins is not the same as the number of generated blocks, and it was the ”…available amount of DMD…” that Cryptonit mentioned in his suggestion. I’m certain that you can do the same calculation with this parameter instead. As the PoW block reward will change at 1000000 total DMD coins this result will be much more interesting.
But isn't block reward 1DMD ?
The PoW block reward is 1.05, but then you have to integrate PoS block rewards in the calculation too.
True, so since time I calculated is 6 month, that's 25 % POS. So I take out 25 % of the time... Let's see:
around
20th May 2015 then, taking into account POS and 1.05 block reward.
Well Knight, your first calculation was ok mathematically but then you tried to substract a percentage from your first result to calculate something new, which was illogical and incorrect. Percentage is not just a percentage you can use as you see fit, it always represents a percentage of something. Therefore you should be aware of from which parameter you calculate the percentage. Let me give you an example.
Lets say that I solomine 1 DMD per day on average. How many days will it take to reach 100 DMD? Yes, obviously it takes 100 days, but how do we calculate it? Well, we just take our goal of 100 DMD and divide it by 1 DMD/day which equals 100 days (100/1=100). Lets say that my average of mined DMD increase by 5% to 1.05 per day. Then I can’t just substract 5% from my previous result of 100 days and get 100-0.05*100=95 days. Instead I use my formula above and take 100 DMD divided by 1.05 DMD/day = 95.24 days (100/1.05=95,24). As you can see it’s not the same result. And it becomes much more clear if we assume that my average of mined DMD increase with 50% instead to 1.5 per day. Substracting 50% from 100 days equals 50 days, but 100/1.5=66,67. That’s a big difference.
So, in your first computation you calculated how long it would take to generate 274792 blocks, which you assumed was the same as 274792 coins. When you realized that the block reward was 1.05 (see post #4912) and tried to compensate for it you thought wrong however. Instead of trying to substract 5% you should have added 5% to the block reward and calculated how long it would take to generate 274792 coins with this new data, like this: 274792 coins divided by 1.05 coins per block equals 261706.67 blocks multiplied by your own result 0.01643920 hours per block equals 4302.25 hours. (274792/1.05*0.0164392=4302.25). That’s not the same as your 5% substraction: 4517.3606 – 0.05*4517.3606 = 4291,49 hours.
Then you were trying to compensate for PoS rewards by doing yet another substraction, this time by 25%, which is also mathematically wrong. The PoS reward is actually quite difficult to implement in a calculation as it varies a lot depending on the amount (coin pile) that is staking, which is decided by both coin age and randomness. Therefore it’s quite complicated to do a forecast that involves PoS, and the frequency of generated PoW blocks could vary a bit too. So how do we calculate the time to reach 10000000 coins then? There are different ways to do it, but lets look at one example of a rather simple way to do an estimation.
We doesn’t really have to think about PoW or PoS. If we want to try to estimate a certain time when a certain amount of coins will be reached we should concentrate on generated coins per time unit. For example, using the last 7 days as data we find that there were 784178.85 total coins at the end of 3rd january and 769461.74 at the start of 28th december. That’s a difference of 784178,85-769461.74=14717.11 coins. Average coins per day is then 14717.11/7=2102.44. To reach 1000000 total coins there must be another 1000000-784178.85=215821.15 coins generated. Well, we just need to use the formula again and take 215821.15 coins divided by 2102.44 coins per day equals 102.65 days (215821.15/2102.44=102.65).
This means that according to the calculation above 1000000 total coins will be reached on the 16th april 15:39 PM (UTC time). This is only one way to do an estimation, so of course if you use other data, or take other factors in account, or if the average of total coins increase or decrease over time, then the result will be different. So to you all, feel free to present your own calculations and predictions. When using additional data and assumptions, my educated guess is on the 21st april, but who knows. ”Clouded the future is…”
