Are miner pool thieving away? | Bitcointalksearch.org

flower1024

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 16, 2013, 07:02:58 PM

Quote from: flower1024 on November 16, 2013, 06:43:27 PM

Quote from: DrHaribo on November 16, 2013, 06:35:25 PM

Why would they interfere? That's only superstition.

The chance that a proof of work (aka share) mined at difficulty 1 will produce a block is 1 divided by the difficulty.

So your hashrate determines how many lottery tickets you get, and the difficulty determines how likely each lottery ticket is to win. That's all there is.

please note that as soon as a block is found all old tickets are thrown away and new are printed Wink

Well no tickets are thrown away as soon as they don't win.

Hash = losing ticket
Next hash = losing ticket
Next hash = losing ticket
.....
1 hash or quadrillions of hashes later
.....
Next hash = winning ticket. Block solved.

you are right.. i forgot that for every share the odds are exactly equal

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: flower1024 on November 16, 2013, 06:43:27 PM

Quote from: DrHaribo on November 16, 2013, 06:35:25 PM

Why would they interfere? That's only superstition.

The chance that a proof of work (aka share) mined at difficulty 1 will produce a block is 1 divided by the difficulty.

So your hashrate determines how many lottery tickets you get, and the difficulty determines how likely each lottery ticket is to win. That's all there is.

please note that as soon as a block is found all old tickets are thrown away and new are printed Wink

Well no tickets are thrown away as soon as they don't win.

Hash = losing ticket
Next hash = losing ticket
Next hash = losing ticket
.....
1 hash or quadrillions of hashes later
.....
Next hash = winning ticket. Block solved.

flower1024

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Activity: 1428

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Quote from: DrHaribo on November 16, 2013, 06:35:25 PM

Why would they interfere? That's only superstition.

The chance that a proof of work (aka share) mined at difficulty 1 will produce a block is 1 divided by the difficulty.

So your hashrate determines how many lottery tickets you get, and the difficulty determines how likely each lottery ticket is to win. That's all there is.

please note that as soon as a block is found all old tickets are thrown away and new are printed Wink

DrHaribo

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Needs more jiggawatts

Why would they interfere? That's only superstition.

The chance that a proof of work (aka share) mined at difficulty 1 will produce a block is 1 divided by the difficulty.

So your hashrate determines how many lottery tickets you get, and the difficulty determines how likely each lottery ticket is to win. That's all there is.

Trongersoll

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Quote from: DrHaribo on November 16, 2013, 05:37:03 PM

Quote from: Trongersoll on November 16, 2013, 04:41:34 PM

It isn't just the increase in difficulty that causes you to earn less. any increase in hashrate will adversely affect how much you earn.

Not until the next difficulty adjustment.

Even though my take isn't mathematically sound, i can't help believe that it is true. I can't help but believe that at some point one miner's production will interfere with other's. Especially with such high hash rates.

DrHaribo

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Quote from: Trongersoll on November 16, 2013, 04:41:34 PM

It isn't just the increase in difficulty that causes you to earn less. any increase in hashrate will adversely affect how much you earn.

Not until the next difficulty adjustment.

Trongersoll

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Quote from: Johanna on November 15, 2013, 11:52:43 PM

Quote from: Trongersoll on November 13, 2013, 06:18:02 PM

hmmmm simple answer. if your hashrate is constant, every week you will earn less Bitcoin than the previous week. This is because of new hardware coming on line. How much less you will make depends on how much hardware comes online how quickly. Bitcoin is designed to try and create no more than one block every 10 minutes. Adding hash power causes bitcoins to be made faster. the dificulty is adjusted to compensate for the increased speed. Every time someone does something to make themsleves more bitcoins you make less.

The pools aren't taking more than their advertised share. It is just that there is a lot of competition to get a bigger share of a finite number of coins.

Not every week but every difficulty hike... about once every 11 days...

It isn't just the increase in difficulty that causes you to earn less. any increase in hashrate will adversely affect how much you earn.

Johanna

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Quote from: Trongersoll on November 13, 2013, 06:18:02 PM

hmmmm simple answer. if your hashrate is constant, every week you will earn less Bitcoin than the previous week. This is because of new hardware coming on line. How much less you will make depends on how much hardware comes online how quickly. Bitcoin is designed to try and create no more than one block every 10 minutes. Adding hash power causes bitcoins to be made faster. the dificulty is adjusted to compensate for the increased speed. Every time someone does something to make themsleves more bitcoins you make less.

The pools aren't taking more than their advertised share. It is just that there is a lot of competition to get a bigger share of a finite number of coins.

Not every week but every difficulty hike... about once every 11 days...

Trongersoll

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hmmmm simple answer. if your hashrate is constant, every week you will earn less Bitcoin than the previous week. This is because of new hardware coming on line. How much less you will make depends on how much hardware comes online how quickly. Bitcoin is designed to try and create no more than one block every 10 minutes. Adding hash power causes bitcoins to be made faster. the dificulty is adjusted to compensate for the increased speed. Every time someone does something to make themsleves more bitcoins you make less.

The pools aren't taking more than their advertised share. It is just that there is a lot of competition to get a bigger share of a finite number of coins.

fizzmine

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Quote from: opentoe on November 12, 2013, 01:53:10 PM

Quote from: os2sam on November 10, 2013, 04:18:49 PM

Quote from: DrHaribo on November 10, 2013, 03:38:35 PM

Guys we were all newbies at some point, nothing wrong with that

opentoe is no newbie. Has been around quite a while now.

