Topic: Any chance that's our current channel? (Read 2074 times)

One last update in here.

It's increasingly obvious to me that we are in some variation of the downwards channel I pointed out in my first post. I'm not going to claim I know the exact parameters of it, but I believe it's similar enough to the ones below (or the one in my OP).





In addition, we just saw a daily MACD centerline crossover, after hovering around the centerline for a while already. It's not inevitably a confirmation that we're in a bear market, but it sure takes a solid amount of sideways movement and decline to get to this point.





Next, daily CMF turned negative, for the first time during the post-December consolidation. Note the similarity to June 2013, where the same event marked the final leg down of the post-April consolidation/bear market (the downtrend lasted for about 1 more month back then).








Finally, looking at the medians of median-price range during major swings, we now crossed below the lowest of those middle points I track (corresponding to the 2nd violent downward movement following the December double top). Comparing this to the 2013 consolidation period, the picture is difficult to compare, I admit. In 2013 we saw a declining series of those middle points, while the picture now is less clear to me, but one thing is clear: we are now below the lowest of the medians, and previously this corresponded to a continuation of previous downtrends.





Putting it all together, I see more and more evidence we're in another downward leg of the post-December consolidation period. If you're optimistically inclined, I will add that it might be the *final* leg, so whether you plan to sit it out (i.e. hold) or not is up to you. To me it strongly looks like, unless we pick up some serious upwards momentum tomorrow or on Monday, we're in for another period of decline (which I can see to last up to another month). Note though the conditional above: the situation can turn around if buying pressure suddenly reappears (maybe if we get some great news from gox on Monday?), but more sideways action or more decline in the coming days makes the bearish case much more likely, in my opinion.

jup. don't know about you, but I made nice profit on tonight's swing so far. now, let's see if we're indeed stabilizing/recovering, or another panic wave follows.

I'll just leave an updated pic here



 

Channels work well until they don't, but they're usually pretty safe to bet on

Really? That's your response? Phenomenological speculations? I had you tagged as a bit more insightful in the past.

It was a rhetorical question. I could have also written "hey, look at the depressing channel we're in".

and, looking at it again, some hours later, waddayathink where we found support?

EDIT: before someone complains: yes, the original channel is broken. but closing above it, twice, within a tiny error margin, is likely not a coincidence.

Re: Any chance that's our current channel?

There is no such thing as a 'chance', because there are no such things as 'contingent events'. There is only one possibility: the one and only possible reality. There aren't other ones.

I love it when a plan comes together. Well, sort of.

Looks like we're fighting for ~680 (the long running daily EMA I mentioned above), but I'm not convinced we'll stay here tbh. That we went through 720 with almost no resistance is not a good sign.

(I'm using Bitstamp prices, by the way. mtgox is dead, and those who still use it, be it for trading or price analysis have no one to blame but themselves)

~680 will probably continue to be a point of support/resistance, but if we can't hold it, I expect the trend residing currently at ~590 to provide support (it did so on Dec 18). In the medium term, I can see us trading in a range of 530-630, based on what looks like plausible analogues to the post-April '13 recovery period to me.

Note that I'm not saying we'll go straight to the 530/630 range. In fact, we might not touch it at all. It's just a target range I see as likely if we don't hold the current range today/tomorrow. Prices below 500 are extremely unlikely atm though. Slightly less unlikely, but still not what I would expect is a "full" recovery back to 800.

The 100 Daily SMA is also sitting right below 720, so that's additional support. The 200 (which was the point of resistance at $66) is at around 420 and climbing by about $3 a day.  Which means in about a month it will be around $520ish.  The longer this correction continues to plod along the higher these really historically powerful support zones come. For instance, if we don't get to $620 within 60 days from now, we may very well never get below that level again.

thanks for clarification.I was a Little embarrassed.   The restraints (*if*) you made I got of course.[I still can read]

heh,my narrowed lateral movement range is not broken yet

but scraping 

705 is the low point of the channel in my original post. 680 is a long-running daily EMA that has served me very well in the past 3 months. But please note: I didn't say we'll reach them. I said, *if* we get back to 730/720, and we *don't* find support there, I would expect those two points to be the next likely points of volume/possible support.

sorry oda.krell but I cannot concur with the price-figures abovementionend. I don`t find them at my graph (bitstamp data as well). Revise please.
Anyway I aggree with your thoughts.

Looks like we'll stay in the channel a bit longer, huh?

I think the real question right now is whether we'll stay above the (recent) low point, 720-730 (bitstamp). If we don't go near that level in the next day or two, we're fine I think. Probably back to boredom at 800 then

On the other hand, if we do approach 730/720, I expect things to accelerate a bit, mainly for the psychological reason that we're running the risk of a series of lower highs *and* lower lows. Next stop will probably be action around 705 (lowest point of the channel above, as of now), then 680 (long running trend acting as point of high volume support since at least December).

Anything below that is speculation right now, and would bring us back into December 18th territory... and I don't see that happening right now.

EDIT: just took a look at the 6h charts and momentum and CMF look *really* ugly right now. I'll upgrade revisiting 730/720 from 'not betting on it' to 'could be, could be' ^_^

as a hodler I don`t catch in any knive

It's funny how living through two other crashes trains you to see these as buying opportunities. Lotta money to be made catching falling knives.

I see you being optimistic,so am I

offcourse we will outbreak this channel at some point/time. i was referring to now we are sliding into the broader lateral movement range. Don`t panic ,Folks (@oda.krell:I know you are not panicking)

yes, but still very much possible that we'll end up like we did after the 27th: below 800, but above 700, and slowly moving up again on lower volume. If we break through 700 tonight though, all bets are off.

It's breaking down.

Why not? At some point it will have to break out, up or down, no matter which direction.

Although I will say this much: I won't go as far as calling it (as MatTheCat does) "manipulation", but it seems to me that every high volume movement *downwards* (and tbh, those are the only high volume movements we see on the Western exchanges for the past 2, 3 weeks) is followed by a slow trickling of buys, on much lower volume, bringing price back up to where we started before the dump. Assuming for a second it is in fact an attempt by some large market players to stabilize the market, this strategy only works because volume is so ridiculously low at the moment... as in: it's not going to be something going on indefinitely. By the way, if you're sceptical about the initial observation (higher volume on the way down than on the way up), 6h, 12h CMF is picking it up quite nicely, as it should.

Alright, so here's the take home message: There's enough evidence for me to believe that we should trade below 800 soon, and stay there for the time being, but I am in fact cautious putting my money accordingly because of the evidence I see for a counter-balancing force at work. If this force really exists (in the sense of a single or small group of large participants) I would expect them to get to work *right now* though: bringing price above 800 and keeping it there, otherwise I'd say they run a risk of downward momentum getting too large to be contained.

I think we are in a lateral movement since 2014/1/7(maybe 9). which has narrowed since 2014/1/29
I doubt we will outbreak off this channel.

That's a valid channel.
Here are some more. Notice the mid-line of the large gray channel, and how it supports the price at times. That makes it a fairly reliable channel. However, as with any channel, it only supports until it doesn't. A breakdown would create an acceleration channel down, and a breakout would have a target of around 50% of this channels height.


The red is just the horizontal range I've been trading the last month