Almost no country took it seriously enough. There is an exception, which we'll come to in a moment.
Governments are reactive rather than pro-active. They will act when there is a visible threat, not when there is a potential of a threat. This is why a virus with a 5-day incubation period can wreak such havoc. If you wait until there is an outbreak before you implement a lockdown, then you're 5 days too late, the virus is already spreading. Why do governments act in this way? It is because in general their main aim is not to protect the population, but to protect the economy. They are not going to take costly pre-emptive protective measures when it would cost millions of dollars to do so. They are not going to stockpile medical supplies and equipment against the
possibility of a future pandemic. And they are sure as hell not going to shut shops and businesses until the very last minute when it becomes unavoidable.
In retrospect of course, I'll bet a lot of governments are wishing that as soon as the initial news surfaced in China, they had just shut their borders or implemented a 14-day quarantine for people entering the country. That would have kept economic damage to a minimum. The reason they didn't do this is because they weighed the
definite economic effects against the
possibility of an outbreak occurring, and went with the option that is best for the economy
right now. It's what they always do. Democracy is great, but is flawed like any system of governance. We are locked into 4 or 5 year electoral cycles, which promotes fatal short-termism. Governments are habituated into making decisions that affect the current moment. They won't spend money that will hurt now but show benefits in say a decade's time. They would get hammered by the press for spending money needlessly, whilst some future administration would take all the credit for a decision made by their predecessors.
Underestimating events such as the COVID-19 pandemic is hard-wired into our societies.So where is the exception? South Korea. The purple horizontal line across the middle of the chart.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Epidemic_curve_COVID19_certain_countries.jpgEver since confirmed cases began cropping up, disinfecting crews have been blanketing South Korea’s trains, subways and crowded public plazas. The government is pushing out mobile phone alerts with details about confirmed cases and spots visited by those who tested positive; apps alert users when they are near potentially infected sites. Residents showing symptoms flock to drive-through stations and mobile booths for quick, cheap tests, getting the results by text within hours. Those testing positive receive health kits with masks, sanitiser and other supplies; investigators interview them for details about where they have been and who they have been in contact with, requiring those in self-quarantine to provide regular updates via an app. All the information is uploaded in real time on a map online.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/south-korea-coronavirus-flatten-curve-covid-19The backbone of Korea’s success has been mass, indiscriminate testing, followed by rigorous contact tracing and the quarantine of anyone the carrier has come into contact with. As of March 19, the country has conducted more than 307,000 tests, the highest per capita in the world. The UK has conducted 64,600; The US even less that. “You have countries like the US right now, where there's a fairly strict criteria of who can be tested,” says Kee Park, a lecturer on global health at Harvard Medical School. “I know people personally who have symptoms that are highly suspicious, but they don't meet all the criteria and so they're not being tested.”
“[South Korea’s] extensive testing is a very valuable tool to both control the virus and understand and measure the effectiveness of the responses that are taking place,” says Michael Mina, assistant professor at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University. “It’s allowed individuals to take matters into their own hands and make social distancing decisions on their own, both to protect those around them and to protect themselves from those who are infected around them.”
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/south-korea-coronavirusSo why did South Korea react so quickly and decisively whilst other major economies were dragging their feet? The answer is that South Korea has been here before.
Q) What best enables a country to respond quickly and decisively to a pandemic?
A) Previous experience of a pandemic.
South Korea had a
MERS outbreak in 2015. Fatality rate 35%.
Have a look at Hong Kong and Singapore, too. They had experience of the
SARS outbreak in 2002-4. You will find their lines towards the bottom of the above chart.
So I think we can draw comfort from this. Evidence suggests that all countries will be better prepared next time. And there surely will be a next time. Whilst the current pandemic is terrible and is costing thousands of lives around the globe, we can be thankful that the fatality rate is comparatively low - a couple of percent at most, compared to say the 35% of MERS. If COVID-19 had that not-unheard-of fatality rate, w'ed be staring at an apocalypse right now, instead of a mere global emergency.
