Topic: [ANN][URO] A Real Long Term Currency: 1 Uro = 1 Metric Tonne Urea Fertilizer - page 180. (Read 247332 times)

Just think about this for a minute though...

A couple of multinationals decide the cost-of-capital to make a bunch of cypto-miners and speculators rich is lower than the cost-of-capital they currently pay to make bankers, high-frequency traders, and the natural gas & oil industry rich?

I've heard some amusing stories about fertilizer plants getting scammed by oil/gas companies who sold them a gas field guaranteed to have 30 years of production left. It stopped after about 3.

It's a hell of a lot easier to get a loan to buy a ton of miners that will print the URO you need to build a new fertilizer plant than get some bankers to finance it.

That being said, if you realize at the end of the day fertilizer manufacturers are still going to get scammed when the natural gas runs out, it's a great investment until then.

There are way too many naive kids and guys so desperate to make a buck they will believe anything. A bunch of multinationals who sell to farmers are going to fork over hundreds of millions of dollars to make crypto miners and speculators rich. 
I'd sell you a the Brooklyn bridge but one of you idiots would buy it and then I'd end up in prison for fraud.

True assets, you get an A for originality and effort on those dummy websites and fake companies

okay Harry Reid 

It's possible I am answering my own earlier question, but if you have a hoard of URO, AND a hoard of urea, you want to get the urea sold as fast as you can as long as natural gas or coal prices are low enough for you to make more of it. You probably also want to sell the URO for cash as fast as you can before the market crashes so you can buy more long-term natural gas contracts and some private jets and go for tropical cruises because you just took a lot of speculator's money.

The problem is when there's more URO in circulation than there is urea. If farmers try to trade URO for Urea and the warehouse or production plant has run out, either because there's no obvious way to do basis in URO (right now), or because the plant shut down because their natural gas contracts were worth more than the urea (or URO).

The urea manufacturers (in theory) have an incentive to hoard enough URO to match what they can deliver physically, and this ends up being a way to get around all the regulatory capture required to have a commodities market on the board of trade. But it's a *physically centralized* market, with a couple of big fertilizer manufacturing plant owners that really control it, and the rest of us are depending on their good behavior. It's a lot like the case with Bitcoin and ghash.io.

The reason URO is probably better than bitcoin is you can't hide the location of a fertilizer plant or storage warehouse like you can obfuscate the owner of a bitcoin wallet, so there's an incentive to play fair, at least until the feedstock for your fertilizer plant runs out. (see http://petrodollar.org/ ) The problem here is that in the US, a couple of big fertilizer plants are owned by the Koch brothers, and they are experts at manipulating markets and buying public opinion, and also obfuscate how much oil and natural gas is actually economically recoverable.

Long story short, URO will be better than Bitcoin until the gas runs out. Then it collapses to zero overnight.

Meanwhile, I can always plant more http://blockscan.com/assetInfo.aspx?q=SOYBEANS and sell vegan soybean meal nitrogen fertilizer.

hi dev ,any a big news to promote the Uro ??

We have an up to date block explorer again. Thanks go to the CryptExplorer team. http://cryptexplorer.com/chain/Uro

kool

hoard URO
not
hoard urea

It has a short shelf life.

I'm also quite familiar with the fertilizer price spike in 2008, as I was working on a feasibility study of wind energy to ammonia fertilizer. Ammonia prices (for nitrogen fertilizer) almost doubled in the US corn belt, and it had everything to do with the fact that natural gas went to $12/mmbtu, and prices collapsed back to normal levels when henry hub gas prices went to $3/mmbtu. It was supply and demand, and as far as I can tell, the Chinese tried to tariff their way into a solution which really didn't change anything since they still buy a lot of soybeans and corn from North and South america.

There was at least one ammonia plant (that also produced Urea, most likely) that had long-term natural gas supply contracts that ended up being worth more than the fertilizer. They kept trying to produce and went bankrupt. The other plants that shut down and sold the gas contracts made out very well financially.

I expect if Uro ever is worth more than Urea the fertilizer vendors will just hoard Uro and stop selling fertilizer.

i am curious as to the potential for manufacturers to hoard URO.

if someone were to buy 1,000,000 tonnes of urea with URO,
is there a mechanism to reintroduce URO back into the marketplace?

one case could be manufacturers selling URO at higher than market prices for urea.

Except when governments mess around with policies for natural gas fracking and whether or not LNG can be imported/exported, it is going to change the urea basis, and 1uro == 1 ton is going to result in forced halts in delivery of Urea in exchange for Uro, either because the government demands it, or the supplier will run out.

