Also, what just occurred to me: The maximum weekly potsize is 100
BTC but the dev can sell more than that if there is demand.
The overflow BTC will carry over to next week's pot, but there will be far more WOLF in circulation during that week.
Even if we stay below the maximum pot every week, the amount of WOLF in circulation will still rise making the fight for the pot more fierce every week.
Or have I overlooked something?
I don't think that we will see prices dive below 0.01 yet next week yet, but with every week the pressure will rise for holders to liquidate their wolf. At any price.
That can cause people to acquire WOLF from the market instead of the dev, which then again will cause the pot to stagnate, causing deflation and dev supporting the markets on the exchange...
Omg, we are simulating a real world economy here! And dev is the federal reserve...
Yes, you are missing multiple factors detailed below:
Significantly it doesn't factor in 9/10/24 week holders, or those trying to exponentially grow their wolf holdings, it only factors in the weekly market traders looking for quick bitcoin.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5245164https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5267129Ultimately if everybody is trying to grab BTC quickly then your statement is partially validated, but even based on one week results the opposite appears to be happening, and those who are grabbing BTC are back for more quickly, depleting the supply faster, forcing benefit for the longer holders. Every sell order is a sensible buy order, from somebody who feels the price will go higher, and often who is willing to put in far more BTC than the seller is trying to get out as profit.
It's very interesting, and we may yet see a sub 0.001 price on market, which strangely would force the opposite to happen longer term, it would speed the process and bring new money grabbing discounted wolf.
My personal theory is that low profit greed and weak hands will create big profits longer term for wolf holders, and that it all pivots on how quickly the money supply is depleted. If you knew you could not get any more wolf tomorrow for 0.001, and that 100 BTC was being pumped in for the next few weeks, along with usual traders and investors, and a 10% tx fee, and massive coin destruction each week, would you sell?
Time will tell though!