Topic: Another Small Crash Ahead? (Read 3417 times)

At some mutally agreed-upon price, yes. 

Have we forgotten that for every seller, there's a buyer?

+1

Not to mention it being a virtual commodity, as opposed to physical, which is difficult for many regular folks to grasp.

In fact, I'm also thinking of basically never selling a portion of my coins. If Bitcoin proves to be robust for the long-term, it's very much like gold. And I am not really planning to sell all my gold either, ever. It doesn't really make sense unless you have to, because investments like that are really good at holding their value in the long term. As long as the cryptography behind Bitcoin is solid I think it could very well be part of more and more investors' portfolios in the future. This will also increase the price of one Bitcoin significantly.

Buying to sell with a quick profit is a different kind of investment, those will just make bubbles after bubbles. But if Bitcoin becomes respected as a solid possibility for long-term savings, well, that will make the price soar for real. So it's not only increased trade and economy size that will increase Bitcoin's value, it can also be that it becomes more highly valued as a store of value.

Right now, people still don't trust Bitcoin enough for it to become a real store of value that can be compared to gold. It's too young and the short term volatility of the price makes it difficult for anyone to think of it as "stable". But in the long term I see massive, and very likely, potential in this aspect as long as the fundamentals of Bitcoin stay solid.

And with fundamentals I mean that it stays legal and the cryptography behind the currency remains rock solid. Nothing else qualifies as the real fundamentals, that is simply all Bitcoin needs to succeed because it's so good in itself. It's gold made practical, and that means a lot.

There are people who simply won't sell any mined coins under the circumstances. Like me. It doesn't make any sense if I think the long term is still very solid, which it is, and the price is at or near the lowest point it has been in a long while. The lowest I'm considering selling is 50% higher than the current price, and that'll only be a small amount. Most of my coins I plan to hold for as long as required, years if needed.

Only reason to sell big amounts at these prices is if Bitcoin itself got into trouble from a technical or law -perspective, which hasn't happened yet. The only other reason is if I'd need fiat money desperately, and if I need to sell because of that, it certainly won't have any relevance what the BTC price is. Then I'd just sell.

There are obviously other reasons to sell as well such as trading in the short or mid-term, but that is not in my plans either right now.

Because when BTC cost $.75 to produce and $32 to buy there was no discussion of whether mining or buying was the right way to go.  Massive hashing power was being added as quickly as hardware came in stock.

While there may not be a direct correlation between price and difficulty as a result of "buy and hold" strategy which worked well during an uptrend there is most definitely an influence of one on the other.

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php

4% =/= $.20

I mine but hold long term. I have no reason to sell until I either go on an expensive trip, or need to retire, since I can easilly cover my mining costs with my regular income.
When I do sell, i admit I don't bother waiting for a high price, since when I sell it usually means I need the money now.

Yes, but that mentality just means there's even more downward price pressure.  As soon as the price rises, people holding on to their coins in anticipation of a higher price come out to sell.

Most miners save up all the can in anticipation of a price swing.  Mining is a long term investment.  You mine for months, you don't sell when it's at a big low, you wait for it to be at the highest point.

Maybe in the USA or Canada, with the cheapest electricity on Earth.

Are you assuming that all miners sell what they mine?  I don't understand why a decrease in difficulty / decrease in cost to produce would necessarily equate to a decrease in USD/BTC.

Well, from my thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/economic-equilibrium-and-roi-for-miners-34978

It depends on how you factor in the hardware, but I'm going to say about about $3.50 now and about $3.30 after the difficulty decrease.

atm it looks like diff will go down at most 5% this time round

And what would be the current price for creating a coin? The average of course.

Disagree because the cost to produce is going down because of the difficulty change...  Unless the difficulty/hash rate stabilizes or increases we will see a fall in the price to ever successive new lows.

 

I would be surprised if we don't see a further drop in the next few days due to the difficulty decrease.

Gold has no immediate correlation with bitcoin price, but does imply consumers have lost interest in expensive rare commodities that could serve as alternative currencies in times of crisis.  The market for bitcoin is somewhat similar.  Right now, gold is taking its predicted tumble and it appears consumers may be trying to jump onto cheap investments in equities instead.

I agree that the drop was very predictable. I mentioned one scenario weeks back that basically means the price will stay within the $4-$6 range for a relatively long time, at least in Bitcoin time.

Where it goes from that range is not sure, but I think that will be very meaningful. Basically it's the market deciding if they think Bitcoin has a bright future or a dim one. A spike below $4 wouldn't signal doom for me yet, but a stable price below $4 would certainly be a bad sign.

Now it's just wait and see.

Time to readjust arbitrary long-term trendlines downwards, and come out with new useless projections?

I believe that the price will go near the 4.5 support line. But never breaking it.