Are Nassim Taleb's ideas useful in gambling? - page 2.

Wexnident

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on April 26, 2024, 10:59:37 AM

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Completely agree with 1, randomness can produce a pattern but that doesn't mean it follows that pattern. The fact that it can produce a pattern and yet also go completely sideways after that pretty much reveals that it is indeed random, instead of a predestined pattern.

As for 2, I'd say it's pretty similar to the bias (if it means what I think it means) I've said in my past comments, survivorship bias to be exact. People often only consider things that have happened when explaining, often forgetting about prior instances that ran contrary to what they've experienced at that moment. The view they see things get pretty narrow, not that I blame them, gambling can be pretty emotional at times.

As for 3, idk, I just spend everything I have in my bankroll. If we were talking about the entirety of our funds, where 10% here can be said to be the gambling asset part, then yea I guess it works as well.

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I think the idea and philosophy that is useful in gambling is the Fooled by Randomness. It emphasizes how humans tend to perceive patterns where there are none, often attributing success to skill rather than luck. This concept is highly relevant in gambling, where outcomes are largely influenced by chance. Recognizing the role of randomness can help gamblers avoid overconfidence in their abilities and make more rational decisions, avoid chasing losses based on illusions of control. This understanding can help gamblers avoid the gambler’s fallacy, where one might believe that past outcomes influence future ones in games of pure chance.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on April 26, 2024, 10:59:37 AM

1. Ideas from the book “Fooled by Randomness.” There are many ideas that boil down to the fact that we often mistake randomness for a pattern.

I was not aware of Taleb until you posted all his books which to me is a must-read considering that one of his books Fooled by Randomness was picked by Fortune as one of the 75 Smartest Books Of All Time

one of the ideas discussed in this book is this

Quote

Survivorship bias. We see the winners and try to learn from them, while forgetting the huge number of losers.

This one applies to gambling, we look, celebrate, and boast about our winnings forgetting our huge losses, when in fact if you calculate the winning is not even a fraction of the losses.
Gamblers emphasize winnings and easily forget their losses.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on April 26, 2024, 10:59:37 AM

I have long wanted to discuss the following topic with users and participants in gambling discussions. Do you think Nassim Teleb's philosophy can be of any use in gambling? His various ideas and theories? Let me just list some of his ideas and you can comment on how, if any, benefits can be gained from this:
1. Ideas from the book “Fooled by Randomness.” There are many ideas that boil down to the fact that we often mistake randomness for a pattern.
2. Ideas from the book “Black Swan”. Strategies based on anticipation of the Black Swan.
3. Ideas from the book “Antifragile.” By the way, the concept of “barbell” is also from this book. Keep 90% of the bank in conservative assets and 10% in high-risk assets.
4. Ideas from the book “Skin in the Game”.
If you think any of these ideas can be applied to gambling, explain why you think so and how specifically it can be applied. If you believe that Nassim Taleb's ideas only apply to options trading and not to gambling, tell us more about your position.

I never had read this far to know about these theories thus I can actually relate with the one bold above, #3. When as a gambler or trader, the 90 percent of our total income or assets should be safe and secure than using that amount we can't be bear the lost to invest or gamble. That is to say of every total income that is coming maybe it may not be all but at least should be able to spare out 10 percent for gambling than put 90 percent into trading, gambling or online investment it could be more safer with bank than any other platform I think.
Any other person can correct me if I am wrong.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on April 26, 2024, 10:59:37 AM

1. Ideas from the book “Fooled by Randomness.” There are many ideas that boil down to the fact that we often mistake randomness for a pattern.

I can apply this one to gambling. I see it as gamblers should know that winning is random in gambling and not a pattern. Some gamblers may think they can use a strategy or some strategies to win the casino or the bookie but at the end they will be the one that is losing. We should not consider something random can be won with some kind of strategies. We should gamble responsibly and with the amount of money that we can afford to lose.

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The way I understand the barbell concept from the book antifragile is that the 10% high-risk assets is money that one can afford to lose and therefore after they have safely kept 90% of their other income in the bank or in any other investment, the rest is for allocated to their gambling. I think that the 10% is too high though. It should be within 5 - 8% of one's income. And the gambler should take care not to exceed this percentage allocation.

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I know some of his words, but number 1 certainly resonates with me on a personal level.

I often get fooled by certain events that happened in succession with the same outcome thinking that all of it was forming a pattern of some sort. This is what I thought of in dice games but little did I know that these are nothing but random events forming similar outcomes. I thought for a second that I could make some money off it, and when it happened for 3 times, I was certain that the next roll would be in my favor (high). I went all in and bam, I just lost all my bankroll because it rolled low.

I'm pretty sure most of us here were deceived by randomness thinking it was a pattern forming before our eyes. Until now, I'm still making those assumptions, though I am very careful in my next steps because it could be something that I might regret again just like the last time I bet on it thinking it would be in my favor.

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Quote from: Sim_card on April 26, 2024, 11:56:48 AM

Quote from: bettercrypto on April 26, 2024, 11:46:34 AM

I'm only familiar with "fooled by randomness," which refers to gamblers who often chase their losses, which only increase their losses in the end because they think they can recover what
they lost in gambling. This is my only understanding of this book.

