Is there an estimate on how many tokens one should purchase for it to make any sense ?
I imagine if someone owns only a very small number his share of the fees will be very small so I'm wondering what kind of number makes sense.
Everybody will get the same ROI
so $5 or $5000 if the revenues are 5% of book value, then the return on $5 or $5000 is the same rate.
Realistically what I am expecting is a bit of a pop from the book value to the initial book value multiple. This will happen the moment it starts trading. will this be 1.25 or 1.5 or 2x or more? This depends on the overall size and expectations on the revenues.
I thin that up to a certain point, the more than comes in the more the ROI expectation, due to the larger user base creating a larger network effect. Of course if insane amounts come in so that the funds cannot be used effectively and are just sitting in escrow providing backing to the asset, then this becomes a solid anchor but will slow things down. Unless the amount is beyond crazy and we can end up buying already profitable real world companies and become a company acquisition fund. That could be fun too
So, back to the realistic amount that will be raised, I think we are not going to go past the crazy point where the additional capital is just anchoring us. I am usually able to fully utilize the resources available, not without mistakes, but fairly efficiently. So, after the initial price discovery of the book value multiple, then there will be two phases. Since the revenues are not coming out yet, there will be the "anticipation" phase where maybe some people are too optimistic and when the revenues start out slower than expectations, there will be some correction. This is if the multiple is going too high, maybe this is avoided if I am providing cautions. For BTCD, I am sometimes mentioning the price levels and trying to make sure it doesnt get ahead of itself. So far, it has been stairstepping up nicely and I hope this will also happen with SuperNET.
So when all the major revenue streams start kicking in and we are having half a dozen monetized casino games next year and the user base is growing and now finally we can go from a book value multiple to a PE (price earnings multiple) as the predominant value will be from the expected lifetime cashflows (discounted to present value).
Let us assume a 10000 BTC capitalization, this is a nice $5 mil amount. So, we know the asset backing is providing this $5 mil amount and maybe the investments and traders are boosting it slowly to $6, $7, ... But this is not for the impatient crypto investor. They want 20x on 10 BTC. Of course, we all like the BBR 10x in a week things, but the problem is size. You cant easily do that with 10000 BTC. Actually you cant do that difficultedly
So what sort of PE ratio is a fast growing tech company getting nowadays. Let me check
https://biz.yahoo.com/p/8peeu.html this shows some real world ratios
it seems div yield of 3% is a reasonable rate, so that means 30x the dividend amount is a ballpark market value. The dividend amount is at least 50% of overall revenues, so one valuation would be 15x revenues. Let us solve when this matches the book value. $5 mil / 15 = $333K/yr -> ~$900/day
I think we can assume 100,000 users so this means if we are generating one US penny per day per user, the dividend yield based valuation is matching the book value.
Of course this is just back to where we started. But I was working backward to find the "breakeven" point. At this point even with no book value at all the SuperNET would be worth this. Since it has the assets also, this would make its value 2x. Actually a bit more as having such a large book value adds stability and longevity.
If I am not making any errors in my assumptions, then for every penny per day in revenue SuperNET is generating per user, it will add the equivalent of its book value to the valuation. Here is where some people will go crazy. They will calculate the average amount they are trading, betting, etc. and realize they are spending $10 per day in crypto fees! They will then say that 1000x, so SuperNET will go 100x easy.
Where did that person make a mistake?
yes, the average of 100,000 is not going to be the hyperactive day trader, although in crypto it might no be so far from the median. The altcoin enthusiast is one of the most sought after demographic for advertisers. Yes, we cant forget the click advertising. This is a much more realistic way to genrate a penny or nickel per day per user. But this of course will take more time as we need to find the advertisers, etc.
So, let us go back to the $10/day subset. Is 1 in 100 users in the SuperNET that hyperactive day trader? I think so, maybe a bit more, but let us use this number, so now we have 1,000 * $10 = $10,000 / day, which is a 10x, so we get all crazy and pay up to 8x.
Where did that person make a mistake?
The SuperNET philosophy is to offer lower prices, so the $10 -> $5. Now we are getting to a more reasonable scenario. Keep in mind this is currently a fantasy, but over the next 6 months or so, more and more of this fantasy will become a reality and when the market is believing the initial small trickles of revenues will be growing to the 5 cents per user per day average, then the SuperNET is rightfully earning a 5x multiple.
So, I have some job openings. There wont be any pay until we get funding, but might as well starting the process of finding the right people.
We need a person to specialize in advertising, someone with contacts and experience to setup an automated ad sales management system so that advertisers can easily bid for the ad space within the SuperNET.
We also need someone to be doing the metrics. By analyzing where the money is coming from, you an usually double or triple revenues just by being smart about where the ads are placed, in what sequence, etc. Like how they put all the impulse items at the cash register, its not rocket science, but it is basically analyzing numbers from low level stats and figuring out how to get more revenue per user on average, without annoying them! No flashing, annoying garbage, the best monetization is when the user doesnt even notice.
I also think we need someone with financials experience to create investor reports on how the various portions of SuperNET are doing, from the supertraders, ad revenues, core assets, coin communities, etc.
We also need someone that is generating the stats. This is always requiring analyzing log files or in our case blockchains and getting the data that the analyst will need.
I think these four people are making a monetization group for SuperNET. And they will be able to literally double or triple the money coming in, so I think some sort of performance based revenue sharing compensation would make sense.
For those that are thinking, this SuperNET is sounding like some sort of high tech company that makes software and websites and gets commissions and ad revenues, well, yes that is kind of what I am doing. I do have a bit of experience with this sort of thing, so when I see the micro market caps for the crypto assets I get no temptation to sell any of them. Just look at the real world valuations for software companies and with the 10000 BTC and the infrastructure that is just about finished and all the coin communities, once we are getting real world valuations, then these days of 1.5x book value will be fond memories.
James
P.S. Are there any company valuation peoples?
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