I do wonder whether Bitcoin can move up so significantly because its fundamentals are presently rather weak, because of the blocksize issue. Especially when compared to alternative cryptocurrencies like Dash which seem to have solved some of these problems that Bitcoin is currently experiencing. For this reason I am more doubtful then most that we will see the breakout that most people are expecting within Bitcoin at the end of this bullish triangle, though I would love to hear more of other peoples thoughts on this subject.
I can see both sides. Right now there's a 14k transaction backlog and it's a little difficult to see how price could move up very much with such a clogged network.
At the same time, this summer we have a potential trifecta: SegWit, Lightning Network, and the halving. If the first two go off without a hitch in the expected timeframe (early summer), Bitcoin would have: a fix to transaction malleability and somewhat larger "native" tx capacity, a network capable of handling virtually unlimited transactions per second, and less inflation and lots of hype. Those three put together, if it happens, would be extremely powerful news for the price.
I suppose that depends on your perspective within the blocksize debate. I do not see SegWit and the lighting network as solutions to scaling at all, if anything it represents a victory for Core for not scaling Bitcoin. I do not consider off chain solutions to be a solution to scaling at all, and neither is SegWit, the practical increase within SegWit is negligible, while it also makes transactions less efficient in terms of the data that is used per transaction.
In Bitcoin there is a fundamental ideological divide between on chain scaling and off chain scaling. I favor on chain scaling which is why these innovations do not inspire confidence for me, I would much rather just see the blocksize limit be increased. But I certainly do see your points and how it might inspire confidence in others, mainly Bitcoiners I suspect. The rest of the world would be more likely to adopt cryptocurrencies that can scale directly, like Dash. Most well informed outsiders should be able to see that the change in economic policy pushed by Core is not actually economically viable over the long term.
