Topic: Anti-mining movement with their own agenda READ ON - page 3. (Read 8504 times)

He'll make soup out of your fingers, for the muddaland!

Yep, that would be the smart thing to do then..and when difficulty falls, turn your mining rigs back on!

I just worry that bitcoin will be a speculators' currency...I'd really like to see it succeed as a vibrant and viable REAL currency so I can buy all kinds of junk with it. The day I will be able to pick up a kick ass Sandy Bridge gaming laptop with bitcoins is the day I will have a massive grin face

I think you're right, I've only met one person called Vladimir in person and he was Russian. Therefore I think this Vladimir may also be Russian. The only Russian government agency I can think of is the KGB. That means Vladimir is a KGB agent. You know it makes sense .

Once spending $80/month on electricity isn't profitable, I'll spend $80/month on bitcoins instead!

No. There is no linear nor consistent correlation between price and difficulty. One new miner joining doesn't guaranty one new buyer on Gox.

I pitty the f00l who buys new hardware to mine I don't think it's worth it now to go all out and built yourself a huge mining farm with NEW hardware. If you can find a really really good deal on used hardware (as cheap as possible) then yeah go for it. But even then there are many factors to take into consideration; each one of them will affect your profitability in a different way than it might the other guy.

I personally don't give a damn if new miners join the game. If they wish to run at a loss that's their personal choice and their right. I do think that the majority of them will leave the mining game once they see that the $80 extra on their power bill has earned them only a meager 5 BTC.

are you... confessing?

That's exactly what you would say if you were the same person.

But wait! That is exactly what I would say if I were also Vladmir!

hes talking about me! yeahh!


=P im included here

btw im finally getting my hardware today. I know setting it up will be a bitch, but ill let you know JJG if im doing as i hoped

But why? What's your reasoning? If the exchange rate rises and popularity continues on an upswing (someone is speaking in front of the CIA soon, Time is covering Bitcoin, etc.) then it's hard to imagine difficulty increases leveling off any time soon.

The increases don't have to continue for a whole year. 15% (current trend) for a few months is enough to end profitability for anyone hoping to purchase new mining hardware.

In the other thread I even ran the trend assuming only 5% starting now (wholly unreasonable) and the guy who dropped $3000 + $151/month on his mining rig still wouldn't break even.

I seriously doubt difficulty will continue to rise at 10% every two weeks for the next year.

As for vladimir, I got the impression he's well educated and generally speaks a lot of sense.

I am not associated with Vladimir in any way.

But I suspect I'd have to release my birth certificate and school transcripts to make you happy.  

I registered and posted my short analysis after I saw someone post about spending $3000 on hardware and $150 on electricity every month just to mine bitcoins, without having taken rising difficulty into account. I make a quick financial model that factored in rising difficulty and realized he'd never come close to breaking even unless the BTC exchange rate skyrocketed. Even then, he'd be better off just buying bitcoins.

This mining mentality and the simple profitability calculators floating around the internet have blinded everyone to the fact that difficulty is rising rapidly.

The estimated next difficulty is 16% higher than the current difficulty. And that's after only TWO WEEKS. Let's just assume that it will only rise 10% (1.1 multiplier) for every future block, which is unlikely with Bitcoin gaining in popularity and so many people blindly jumping into mining without running the numbers.

Current difficulty: 92348
In 2 weeks: 92348 * 1.1 = 101582
In 4 weeks: 92348 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 111741
In 6 weeks: 92348 * 1.1 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 122915
In 8 weeks: 92348 * 1.1 * 1.1 * 1.1 * 1.1 = 92348 * 1.1 ^ (8/2) = 135207
In 6 months / 26 weeks: 92348 * 1.1 ^ (26/2) = 318,810 (3.45 times current difficulty)
In 12 months / 52 weeks: 92348 * 1.1 ^ (52/2) = 13,117,380

It's easy to see that if difficulty climbs at 10%, whatever mining hardware you buy will only produce 1/3.45 = 29% as many BTC in just 6 months. If it rises at 15% (like it has lately) then it will produce even less. For people buying expensive, brand new, dedicated hardware, this means you will never recover your investment.

The only way to make this work long-term is to assume that the exchange rate will go up. If you truly believe that, then forget about buying hardware; Just buy BTC directly and let them appreciate rather than letting your computer hardware sit and depreciate.

Not trying to scam anyone, just trying to share some simple math.

I wish I was important enough to have an alter ego. 

This thread is great. I wish I had bought MORE hardware for what it's worth.

I think biggie is aka slush, he just made a new user to hide it. He wants more small miners to his pool so he can get more fees. It doesn't matter to him that it makes no financial sense for the miners.

I have no opinion on the motives of anyone else, but I discourage newbies from buying hardware for mining because I wish I hadn't. Overall I expect to have spent about $1000 on hardware and electricity by the time I'm finished, which doesn't seem like much compared to others here---but if I'd taken that $1000 and just bought bitcoins directly with it, I could cash it out now and have a profit of about 500-600 BTC---much more than I've generated so far, and with far less work. If you built a rig last month and you're paying attention to prices, you ought to be regretting it.

It's a tough call. Personally, I tend to help where I can but I can't in good conscience recommend people get into mining without carefully considering the risks involved. I don't think my position is that unusual, and it's not that dissimilar to Vladimir's (I'm not really familiar with JJG), nor it is dissimilar to many other people here. That, coupled with the lack of any obvious similarity between Vladimir's and JJG's writing styles, makes me highly sceptical that Vladimir and JJG are the same person.

I suppose even if they are not the same person, they still preach the same thing. I see what biggie is going at here. The fact that they discourage newbies from mining. We dont know why they do it for sure, but we do know that they do do it. I just hope that there are more people that support newbies mining than not. I guess now its not a big issue, but if it ever comes to a point where they STOP helping newbies, or give false information, then something is wrong there. but as long as there are people who are willing to help others, then thats why this forum is here. I hope vladimir and/or JJG still want to help people with mining issues and setups, not just discourage them.

If you guys plan to only discourage people, then the real honorable thing to do is to leave the forum.

as far as i can see though is that they both discourage and help people so all is good.

Fine. Then present it as opinion. I have no problem with your first post, my problem was with your second post - as you jumped from "my opinion is that Vladimir may also be JJG" to "Vladimir aka JJG": without allowing Vladimir of JJG the chance to respond, you jumped from opinion to a statement.

Unlike you I do feel it matters what Vladimir and JJG say, just as I feel it matters what you say. Opinion needs to be clearly identified as such, not least because otherwise you're potentially libelling two individuals. Easy to forget that online, but there are individuals behind online personas.

It doesn't matter what they or he says, it's just my opinion and i feel i need to share it with those who might see something in it. Just like anyone else can give his opinion here i'll respect that too.

Whoa. You've jumped from "Vladimir might be JJG" to "Vladimir aka JJG". Any chance of giving them a chance to respond before stating it as a foregone conclusion?

I can't personally see any resemblance in their posting styles, but regardless of my opinion - or your opinion - giving people the chance to defend themselves against allegations is the decent and honourable thing to do.