Every single fuckin thread i read about in this speculation thread just keep saying,"Halving is coming,keep holding bitcoins,it's a buy time price will rice"
I have some question for everyone."Really?" I mean what will happen day or 2 days after halving."Panic selling",Right? That won't make the fall in price? Please correct me anyone if i am wrong.Will not most of the people think now it's time to sell at the halving?
So if i don't want to sell and want to keep holding can i ever take the same benefit of selling like the people will take at halving? I want technical answers please.
Is there any other factor that can hopefully make the bitcoin not fall so much after halving because i know and you should accept it too.Sell orders will be sky rocketing at that time.Doesn't it?
There are no fundamental reasons for a price rise as a direct result of the halving. The biggest factors affecting the price will be increased awareness of Bitcoin caused by the event, irrational expectations, and all the hype between now and then.
Because the expectations of a price increase are a major factor, the conditions are ripe for a bubble. My expectation for the upcoming halving is that the price will behave exactly as it did with Litecoin's halving last year. That is, a bubble that pops just before the halving.
My belief is that the timing of the bursting of the bubble depends on how quickly the price rises and at what point enough people believe it is a bubble. If it rises very quickly, as Litecoin did, then the bubble will burst before the halving. It is more subdued, then the bubble will burst after the halving when the halving disappoints and people cash in.
There is always a chance that there will be no bubble. There is also a good chance that other external events affect the price more than the halving hysteria.
My primary assumption is that the price will rise over the long term, so I have bought a large amount and I continue to buy when I can. Whether I take advantage of a bubble or not, I will come out ahead if my assumption is correct.
But, this is how I plan to take advantage of a bubble:
When the price starts to go crazy I will start selling. After every 20% increase in price, I sell 10% of my bitcoins. At the top of the bubble, I will have many fewer bitcoins and a lot of cash. Even if the bubble doesn't pop, I am still way ahead.
But, the bubble will pop and the price will plummet. And when that happens, after every 20% price decrease, I buy back 10% of my bitcoins. At the bottom, I will have more bitcoins and more cash than when I started.
Here is an example. Starting with 10 bitcoins, the price jumps to $500 and it looks like a bubble, it continues to about $1000, and then it drops to $800 and I start selling.
Sell on the way up:
Price | BTC | $ | Total Value |
$500 | 10.00 | $0 | $5000 |
$600 | 9.09 | $545 | $5999 |
$720 | 8.26 | $1140 | $7137 |
$864 | 7.51 | $1789 | $8278 |
$1037 | 6.83 | $2497 | $9580 |
But, it's a bubble... Buy on the way down:
Price | BTC | $ | Total Value |
$800 | 6.83 | $2497 | $7961 |
$667 | 7.51 | $2041 | $7050 |
$556 | 8.26 | $1623 | $6215 |
$463 | 9.09 | $1241 | $5450 |
The result with this buy/sell strategy is that you are ahead of where you would be if you did nothing, no matter what happens.