Well, iCEBREAKER may actually be right (in his own trollish way). There's not going to be any fundamental reasons for growth this year. And all the traders and manipulators money are sucked into another coin which is now #2 in marketcap. So we can see a long period of "cheap masternodes" getting cheaper.
I did some analyses of "that coin's" performance as a store of value and posted my remarks
here.
The thing is, once the pump's done, the "holding" part isn't exactly enticing. To quantify exactly why, I've ascribed some numbers to my
qualitative appraisal of the other day.
What it shows is basically that Ethereum has reached such a high marketcap that it now has to deliver on adoption just to stand still. As that other post describes though, BTC and Dash are in a "store of value" market. They are directly monetary assets as opposed to technological ones and so don't rely on actual adoption as currencies for retail goods & services.
Relative Store of Value Performance - Highlights1. If they all just maintain their dollar marketcap from here, Ethereum marginal loses against BTC are 6 times greater than those of Dash currency holdings
2. Even if Ethereum gets twice the relative growth that Bitcoin or Dash do (marketcap of $2 Billion), it only gains a paultry 10% against BTC, ending up at a BTC price of 0.037 - which it already hit 2 days ago. Dash almost holds its value, losing 3% which is only because Bitcoin is an older currency and further down its emission curve. Dash will perform even better in this respect as its emission decays.
3. However - note the real star of the show, the
Dash reserve market. It just blows everything away, almost equalling Ethereum's gain on Bitcoin with only half the marketcap growth (See scenario 2). With 3-quarters of Ethereum's marginal marketcap growth Dash out-performs it by a whopping 150% on BTC gain due to its emission offsetting properties !!
(
Warning: I slammed this together - please check workings, emission rates and bottom lines before remortgaging your house. If anyone has any corrections just PM me or post in the thread and I'll update accordingly - I already spotted one myself which is that the increase in reserve market holding is greater than the increase in annual emission. Took the masternode returns
from here =(0.31 * 365)/1000 Will adjust if someone can refine those stats. Ah ! On second thoughts maybe it's correct coz only just over half the coin supply is in the reserve market which may account for the proportional disparity. In fact 10% looks right, even conservative.
See here.) Dash emission=7.1%.
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