I've been around for a few years and its very difficult predicting the end of the bear market and the end of the bull market.
Back in Aug 2015 or so, when it broke that yearly resistance of $300 (or so) I assumed it would be a bull trap and head back down to the $200 area, it never did and confirmed the end of the bear market however I didn't buy at $300.
Same with the bull market end at $20K, I assumed $2K was the top, then $3K, then $5K, then was absolutely sure $10K was the top and even shorted there, then assumed $25K was the top and missed the target and had to sell on the way down at $10K.
I can 100% relate, $3k was the top then, then $5k, then EVERYONE was certain $10k was, then we blew past it to $20k, and then people were screaming for $30k.
Ill say this, if we see a 50% re-tracement, that is your sell signal. Dont hold your bags in denial, like many including myself did. Its a brutal market, the people who sold at $2k, and $3k kicked themselves, the people who didnt sell at $20k or $10k or even $6k kicked themselves to. Its hard to win, at the end of the day you want to walk out with more than you walked in with.
My biggest fear is that in the next rally we see Bitcoin reach $100k, but then run up to lets say$500k, when do you sell? You don't know, but you should sell slowly on the way up.