Topic: Anyone have fundamentals to support a higher value on BTC? (Read 5577 times)

I use it, but I get on the exchange, buy what I need and send. They don't take BitPay (essentially the same thing on the merchant side just done for them at a fee). In and out of BTC is the key for merchants if you don't want to gamble with your revenues.

I agree that sounds about right to me. 


As for Google searches, there are Google searches for Bitcoin because it has been a crazy ride and everyone is talking about it.  However, I wouldn't expect that to mean another big spike.  Most people even who don't invest will look at the volatility today $105-$266 and not even think about such a risky endeavor.  It would be great if they were worth $1000 and a lot of larger holders sold out for profit.  Then it would make manipulation and speculation more difficult.  Sadly I believe that is a long time away.  If Bitcoins were worth $1000 a piece then the actual usage of them at places like Silk Road would have already driven the price there.   I'm curious if anyone bought and sold goods today with Bitcoin.  I'm not sure how that would work but it sounds like a huge win or loss for one party or the other and not anything I'd want to do.

The "fundamental" value is probably no more than 30. Most of the value is speculative, which is fine; future adoption of bitcoin is looking more and more bright

those are the old metrics, on with the new!   i have no idea what they are yet.

I see a new record for searches as of Monday via Google trends for 'Bitcoin'.I also saw someone mentioned that Gox accounts were at the 18-19,000 count last I heard.

Well after the last run up and increased volatility I sold off last night as I said here this morning.  I think I came back to this thread about an hour before the sell off started.  Sorry to anyone who held on or lost money.  I know I've made the same mistake myself many times.  Investing and making money means never letting emotions affect decisions on when to buy and sell.  The board is crazy now with all kinds of post.  I'll be back buying coin once the price stabilizes again or if there is some better news on fundamentals.

Well there is a huge difference.  Cypriots money was in Euro which they do not control.  They don't have to ability to print more to make payments like us Americans do.  It is impossible for a country to go bankrupt when they have fiat and print money.  It simply creates a long term issue of unsustainable debt.

Edit - Since you sound like a non-American I just wanted to add FDIC means my money is backed by Federal Insurance.  Based on our history and recent events in Cyprus I feel confident they will not suddenly try to tax my accounts.  Cyprus was a haven for money laundering which is why I think they thought about the tax.  I have no short term fear on the dollar or my accounts.

Agreed, I haven't trusted a mainstream bank with money since 1998.  I keep it in FDIC backed CU's.  Looking to move it to Frankfurt in non-euro form possibly at the moment.

No, but I'm looking to store my wealth long term, and for that I find it safer to ride the BTC roller coaster wherever it will take me than to trust a bank with my money.

And then again, I'm sure the Cypriots thought "My bank savings are safe for the near future, at least" just the same as Americans are thinking right now.

I have those fears long term for USD but not in the near future.  You think a devalue of the USD is likely in the very near future, more so than a bubble burst?


My research has shown golds value is speculation based only it has a lot of trust just like a USD.  I believe gold is also a bubble and will start buying it again at $1200/oz.  Maybe $1400 or so if it stabilizes there.  I'm not so sure it is safer than USD.  Gold does not have a lot of industrial usage and no one knows for sure if all of it that is "owned" actually exist.  A lot of people own pieces of paper that represent gold stored in underground vaults.  Whether all that gold exists has yet to be proven.

It implies that atleast 900.000$ is currently needed to go into bitcoin per day to keep the price stable at its current price for long term

if less than 900.000$ is poured into bitcoin per day, the price will go down eventually (as new miners profit margin diminish due to hashpower catching up to the price rise)

a fact greatly ignored by pretty much everyone advocating bitcoin

I'm still holding. Not because I think the price will go up further or that the bubble won't pop. But because I truly believe my wealth is safer in Bitcoin than it would be if it were held in a bank. The looming bitcoin crash will look like nothing compared to the banking crisis, which has already started and has been escalated by Cyprus and shows no signs of slowing down... I used to think I would've cashed out into dollars by this point, but that's looking to be a lot riskier than just holding my bitcoins and using them to buy whatever I need.

of course there's also the risk of a bug in the bitcoin protocol causing a crash to $0, but that risk remains the same with or without a bubble.

The only sensible option for cashing out your bitcoins right now would be to convert them directly into a hard asset like gold, silver, or real estate. Those are all less convenient and harder to secure than bitcoins.

Was this meant to imply a support for the value of a coin or just an interesting tidbit?  If the former I say usage determines value not the worth of what is being mined.

You're not supposed to know that

With BTC at $250 it means that $900.000 are mined every day..

Last post on this thread was 4/5 at $140.

Today we hit $258 (five days later) and I got out yesterday.


