Topic: Any bets on BTC? (Read 1069 times)

The Bitcoin becomes like rare art scenario worries me; will the miners abandon us in search of higher rewards from a digital currency that scales better?  How many transactions per period are required to make it worth their while?  If they do jump then does Bitcoin become vulnerable to a 51% attack?  Do the holders of rare art Bitcoins have to pay a fee for parking value for long periods of time without transacting to sustain their security?

how about parity with gold, this is possible.

the new bet should be when it hits $200 August?

Let's be real men (well, the women can be men if they want but I hope not); when will it hit 2^10 = $1,024 or approximately $1 trillion in market cap?

1) it could go to zero and never come back, e.g. fatal architecture flaw, etc. -> people die (hitmen hired, etc.)
     unlikely? but not impossible
     this situation would be a rather ugly push (everyone (or next of kin) get's their bets back)

2) it could level out at some amount below our target held down by some unexpected constraint
     confidence shaken but not broken
     if/when other currencies lose value against the Bitcoin the constraint won't hold it back
     potentially long delay until payout

3) word spreads, an ETF is not stood up very quickly
     in this day and age of instant news enough non-retirement funds battle their way in through Bitinstant, Coinbase, etc. walking the exchange rate up in a few years to our target

4) word spreads, an ETF is stood up soon
     An ETF could bring enough value in rocketing the exchange rate to the target in mere months.

5) it could eventually become the new global reserve currency replacing the US dollar
    It just can't scale as is to handle untold zillions of micro-transactions but it's plenty good enough for a low enough transaction rate for long term investments, i.e. Bitcoins effectively become a collectable like rare art

6) some other scenario

I'll take a stab at it; Tuesday, January 14, 2014.

$1000 by 2014 probe

Sky is tthe limit

Good call.

In light of today's performance on MtGox, it looks like my first instinct was right.  They say you should never change your mind as one is often correct the first time!

I think I'm going to have to revise my guess to 3/30/13 in light if BTC's continued awesome performance against the dollar!

Damn, the market insight in this thread is insane. I'm gonna be rich.

Have a feeling it won't hit it. But if I was to guess, I'd say 5th of April

I guess it'll go up in the long run, but with some crashes here and there.

Right now BTC is already at $101 (€79) on bitcoin-central.net - when I bought at €17 a few weeks ago I guessed they'd reach $100 by September - so now I'm saying $500 by June - after a bit of a rough ride of course!

I'd buy so hard.

It would be hilarious if somehow Bitcoin crashed down to $20 on the first, then recovered the day after.

I say it's going to hit a wall soon. Maybe by may

I change my vote. Bitcoins are going for $92+ on MtGox right now. Mid-tomrrow to tomorrow night.

The twenty ninth of March; In two days!

End of March. Maybe even the 30th,

I'd guess on April Fool's Day

I say this time in 2015.