I'm a complete Newbie to mining. Take it from the horse's mouth, trust me.

Hey as long as you know that you don't know something, its easy enough to learn. Read up on how difficulty works. This site is very helpful in understanding the relationship to network hash rate and difficulty (as well as predicting the level and time of the next difficulty adjustment): http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

opentoe

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Personal text my ass....

Quote from: eleuthria on November 10, 2013, 02:57:30 AM

Quote from: RoadTrain on November 10, 2013, 02:53:44 AM

It's possible that the network has bad luck as a whole.
Luck has been horrible for BTCGuild a couple days ago, and now it's bad for Eligius, while BTCGuild seems to catch up a bit.
The short term luck can affect your earnings significantly, unless you mine on PPS.

This!

BTC Guild luck has been positive by a decent margin the last day. Just like it was negative by a big margin the day before. This was explained to you in your OTHER thread, and the main BTC Guild thread already. Your earnings have been dropping every difficulty change by a large margin for the last month. You mention 0.5 BTC/day. Right now your hash rate (~250 GH/s) will only make 0.24-0.25/day at the network difficulty. This will be affected by luck on any pool, but your expected return is not 0.5, it is 0.25.

I'm not sure how you didn't notice difficulty increases over the last month. However, in the time frame you mentioned, BTC Guild has paid better than you could've expected (luck has been > what you'd make on a 0% PPS pool for the last 6 weeks).

You had one day of bad luck and apparently lost your mind, making two threads (even after the luck recovered) and also posting about it on the main thread.

EDIT: Just looked back and you did not start the other thread, you just posted in it. Still, this exact thing has been explained in two separate threads that you've participated in already.

Sorry, I can't help it if this forum is the most unregulated forum around and holding onto almost $2million USD in bitcoin.

opentoe

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Personal text my ass....

Quote from: os2sam on November 10, 2013, 04:18:49 PM

Quote from: DrHaribo on November 10, 2013, 03:38:35 PM

Guys we were all newbies at some point, nothing wrong with that

opentoe is no newbie. Has been around quite a while now.

I'm a complete Newbie to mining. Take it from the horse's mouth, trust me.

fizzmine

newbie

Activity: 38

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Quote from: os2sam on November 10, 2013, 04:18:49 PM

opentoe is no newbie. Has been around quite a while now.

Quote from: opentoe on November 10, 2013, 02:23:18 AM

We were all confused on why this happened since we all thought it was a universal thing that if bitcoin price rose up you would make more. A lot of people will drop the "difficulty" word out, but that only happened once during all this and it was only %2, not like %5 or more.

Does not compute...

os2sam

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Think for yourself

Quote from: DrHaribo on November 10, 2013, 03:38:35 PM

Guys we were all newbies at some point, nothing wrong with that

opentoe is no newbie. Has been around quite a while now.

zvs

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https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com

Quote from: DrHaribo on November 10, 2013, 03:38:35 PM

Guys we were all newbies at some point, nothing wrong with that.

I think the Bitcoin stack exchange is a great resource for people getting into Bitcoin. I posted a new question there so there will be an easily available URL to point people to regarding the "difficulty vs income" issue: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/16526/how-does-a-difficulty-increase-affect-a-miners-income

well, I put some research into it before I invested in those first half a dozen 5830's

already knew what difficulty was and that it was ramping up quickly (but that was also when price went from like $3 to $35)

and also knew to switch to namecoins when they first started too!

plus, it's $1000 or so vs $6000?

a poor sap like myself that considers $6,000 a good chunk of money would make sure to research such things first

DrHaribo

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Guys we were all newbies at some point, nothing wrong with that.

I think the Bitcoin stack exchange is a great resource for people getting into Bitcoin. I posted a new question there so there will be an easily available URL to point people to regarding the "difficulty vs income" issue: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/16526/how-does-a-difficulty-increase-affect-a-miners-income

werauchimmer

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Money to buy a Saturn and not taking the time to research the basic concepts. Why not invest in magic beans, next time? Hey, come to think of it: I do have some left over, that can be yours for a very reasonable price! Just contact me via PN!

(Jokes aside: Read what DrHaribo said! No better way to put it.)

Roll Eyes

HellDiverUK

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Quote from: r3animation on November 10, 2013, 02:57:56 AM

I think OP doesn't have a clue.

EFA.

zvs

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https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com

Good example of why ASICs are selling for 2-3x the price they should Lips sealed

DrHaribo

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Needs more jiggawatts

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 10, 2013, 02:28:44 AM

Difficulty has almost tripled in the last month (as in +200%) from ~155 million to 550 million. Everything else being the same you would be making 72% less. If you started a little earlier and the initial difficulty was ~100 million you will be making 82% less.

This is very important to understand when you are mining. "Difficulty" is not just a word without meaning that people drop.

I have some miners who don't believe the difficulty is real, and they claim I am stealing their money. They claim they should always get the same pay for the same hashrate. I have others who believe I am the one controlling the difficulty and that I'm cranking it up just to make their lives miserable.

The difficulty is very real and it is an automatic mechanism in Bitcoin that pool operators do not control. You need to understand difficulty if you are mining.

Measuring the luck of 4 different pools is useless. Thinking that the luck yesterday will affect the luck today is called gambler's fallacy. You can read about it on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Measuring the income from different pools as you move between them while the difficulty is changing... is worse than useless. The difficulty going up 50% will have an effect on your mining income - there's nothing any pool can do to eliminate that effect. Going back to the previous pool you will find that earnings have dropped there too.

Topic: Are miner pool thieving away? (Read 4197 times)