Topic: Another Bitcoin Analyst - page 4. (Read 5827 times)

but why? because of the supposed correlation of equities and bitcoin? since december, bitcoin was in a downtrend and equities make a new ATH. There is no correlation, beside being in long term bullish trend.

Agreed. I'm not suggesting bitcoin will stay below its all-time-high forever. I do however believe it won't happen this year, and that it will most likely head lower before going higher.   

Sure thing boss. We hit 1k with less than 0.1% of the global popultion. If even 10% of the world eventually uses it the price will be 100 times higher. If that doesn't happen then bitcoin will never amount to anything meaningful. Pick your horse and hold on.

I wouldn't short, that's a bit much. I would sell over the next few months. That's just me.

I'm glad you brought up the fact that this looks very similar to past all-time-high price cycles. Allow for a different perspective, that it also looks very similar to the upward price movements of the NASDAQ.

The argument here that I think this time is different than the last few cycles -- that it won't move the same way this time around.

This is based off the last 5 years, where equities have gone up, Bitcoin has gone up, and there hasn't been any difference in policy at the Federal Reserve... most markets in the past 5 years have done great.

That is, until last December.

Starting in December of last year the Fed began reducing the Quantitative Easing program at about $10 billion a month, with the expectation that the program will end by September or October 2014 and rate hikes will begin in June of 2015.

Immediately, this change in policy began to negatively affect high-risk investments such as Twitter, Biotech, 3D printing, Groupon, etc... smart money understood the party was over and began the long process of moving into safer assets, beginning with the riskiest assets in their books.

As the program unwinds further, the growth we've had in the broader markets will begin to slow, and ultimately turn negative over the next year. All of which is occurring right on schedule, according to that SP 500 convergence chart.

I agree.

I don t even see why you want to corrolate equities with bitcoin.

That apart, Equities have been bullish for the big majority of bitcoin's life. So predicting the end of the bull run in equities is not hard. Actually everybody and his mother is currently shorting equities.
The correlation with the equity market is coincidence. They happen to be both bullish. No, equity correction during bitcoin correction. Look at the graph they are very different market.

Bitcoin is a currency. We are in the early phase of adoption. It will be seen as a protection against crisis and government. A bit like gold. ( China and cyprus )

Actually i m bullish on bitcoin because of the hand of this non sense market equity.
The correlation with the equity market is coincidence. They happen to be both bullish. No, equity correction during bitcoin correction. Look at the graph they are very different market.

You seem to repeat making mistake.

HODL the line. This wild roller coaster is just beginning. and short equities by the way. Currently at ATH.

LOL, DanV isn't even a poster on this forum and was calling for a big rally after the next low. Sounds like you don't read people's charts and arguments too thoroughly before you go on a tirade against them for being bearish on the market.

I wouldnae class it as overt and irrational doom mongering. More someone highlighting a potentially interesting pattern that they've picked up on. I'll be sitting back and watching things pan out however they feel like panning out regardless.

So you just like dimissing the low lying fruit arguments and not actually DISCUSS anything

Another bear... get a cheap hotel room  and yourself igorr & matthebearcat,Danv,Terra and others can wank each over off while moaning the words "BITCOIN IS DOOMED"

I know you were directing this at someone else, but my thought is that it doesn't matter in the context of markets in that the psychology of investors and traders is comparable to that of other markets. And as the first poster pointed out, it's the same pool of capital. "No money no honey" and all. 

What are your feelings about the oft-parroted 'bitcoin is not a stock' phrase?

Thanks dude! Believe it or not, I'm quite glad people disagree with me. I'd like to think I could be wrong on this, just for the sake of Bitcoin doing well.

But the heckling, yeah it just takes away from a good discussion... Gavin said it best, "I really want someone to solve the Internet troll problem."

Ok let me have a go with some crypto 101 stuff

In a nutshell why is this current breakout going to fail

Considering we are follow our bubbling trend num# 3 based upon previous history

(blah blah blah histrory is no predictor of the future but
a) what are support & resistance ?
b) this biatch seems to like to do the same thing time again
c) humans follow the same patters or a leopard never changes it spots ie the primordal/lizard "AMYDALA" part of the GREED/FEAR response has not changed for millions of years so are we not destined to follow the same responses to basic human emotions ?
d) repeatition in chaos has been proven on both macro & micro lvls ..i.e fractals
)

We have a great deal of infrastrutural dev over the last 8 months ..IRS GOX gone and many many more

So with all this can you explain what is the key driver to now short this market @ 580 over the next 4 weeks ??

Thanks! Comments like yours are the reason I posted it

Figured there had to be a few of you out there!

You either drink the Kool-Aid and sing from the hymn sheet here, or you get heckled!

Interesting opening post!

Very interesting analysis. I have never looked at things from such a perspective, and I must say, this intrigues me. You won't be popular expressing any bearish views on this forum, but I'm sure you knew that. Cheers!

Your argument is comprehensive.

Thanks! And I think I know what you mean.

I can see it playing out as a correction starting later this year into 2015, followed by a panicked shift in the Fed's rhetoric concerning QE or interest rate hikes. This could ultimately calm the markets again.

dont forget MatTheBearCat and our long lost departed brother

Cosmofly who was last report boarding a malaysian airlines flight MH370

Cosmo why you fly ?

We need your Intelect and insight as for some reason there is this bullish trend & maybe your retarded rain man friend can help me understand why me lose much money shorting

Your methodology is stupid.

That's why I'm comparing it to other young markets. The QQQ is an ETF derived from the NASDAQ composite index, which is a good indication of investment in the tech sector.

Bitcoin correlates well to the QQQ's movements.