Gold standard does no good if I want to cash my dollars in for Gold but China has all the gold.

A free market would also allow me to sue Urea producers for CO2 emissions because it's driving the climate zones north and making agriculture more challenging. But since a farmer in Iowa is never going to be successful at suing a chinese coal-gasification-fired urea plant, we WILL have artificial basis above and beyond the natural transport costs, and unless you allow some kind of basis in your Uro for Urea contract, the system is going to eventually explode.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basis_trading: A basis trade profits from the closing of an unwarranted gap between the futures contract and the associated cash market instrument.
(i.e. Free market forces act to minimise the basis)

In a free market, the price of fuels such as natural gas would never sustain a 100%+ difference between different nations because the nation with higher prices will simply import from the lower cost nation until the selling nation rises their prices as a result of demand increasing for a commodity with a fixed supply (gas supply at any one point time in time is fixed). Therefore the scenario presented above would most likely only result from government action, such as changes to export tariff levels, for which there is actually a recent precedent.

In 2008, Urea prices peaked to ~$750 USD when China applied a 135% export tariff to curb a perceived domestic shortage of fertilizer. The market gradually redistributed its demand to other supplying nations until prices recovered back to 2007 levels by the end of the year: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-12/i-wfp121608.php. 

1 Uro = 1 metric tonne Urea is not a soft assumption - it is a hard commitment - much like the Gold Standard Act. The ratifying members of the Protocol have ample ability to sustain shortfalls and turbulences in the market until demand and supply forces recover prices back to the norm - as they have done above.

In summary, the answer to your question is that Uro will experience value fluctuations as a result of world economic events just like other commodities and currencies, but supply and demand forces will restore prices back to equilibrium levels. Because Uro will be easier to trade in and out of compared to traditional futures contracts or Urea itself - price restoration will occur faster with Uro - which is another manifestation of increased market efficiency when compared to existing solutions.

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Current Indian Price as per IPL (Indian Postash Limited (Gov. Body) is USD$305 - $345   on 12 June.  I was able to contact IPL office and confirm  http://www.indianpotash.org/contact-us.php     The UREA is imported into India.  Most Info. is on Dev. Blog

Explain to me how the hell basis works for this.

Suppose I buy some URO and the real dollar cost is say $500/tonne FOB Manly terminal (rail transloading facility being built 2 miles from my farm).

But in India FOB price is $1250/tonne because natural gas (feedstock for producing NH3 and Urea) is a lot higher.

Your assumption if '1 uro == 1 metric tonne' is going to blow up and will either crash the value of Uro (likely) or crash the value of fertilizer (unlikely)

The Uro Protocol is a foundational first step in a long journey. The Protocol assures the value of Uro so that it can be legitimately used the create a more efficient market for Urea trading. If you go through the blog at urofoundation.wordpress.com you will get a better understanding of how the ratification of Protocol underpins the rest of the plans for Uro - some of which have been discussed and some of which are still in early stages of planning.

In summary, farmers will benefit from the point of sale and risk management improvements Uro brings to the fertiliser industry via its guaranteed long term value backing. Weekly updates on the functionality of the new software being developed will gives you a better picture of how all the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle fit together.

So the current protocol offers no real benefit for farmers?  Only to importers who can pay the large taxes upfront, and then sell on the cheap urea at market value for fiat, profiting off the farmer?

Refer Uro Protocol
- Article 2, page 1 and
- page 3 : " ...ACCORDING TO FREE ON BOARD (FOB) INCOTERMS 2010...."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incoterms

FOB – Free on Board (named port of shipment)
See also: FOB (Shipping)

The seller must advance government tax in the country of origin as off commitment to load the goods on board a vessel designated by the buyer. Cost and risk are divided when the goods are actually on board of the vessel. The seller must clear the goods for export. The term is applicable for maritime and inland waterway transport only but NOT for multimodal sea transport in containers (see Incoterms 2010, ICC publication 715). The seller must instruct the buyer the details of the vessel and the port where the goods are to be loaded, and there is no reference to, or provision for, the use of a carrier or forwarder. This term has been greatly misused over the last three decades ever since Incoterms 1980 explained that FCA should be used for container shipments.

It means the seller pays for transportation of goods to the port of shipment, loading cost. The buyer pays cost of marine freight transportation, insurance, unloading and transportation cost from the arrival port to destination. The passing of risk occurs when the goods are in buyer account. the buyer arranges for the vessel and the shipper has to load the goods and the named vessel at the named port of shipment with the dates stipulated in the contract of sale as informed by the buyer .

Its FOB so you would have to arrange shipping after the product arrives at the origin port. Orders start 09 July 2014.