I was a bull and now I believe this bubble can not contain much more hot air.  Any other bulls starting to change their tune or are a lot of you guys still thinking fair market value is $1,000-$10,000, or maybe 5 billion (heh)?  A lot of people chimed in this thread and I read every word of every post.  Never did see anything tangible to support the price.  I only saw more unjustified speculation and ignoring of some huge risks.  The biggest risk I can forsee are, again, a more trusted source than Satoshi-WTF popping up over night.  If Silk road switches to another currency (with less unknowns and risks) I wonder what will keep the BTC value up?  Will all other vendors take note and jump on the bandwagon?  Will the BTC ATM guy who hasn't dealt with regulations yet decide to switch as well?  Are you going to be able to get out before the massive dump?  Will those of you asking people selling early if they regret it, later regret holding on if you can't sell fast enough?  After 15 years of non-stop investing the only regrets I remember are when I was buying high and selling low.  I never let emotions and numbers affect my decisions.  Only facts and evidence drive my strategy having made many mistakes holding on too long too many times.

I think these are very valid concerns and there are logically more likely paths than $1000 or more for a BTC.  With this high of price I would of expected to hear more from the current code developers.  Surely they own coin and don't want the price to fall.  There are unanswered questions still about many mysterious and I don't see those being addressed.  That has not helped my confidence level as price increases while value is speculation based.  And, don't worry if the price hits $1000 today I'll have no regrets.  I've already made more profit than any investments recently and I'm happy.  I would regret if I didn't already get out and the price hit $100 again though.  Anyway I'm out and will be watching the price for now and move on to other ventures.  I'm going back to lurker mode and just stay up on current events until something big happens, besides more price increase.  Happy investing folks!

+ It's a very young market; young people tend to be more bullish, they usually live with their parents and don't even know what self-sustaining feels like

+ Internet effect (huge increase when this goes really viral) (look Mt. Gox queue)

+ People aren't investing big % of their wallet like they'd do with bonds and stuff like that, and are more inclined to risk

+ Bots placing offers at 0.1 push the price up while unexperienced pseudo-little investors just click "buy LTC"

+ DDoS attacks didn't cause a bubble 2 days ago

+ Prices are going up even though DDoS attacks happened

+ Even though prices are (very?) pumped now, BTCs are a great invention and will became the only internet currency in a distant future

+ People know about DDoS attacks/Gox lag and future raids will have smaller impact

+ We know bubbles can occur in wall street, but current BTC market is very different in many ways (2011 bubble was hack-induced)

So you are telling me that in those three hours a lot of people suddenly saw the light and understood the essence of bitcoin, and therefore they pushed its price up by 20%? LOL.

The truth is that these newbie speculators want to get rich quick. They buy bitcoins because the price rises. Then the price rises because they buy bitcoins. That is how bubbles are made.

That said, I am essentially on your side and see the same things that you see. Bitcoin is an invention of fundamental importance. The idea of a high-tech currency that is independent from government meddling and from sucking banks will never go away again.

If bitcoin survives another couple of years, I agree that its price may well rise, and I am hoping for that just as you do. But in the short term we will keep seeing hordes of crazy pseudo-speculators, price bubbles, volatility, electronic theft, failing exchanges, Ponzi schemes, attacks from governments, the whole lot. And there is still the risk that bitcoin fails, for one reason or another.

The good speculator has a balanced view.

Yes, there will be many of those people. Heck, I was one of them in may 2011. And they will begin to watch the price, read about them, and in the process learn about bitcoins, their promise and their advantages. They will this have joined our community being the proud owner of a few bitcoins that soon will be considered cheap, and, importantly, having become enthousiastic about it, they they will spread the news.



Yes, you can make a nice short term profit that way, as many have (and many now curse themselves for doing so).
Ofcourse the price will go down some day. Perhaps soon. Perhaps even to single-digits (which I very much doubt personally).
But for this to happen, there has to be some extremely bad news. Otherwise, everyone will just view it as a great buying opportunity. Having missed the boat once, many will not make that mistake again. Interestingly, the fork chain did not do it. The news has to be REALLY bad. Government ban may do it, but the FinCEN statement shows that gov ban is actually not imminent, in fact they appear to be regulating it properly, paving the way further for mainstream adoption.

Even if there is a problem, we have seen in the last year they will be solved eventually, and bitcoin will rise from the ashes. This makes a huge difference. Last year, for all we knew, the crash could have been the end of it. It was the first time it went up and back down and many thought that would be all that ever came of bitcoin. Now we know that it can and will rise again unless there is a very good reason for it. So far, I haven't seen one.


Who cares about a dip tomorrow except for day traders? (especially on a friday/weekend). How about a few months from now? Next year? Ofcourse the price fluctuates. Has there been a 51% attack today? gov ban? somebody made cryptography useless somehow? So why should bitcoin crash to oblivion tomorrow?


Ofcourse we are not there. That was actually the point, you can benefit now from the insight that we are -going to be- there someday. And a few years only! That is a true revolution. Think back how long it took to implement internet widely, cell phones etc. These were recent examples of revolutionary enabling technologies that went from nerdy to mainstream. It took a decade or so, and I fully expect bitcoin to follow those examples (and put my money where my mouth is).

Hmmmm perhaps more users on these forums than ever?