Topic: ardent speculators: consider shorting before 4th May 00:00GMT (that means 3rd) (Read 3635 times)

No I did not think the bad news stops here and exchanges survive -- so slow it is to publish editorials, in which I should've explained a few days ago -- I think the market ignores China or feel reliefed for the moment, hence there is a possibility of small rally, and those who shorted should not risk getting themselves in the predicament.. Long term outlook for China is still bad.

They already closed. Thats why we got the run up.

The joint statement of Chinese bitcoin exchanges mentioned that they will stop margin trading. This means that Chinese shorters have to close their positions soon and it might lead to a final short squeeze.

Have I missed something? Do you now believe they will be allowed to continue operating in some form?

You are right. I am happy to learn this. I did not short it myself (because the price had not reached the line 480$ or 450$ which I marked for shorting), for anyone who did it anyway, I am inclined to think now is the time to reverse your position, in case the market rally by 10th May.

Well, let's see.  They released a joint statement today saying they are still doing business and the price really didn't dip all that much on May 4th.

Just a short question as I am not Chinese and can only read it using Google Translate, which is far from optimal. I just went over to the Chinese sub-section of this board to see what their sentiment is concerning the PBOC and the whole exchange thing. For as far as I could tell, they are about as much in denial as the people on the speculation section. Could you please shed some more light on what you think is the current sentiment concerning bitcoin in China?

Ants and trees can coexist and even if the tree tries to threaten the ants, they might call their friends, the termites

But as you said, even if it gets lower, even if much lower, bitcoin is not finished. Chinese support would indeed be great, but in the long run bitcoin will survive with or without it. It's just so exhausting to see the prolonged attack from behind from PBOC, delaying the success of bitcoin. But maybe even this is a good thing in order to build up some infrastructure in the meantime. More ATMs, more businesses, more acceptance every day. More fuel to the rocket, no matter if the launch is this year or the next or 2016 or 2020.

Speculators:

A week ago I said 480 was safe to short, I personally would short at 450$ too. If you decided to short anyway, your position now is good. I do not think the bottom of this May is not there yet, wait and it will get cheaper - but this time I am not as sure as I was when I predicted the 350$ bottom (which is precious to 24-hour). Judge for yourself - but you can also feel safe that it will not grow much higher before 10th May.


The China situation will not be finished by 10th May deadline. The worst punishment has not yet happened. If the market rally after 10th May, it may be an opportunity to short again, but expect less profit than the guys who shorted by 16th May, because China impact is getting weaker and weaker. It is hard to say how much China's bad future influnces prices - I recently wasn't closely following how the world is developing, thus I have no facts to base my judgement. But I consider rise in Bitcoin price will get more punishment from PBOC, because PBOC intend to make Bitcoin look like a bad investment option - it is becoming a face issue. Keep in mind that PBOC has a large, large arsenal, and they didn't take out their big weapons yet. The Dec 2013 announcement showed PBOC has the backing of weapons outside of banking system. In Chinese words, this is a fight between an ant and a tree. There will be a day when our tiny tiny bitcoin doesn't shit this world's wealthest organization (PBOC) and their powerful friends. Bitcoin is not over.

When I say 'punishment' I am speaking in the tone of PBOC.

I cannot answer your second question as of now.

Fällt der Kurs jedoch auf Tages- und Wochenschlusskursbasis unter 335 $ ab, müssten Abgaben bis zum Unterstützungsbereich bei 250 - 270 $ einkalkuliert werden. Unterhalb von 200 $ wird es kritischer, dann droht ein Rutsch bis zunächst 120 - 130 $.



http://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/bitcoins-situation-spitzt-sich-zu,3730811
 Translation:

Good questions. I'd also like to know if you think the opening of a usa exchange could offset the closure or insolvency of the Chinese exchanges? I've heard on here that one was in the works. Also if places like Argentina and Brazil adopting btc could help offset bad news out of China.

two questions for you:

1: Do you think this whole china situation will be finished by the 10th May deadline? Meaning that anything bad that can happen in china regarding bitcoin should happen within that deadline?

2: do you think that the long term bottom will in the end be the $340 that we have already seen? Do you think it is possible that we are going to break that?

That's just not how things are done. I'm sure OP can suggest some outcomes, but remember this is not about what the exchanges want. PBOC is instructing their banks, not them.

+1

OK but what would happen if the exchanges would just say, can we have that in writing? Or speak to our lawyers?

Even if they could force them out of business eventually, it would take a lot longer than just "understanding what it wants" and complying without resistance. What would happen if they did not "want" to understand ?

Actually, the questions that you pose expecting the answer "no" - that's pretty much the case.
Take a look at OP's articles on bitcoin.de. PBOC doesn't even tell the exchanges what to do. It expects them to understand what it wants without it needing to be that direct. The fact that it even needed to discuss it directly with smaller players was a major anomaly. And no, the legal system is not like the one we take for granted in the West.
Bottom line, PBOC can and will choke the exchanges in China by denying them banking relationships. They're 'free' to carry out as much business as they want outside of that framework.

I don't understand the Chinese system. Maybe OP can elaborate.

PBOC is not a lawmaker and not a court. Can they even tell banks what to do? Over the PHONE!?!

Is there no legal system in China? Why don't these banks and exchanges just continue to operate until they receive a court order, which they can then challenge?

Nulla poena sine lege, not in China or what?

Whatever, bud. Here is what is really happening: wealthy are steadily buying bitcoin-see secondmarket thread.
Once it is almost all produced (93.75% in 10 years) and bought, it can only be redistributed.
PBOC would be better thinking about ghost cities and overheated real estate in the mean time.

I like to think of the sharp and persisted drops as a feature of the downtrend and not neccessarily a feature of the news. Notice that if a bad news occurs at a tipping point right on a the downtrend line, it will cause a sharp and persisted drop. But if the news occurs somewhere else where a drop is not supposed to occur yet, it will have a much lesser effect or no effect, or there will be an immediate rebound. The market just waits for excuses to do things.

As for news, the next wave of Chinese news will be when banks identify and close the specific accounts used by exchanges and not just posting a notice. After that, there will be news about how police get involved. Finally, there will be the exchanges themselves closing.

Then there is news about topics completely besides china, such as goxcoins, hackercoins, and the government's 600,000 coins.

Thank you for your insight OP.  Are you expecting another ~$50 drop, or more?  I am not convinced the bear market is over yet, the downtrend is still very strong, with or without negative Chinese news.