Being that XCR users get 0 bonus means that I will wait until something close to the last few hours (or days) to invest - makes most sense as it allows me to gather more information regarding how badly my stake will be diluted. Game Theory and all that jazz.
Share dilution doesn't matter in this ICO. It took me a long time to realize this. Dilution only happens when more people show up with more money that only makes Lisk more valuable. BTC or XCR, doesn't matter. Inflow of either increases the price of the fewer Lisk you now hold. Your donation still has the same overall value as when you made it. There is no reason to wait. If you are going to donate to Lisk, just do it!
From a moneymaker point of view:
About the: "that only makes Lisk more valuable".
Just be careful with how much you "donate", because the people that really want in, will buy as soon as they can to gain for the lowest price.
Once the coin is launched at an exchange sell a chunk (or all) immediately or be patient for months.
If you sold a good chunk upon launch, you can always buy back (way) cheaper.
There is no reason why this ICO and launch be any different than other coins/networks.
I stand by my statements but I recognize what you are saying may well be a valid secondary point.
More and more people buying into Lisk during the ICO definitely raises the starting price of Lisk on exchanges after the ICO - that is an undeniable mathematical fact. More and more people dumping on exchanges after an ICO to make money after an initial price pop is an undeniable psychological fact.
If the coin is a "typical" one, then yep, you can buy in at the cheaper post-IPO exchange dump price. The gamble you are taking - HOW MUCH will you then be able to buy if it turns out to be a "hot" coin? If there is something special about the coin that makes people believe it has a bright future, then a higher proportion of people will hold it instead of put it on the market for sale. When it hits that post-IPO profiteering price low, and starts to take off like a rocket, there won't be a lot for sale.
It's a matter of belief. If you believe Lisk is something special that's headed to da moon, buy it during the ICO and get the best maximum overall ownership share you will ever achieve. If you believe Lisk is just another coin, buy it at fire-sale prices during a post-ICO coin dump and price slump, and get as much as the market will allow you to have.
I'm buying my Lisk during the ICO.
