Topic: Anybody know of a chart with Gox influence removed? (Read 1562 times)

It's impossible to know what % of money was due MtGox'ing bot and whatnot and what % was legit bull pressure. In any case the big pump helped putting Bitcoin on the map and on mainstream news, thanks to it im here now and learned enough about BTC to be here for the very long term.

I concur that the only fact we know is how many coins there are in circulation at any given point. We are all speculating here and since a chart without Gox influence does not exist, we will never know just what such a chart looks like. Even the report can't 100% confirm what was really going on. Only that a shitton of coins were bought throughout 2013. Some speculations say this was in an effort to reimburse stolen coins to Gox users and as the rally got heading full steam, panic set in on those at Gox trying to acquire coins as the price was running away. I don't know what was really going on, so I simply stated my opinion and even used "alleged" since we don't know if Willy and Marcus were even operated by Gox. As far as the bots selling, I wasn't aware that they were. I don't know if I missed that part or if it wasn't in the report I read at all.

Why the price hasn't gone below $100 yet is easy... Think of it like muscle memory. Market participants get conditioned over time to believing in something by mere habit. Whales pushing the market around to skim profits makes for a slow descent, especially when they know that not driving it straight into the ground is more beneficial for the longer term. The longer this goes on, the more conditioned everyone gets and the slower the progress becomes.

I can say that without the April 2013 rise like it was, China may not have had enough interest to get involved like they did in November. And that is enough for me to believe that $1000 would not have happened if it weren't for those bots' relentless buying.

Then why has the price not corrected back below $100?  It has had 18 months to do so.  Also, according to the wizsec report, the bot(s) reversed course and started continuously selling on January 28th and into the month of February, possibly accelerating the decline that month.  By your logic, the price may now be artificially low.  Perhaps it should have stayed closer to the all time high. 

Since the bots started selling, this indicates to me that they may not have been bitcoin moon bots but bots programmed to trade on technical conditions, and when momentum indicators started turning south in late January 2014, they started selling.  For this reason, it could have been legit money from someone oblivious to the financial problems at gox, vs a hacker whose only goal was to accumulate and withdraw as much bitcoin as possible. 

Either way, the only thing we know for solid fact is how many coins are in circulation at any given point in time.  Even today, there is a possibility that some of the exchanges are playing with fake fiat and/or fake bitcoin.

People bought at $1000 "with real fiat money" because get rich quick emotion and FOMO. No other reason. They thought it would go to $10,000 next. That is all.


New ATH's would have happened, sure, but not $1000 without the lead exchange going there first.

yes as you say people really did pay real fiat to get hold of bitcoin at $1000 a time prices. so its "real'. but the bot took it up on gox and the other markets followed. surely you do not believe the chinese exchanges went up for other reasons?
also besides the willy bot we have had in % terms even bigger drops afterwards eg $31 to $2

the key issue is when do we consider we are out of the crash that happened afterwards ie is $177 the price it would have got to without the willy bot spike or have the current manipulators stalled the drop at $177 from going much lower.
No one wants to wake one morning and see it at $60 (which is where I think its low might be).

But bitcoin is growing fast enough that even buying at current prices eg $270 (even if it goes to $60) in a year or two it will seen as a 'good sensible buy'

rule #1 buy and hold
rule #2 see rule #1
 

Exactly, as they say, there is no bad publicity, only publicity. Willy has done his share of business for Bitcoin, just as a Silk Road did and Andreas Antonopoulos did etc.. You do get what I am trying to say.
Willy got us to the spotlight, where Bitcoin technology is allowed to shine and show wht it can do.

I am not worried about the Bitcoin future without another Willy bot. We will be just fine, technical advancement and superior technology will take over from here!

Willybot is next to irrelevant, as far as I'm concerned. Last ATH was China driven and almost no one in China was buying on MtGox. People still decided to part with fiat for bitcoins at that price, so that was the price. In fact, humans bought bitcoins off me at that price, so how is this anything to do with a bot?

the price was around 60-90 before the bubble started so if you removed that we have x3-x5 increase, a natural x3 increase in less than two years which isn't that bad

Well, that's the point. God blame gox

I think that some exchangers are operating on fractional reserve, and this could be the case. Bitstamp always refused to post a proof of solvency, even after the hack...

Here is the most logical explanation that no one seems to want to post:



No conspiracy theories here.  This is just a chart of actual price action on an exchange using (presumably) real money.  Perhaps the psychological influence of rising prices on gox could have caused people to transfer money to other exchanges and buy when they otherwise would not have or perhaps caused sellers to not sell when they otherwise would have, but that is just pure speculation.  The best thing to do is look at actual price data on an exchange that we are fairly sure was using real money.  There was no arbitrage at the time.  Mt gox was an island unto itself and many people were suspicious even then when gox was trading consistently at a 15 to 20% premium to other markets for months.  We may never know what really happened at gox, but the all time high was 1163 on bitstamp and 1095 on btce.

Besides, even if rising prices on gox influenced real money on other exchanges, it has been a year and a half so I would say prices have settled at their natural level by now, assuming there in no fake bitcoin being sold, in which case the price may be abnormally low.  

My guess, bearing in mind that opinions are like a-holes (in that everyone has one) is somewhere in the price range of what Tzupy is saying - maybe $300-400.  Of course we can never know really, but I think that would be a decent target for end of year, as I think the bulls have been calibrated to expect moon now, when reality actually bites hard and brings us down to earth to some degree.  I mean 100%+ gain in a couple of years isn't that bad compared to buying gov't T-Bonds and 'espoused' inflation rather than 'actual' inflation.

I'm just finding myself impatient (as I guess a lot of us may be) waiting a few years to find out if that's reasonable or not, or whether the world is going to implode on itself, beforehand.

A 'slow bull market' is probably what's best for bitcoin, even if it doesn't fit the wet dream instant gratification idea.

Not possible because of arbitrage...

Crickets.. Clearly, he's formed a pact w/ trollypop to keep spreading lulz about the bitcoin price as we keep the ship sailing forward and upward. It's gonna be a very tough time going forward for the likes of these two.

Hey didn't you sell your coins for $10?

Without gox I think the current price would be around 20-40 usd. With a past ATH around 70 usd.

While not that bearish, I agree with the analysis. IMHO (because it's pure guesswork) we would have reached some 300$ - 400$ instead and, most importantly,
we would have already left the bear market and entered a slow bull market. Since the largest wave of speculator fiat comes after the previous ATH gets broken,
because it kind of guarantees a 4x win, it would have been much easier to get that new wave of fiat (after breaking 400$ instead of 1200$).

The doomsters who claim total Gox rigging conveniently choose to forget the China thing. That eventually dwarfed Gox in November 2013.

As for April 2013, that can be thought of as a pure Gox happening which might've set it up for November. We'll never be totally sure.

I guess May 2014 when it hit $680 or so can be considered the first Gox free bull run but that could still be a spiritual hangover from the previous year. Onwards and upwards regardless. 

We would be below $100, imho. No troll, but without Gox' alleged relentless pushing through both 2013 rally's, there wouldn't have been $1000, and after this bear market, even with the China power, I think we would be back below $100 assuming we even broke 100 in the first place. But without the early 2013 rise, who knows if China would have even had the interest for the late 2013 rise?

Yeah, understand and agree.  It's just that everytime I look at the chart and people talking about how much value it's lost on a time frame that suits their statistics (as opposed to the huge amount it has gained on a longer time frame), I want to remove that large climb and get a feel for what may have been a possible less exuberant alternative, even if the +/- error is still pretty large.

We can draw lines on the charts all day long, but just a little more data might show a very different story perhaps(?).