Topic: Antibubble? Less expected scenarios for 2016 halving (Read 1984 times)

They will not know for sure if price would go up, maybe most of the people who want to buy before the reward halving have already bought long ago and after reward halving no one will buy  


The demand can be very high or very low, but I guess it is on the higher end of the spectrum. This is very easy to tell due to asymmetric options in bitcoin investing: When you want to get large amount of bitcoins, you can mine; but when you want to get rid of large amount of coins, you can only sell

Mining is the lowest cost and have many other privacy benefits, serious demand will first seek their way into industry mining operation. This will have least impact on market,  give them chance to accumulate large amount of bitcoin without raise the exchange rate

If the serious demand start to shrink, then the first thing we'll observe is that the difficulty will drop significantly. In fact, the difficulty has never dropped too much recent years, means the demand is still very strong: The hash rate keeps expanding means that investors not only invest in bitcoin, but also invest in infrastructure, have long term plan. Bitcoin is a virtual world's currency, in order to grow bitcoin, people have to grow this virtual world too, and mining is one of the important infrastructure

And after reward halving, when mining could not bring enough coins, hash rate might drop temporarily, and those investors will turn to market to purchase, and raise the price to a level that mining is profitable again

History has shown, that Bitcoin has a tendency not only to fulfill, but to surpass value expectations. The reason for this is that Bitcoin is not just an arbitrary asset in a speculative bubble, but a new technology that offers tangible benefits over existing ones. So if someone adopts Bitcoin, this normally means forever (or as long as something fundamentally more beneficial comes along).

So I don't think an antibubble is a likely scenario.


The reason that Altcoins do not rise as expected after a halving is imho associated with the lack of attachment to these coins (reference or "base" value). Altcoin-miners will mine those coins that offer the highest profitability. If the reward drops, they are quick to jump to another more profitable altcoin.

ya.ya.yo!

Mined coins only make up a small amount of the coins sold every day. If there's more demand it's possible more hoarded coins will become available. A rise is far from guaranteed just because there are fewer new coins arriving every day. If there's not enough demand then the supply becomes less relevant.

If miners know (and they will know) that price is going up, before the halving they will try to not shell, so there will be a shortage of mined coins before the halving, triggering a rally.

Is this correct??

Even if you anticipated it, there are some hard facts that will have a deep impact for the supply

For example, currently lots of mining farms sell part of their coin to deal with the mining cost, I guess at least 1000 coin daily are dumped on exchanges. When reward is cut by half, they will have significant less coin to mine, and also much less coin to sell. So the daily coin sell pressure from miners will be cut by half. On the other hand, since they are paying the same cost but mine only 1/2 of the coin as before, all of their coins will be deeply underwater, thus they can not liquidate those coins at a loss, but only hold on to them, and scale down the mining operation. So the overall impact on daily coin supply will be significant

I don't think you fully understand bitcoin yet my friend, B is not a possible situation. I'll support all the transactions my self if every other bitcoin miner leaves the network.. you'll have to trust I don't double spend with 100% of the hashing power though.

However the odds of that.. are lower than me winning the lottery 10 times in a row.

but then the winklevoss ETF launches after the contraction and all the sellers panic buy again. just another wildcard. the ETF application will be 3 years old next summer.

guys like carl icahn, mark armstrong, and even donald trump are all warning about the bond market bubble that's likely going to be ready to pop in 2016

i think 2016 is guaranteed entertainment.

What about an anti-bubble from early speculation? Let's say the price rises as we approach the halving date and speculators try guessing the top. Then when it happens we discover that speculation has driven the price too high and the market corrects. Crash! we fall back to Earth.

Just guessing. I like the idea of considering "less expected scenarios". 

i think we make the block halving more interesting than it is. i guess we'll see a higher price before the halving, and a drop after the halving to around the $300-$350 level.

The network doesn't "care" whether difficulty goes down and the network weakens. 1800 coins will be mined every day no matter what.

The only thing that determines price is how much people are willing to pay for a bitcoin.

I think it's the opposite: It's now in the collective mind that we will have a pump for the 2016 halving. This psychological factor is one of the main reasons big pumps happen. It happened with the Greece incident too. Now every time we have Greece type scenarios BTC will pretty much pump guaranteed.

In this case it's about numbers. The electricity needed to generate a bitcoin will double. So will the price, or the network strength will weaken. Those are the two options.

I don't expect the price to crash because some mining farms were unable to compete with the rest and dropped out. There will always be other competitors taking their spot. And talk about altcoins gaining traction and surpasses bitcoin popularity? I don't think so. If it were to happen, it would have long time ago. Right now, I don't see any of the alts worthy enough. 

I understand the possibilities explained in the OP but to be honest I don't even want to entertain them with much thought. I think it's close to 100% certain that the price will rise significantly as a result of the halving next summer. If you put me on the spot & asked me to predict the price at the next halving I'd say around 500-600 USD.

Only people that don't know how markets work, anticipate a halving bubble. A bubble is simply a masspsycholgical phenomenon. If everyone thinks there will be a bubble I guarantee - you nothing will happen.

it's not fair to compare it with what happened recently with litecoin, bitcoin halving will probably face a different route, because first the amount of coin that will be halved are not the same, and total coins in circulation is almost x3 in litecoin

also the demand of litecoin versus bitcoin is a joke, not accepeted in any big merchants

interesting. is this your analysis of LTC? has this been the case historically?

a possible scenario, which has played out with many alts, is that pre-halving hype ends up overshooting. by the time the actual halving arrives, bitcoin could be on its way down from the pre-halving rally

Ponzi scheme or not price of litecoin is still over double what it was 2 months ago.  And halving is less then 2 months away.  I think it will be similar with bitcoin.  Significant price increase when 4 months to go.

There is so much heterogeneity amongst potential purchasers of Bitcoin in their level of understanding. Sophisticated Bitcoiners fully expect the halving, but the newbies and the not-yet-newbies have no clue about the emission schedule. The halving will provide a narrative scaffold for predicting another bubble, and the prediction will become self-fulfilling, because it will seem plausible that others will find it plausible.