Topic: Any ASIC worth for Investment? - page 2. (Read 4020 times)

Good luck with that! You get 0.0878 BTC a day. In begining. Diff inc 40% each time... so do the math. So even when diff would not increase you would use 68 days for HW break even. When you consider diff and elec you probably never get your 6 BTC back.... -> fail investment

Well the problem is, that process shrinking does no more shrink the relative transistor costs in the amount we have seen a few years ago. If its no more possible to shrink the relative costs of a transistor this would mean the end of moors law. Thats why the whole industry is in panic: See this famous NVIDIA flame for ex: http://www.extremetech.com/computing/123529-nvidia-deeply-unhappy-with-tsmc-claims-22nm-essentially-worthless

However this freeze are basically good news for miners. Since it would mean a halt in cost saving advancements, and makes they're mining gear longer profitable operational. The only problem is, that the current products are highly overpriced and there is a huge cost saving potential.

Have you forgotten how technology works or is it just me.

Intel and the big computer companies are just barely beginning to scratch 20 nm in marketable products, their R&D are working on 14 nm.  If billion dollar companies/industries take this long to drop nm's, what makes you think bitcoin mining hardware is just going to sail through them?

We'll be at 28 nm for 5 years at least.

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

i ordered it wednesday night and got my tracking number today (friday night/saturday morning) so i expect it to arrive on wednesday. from estimates

hardware breakeven = 36 days cha ching

Eventually you reach the limits of thermodynamics then you buy because they won't be anything faster coming out later.

22 nm — 2012
14 nm — 2013
10 nm — est. 2015
7 nm — est. 2017
5 nm — est. 2019

Not sure how many bitcoins will be left by 2019 though? 21m - 17m (2019 est.) =  4m?

Sure Cex.io is worth it (My knowledge so this is a referral link)

Butterfly Labs SC Singles.

Hi
Is there any ASIC out there worh as an Investment?

I was thinking about buying a KNC miner. When I assume the delivery in mind-end Nov this device gets obsolete in End of feb when Black Arrow Prospero X-3 arrives. So I expect a yield of 2000USD in this period. Manybe you get 500-1000 USD afterwards. So when I buy I would probably get a loss of 2000USD+
This scenario repeats and repeats; just look at the amount of avelon miner which will never get they're return.
WHY? Cuz the Investment in ASIC is currently stupid! Just do the math:

A 12 inch 28nm Waver costs around 2-3 k USD in production. However is sold from the fab for 10k (high quantitys).

So a typical Waver would be:
2.4 GH/s / mm2 at 28nm a 12inch Waver has 70000 mm^2 = 170TH

yield is not 100%-> 150TH

so the price would be 6 cents/GH!!!!!

Of course everithing has to be tested and packed and this produces significant costs. The R&D+initial production cost must be covered as well as PCB and PSU, MCU etc....
So lets say production costs are 30 cent/GH. Best offer ATM 1.5 USD/GH. There is huge potential in cost reduction, and this will probably also happen from generation to generation of asic's making the old ones obsolete before they returned the investment. This will happen over and over again until prices reached very close to production prices (when will this be??). Until then its better to invest in directly in bitcoin than in mining.

PS: I'm not blaming any ASIC company for ripping customers off. They probably have higher production prices, this just shows how low it can and probably will go in pricing.
So to me an investment in any offered ASIC seems completely nonsense. How do you see this?