Is this math correct?
Reverse-ICO reserve is 100,000,000,000 coins (20% of total supply), split on April 18th between everyone on the bitcoingarden thread. If 1000 people participate, that's 100,000,000 coins per person, which is equivalent to mining 2000 blocks.
Sounds legit
Hmm, alright. Well best of luck, but I doubt the coin will get any meaningful amount of mining (and, hence, security) once the market stabilizes, since it'll be flooded.
There'll still be hobbyist miners I suppose, but people won't be able to break-even with the cost of electricity.
Let's say it takes a miner 3 hours to mine a block on a CPU consuming 140W. Then a block costs a miner $0.063. Assuming 1,000 people participate in the bitcoingarden thread, and they each get the equivalent of 2000 blocks, that would mean they would have to refuse to sell under a valuation of their free coins of $126, or the market would need to support $126,000 (296.47 BTC) in sells.
Most new altcoin markets can't support anything near a 300 BTC dump, meaning that the price will fall way below miner breakeven.
And a network where a high-end consumer CPU can mine 8 blocks a day with a 20-second block target is pretty cheap to attack. That's 4320 blocks per day, or 540 high-end consumer CPUs that comprise the entire network's hashing power. That's about 220 high-end servers, like a c4.8xlarge on EC2. At the average spot pricing of $0.32 per box per hour, the network will cost $70.40 per hour to fork, plus an extra few dollars to ensure 51% is maintained.
If you wanted the network to cost, say, $500/hr to attack, you'd need a 7.10x increase in hashing power, which would mean a miner would need a block to be worth $0.4473, making the per-user-reverse-ICO-payout worth $894.60 per user, or $894,600 in total. That's 2104.94 BTC.
The market would need to buy that reverse-ICO at 2104.94 BTC (putting the currency's market cap at $4,472,997.50) to reach $500/hr cost to fork the network.Anyhow, I could be wrong (or missing something major), but you might want to re-think the distribution or coin emission curve before you pay out all those coins. You could do a slow-release over a long period of time (still to the same giveaway users), or something else. If you plan to make Espers very feature-rich and well-supported to justify a $4.5 million market cap, a slower premine distribution would give you time to reach it before people lose faith in the market and the network's security dwindles to pure hobbyist miners.