Our DAO member Ivan Beljan shares his thoughts on CRB, Blockchain & Bubbles
Take a look at this price chart:
https://imgur.com/a/uPY30Can you guess what it is? Looks similar to current Bitcoin chart doesn’t it? Time scale on the bottom gives a clue it’s got something to do with the Dot-com bubble. Yes, it’s actually a Qualcomm chart which was one of the hottest stocks during the late 90’s boom. It rose from $3 to almost $70 in less than a year. What would have you thought about it back then? A good long term investment? A bubble?
For me the blockchain, both as technological innovation as well as an investment opportunity, resembles the internet a lot. It’s a disruptive technology that challenges incumbent solutions to a wide array of problems and will change our lives in an unforeseen fashion. Very similar stories 20 years apart.
While I’m bullish on the blockchain as a technology I’m not as bullish on thousands of crypto coins currently listed on crypto exchanges. Internet now is many times bigger than it was in the 90s but internet companies from the 90s did not grow alongside, on the contrary, most are non-existent.
Pets.com was worth $300 million at one point in 1999. It had no customers, no inventory and no idea how to ever make a profit. It did have a website. And that was all it mattered to investors lured by the novelty and recent price action. It feels exactly the same all over again on an even bigger scale with the influx of all the nonsense initial coin offerings this year.
So who will profit from the rise of blockchain technology? The internet parallel suggests market will eventually wipe out the frauds and the hot air projects while companies and projects with actual applications will move on to become much bigger.
Here’s Qualcomm chart after 1999:
https://imgur.com/a/wGkmw A steep run up in 1999 was followed by a crash in 2000 but eventually the company came back and will probably rise to new highs.
Microsoft is an even better success story:
https://imgur.com/a/JX5kGMSFT lost more than 50% when the bubble burst in 2000 but eventually recovered all of it and is now more than double it was at the height of a dot-com bubble.
I believe crypto world is in a bubble now which will inevitably burst. The bubble does not imply something is worthless, it might have just gone too far too soon and my view is the best current blockchain projects will have a price trajectory similar to Qualcomm or Microsoft.
Bursting of a bubble is like a forest fire, destroys many but provides an even better soil for the survivors and the newcomers. As Bitocin and cryptos have reached the masses and mainstream media the history teaches us the moment of truth is very near.
CreditBit has sound technological fundamentals and well-thought distribution model which provide a good platform to build upon. Finding a way to utilize the technology and marketing it to potential customers is key to a long term growth.
Talk to you soon again.
Yours Cm