And it's also focused most of the time on a gambler losing, and besides that, it's not focused on how a gambler can win but rather more on risk management, as I understand it.
In short, it doesn't give strategy or a trick of winning in gambling to the gamblers most often.

Of course, there is no book that will tell you any gamble strategy on making profit, because it is not possible to make profit in gamble, but only luck can give your profit. This is why you can only be taught on how to limit your losses, which I think is the best when gambling. This was why Nassim in "fooled by randomness" talks more about risk management in gambling. Whoever cannot control and limit his losses will continue chasing his loss, and losing more.

There's no way a gambler will have full control of the gambling outcome. However there are strategies which could at least increase your chances of winning; card counting and card predictjon on card games and making your own analysis with a fighter or sports team. These things won't make winning certain but at least you'd have a better result. The discussion questions whether Nasim's idea is useful in gambling. With that, then I'd say yes. Most of his contents are about risk management which is in the first place beneficial to a gambler especially ones who eaily gets frustrated and greedy. One way to come up with profit is to lessen your loss. Maybe it just depends on how a gambler would handle things on his own. Aiming to win is a normal thing but having that needed discipline is on another level in this industry.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on April 26, 2024, 10:59:37 AM

I have long wanted to discuss the following topic with users and participants in gambling discussions. Do you think Nassim Teleb's philosophy can be of any use in gambling? His various ideas and theories? Let me just list some of his ideas and you can comment on how, if any, benefits can be gained from this:
1. Ideas from the book “Fooled by Randomness.” There are many ideas that boil down to the fact that we often mistake randomness for a pattern.
2. Ideas from the book “Black Swan”. Strategies based on anticipation of the Black Swan.
3. Ideas from the book “Antifragile.” By the way, the concept of “barbell” is also from this book. Keep 90% of the bank in conservative assets and 10% in high-risk assets.
4. Ideas from the book “Skin in the Game”.
If you think any of these ideas can be applied to gambling, explain why you think so and how specifically it can be applied. If you believe that Nassim Taleb's ideas only apply to options trading and not to gambling, tell us more about your position.

We can apply such ideas in gambling, there is nothing bad in doing that, we should only be focused on knowing the rightful application of these to which kind or category of bets we are playing that may be found suitable for the use of this same philosophy in gambling, it may work for us and may not as well, but at least everything begins with a test in other for us to see how effective it could, just as many of us do make us of different gambling strategies in playing our bets.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on April 26, 2024, 10:59:37 AM

I have long wanted to discuss the following topic with users and participants in gambling discussions. Do you think Nassim Teleb's philosophy can be of any use in gambling? His various ideas and theories? Let me just list some of his ideas and you can comment on how, if any, benefits can be gained from this:
1. Ideas from the book “Fooled by Randomness.” There are many ideas that boil down to the fact that we often mistake randomness for a pattern.

This can be used to in gambling. Let me explain.

In a hypothetical situation where I am experiencing 3 winning streaks in the game of slot, instead of me to think about it as just a random occurrence, I may then make the mistake of seeing a pattern that I took that made me win. I may attribute it to the time of the day I played the slot and experienced a winnings in a role, I may attribute to the posture I took while playing the game or some other assumptions that I managed to conjure up in my head. While in reality, there is no pattern. My winning streaks were all just random. And in gambling, if I do not quickly correct my assumptions, what happens next is to chase the loss if I experience it on fourth game in after the winning streaks because I believe that I broke the pattern and have to get it back. Mistaking randomness for a pattern leads to making poor decisions and eventually loss.

Sim_card

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Quote from: bettercrypto on April 26, 2024, 11:46:34 AM

I'm only familiar with "fooled by randomness," which refers to gamblers who often chase their losses, which only increase their losses in the end because they think they can recover what
they lost in gambling. This is my only understanding of this book.

And it's also focused most of the time on a gambler losing, and besides that, it's not focused on how a gambler can win but rather more on risk management, as I understand it.
In short, it doesn't give strategy or a trick of winning in gambling to the gamblers most often.

Of course, there is no book that will tell you any gamble strategy on making profit, because it is not possible to make profit in gamble, but only luck can give your profit. This is why you can only be taught on how to limit your losses, which I think is the best when gambling. This was why Nassim in "fooled by randomness" talks more about risk management in gambling. Whoever cannot control and limit his losses will continue chasing his loss, and losing more.

aioc

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Quote from: AbuBhakar on April 26, 2024, 11:06:09 AM

@OP, maybe add the background of the subject involved since not everyone knew his credentials.

Here is an additional information about the guy

https://thedecisionlab.com/thinkers/philosophy/nassim-taleb

he has his website for you to get to know about his works and philosophy
https://nassimtaleb.org/

For a serious gambler, these ideas are worth exploring, but the majority of gamblers learn from their experience and we base our knowledge on what comes to and what the gambling community discusses but never have I imagined applying ideas coming from philosophers, although its worth a try, I don't know if there is a discussion that explores gambling using ideas and experiment coming from philosophers.

bettercrypto

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I'm only familiar with "fooled by randomness," which refers to gamblers who often chase their losses, which only increase their losses in the end because they think they can recover what
they lost in gambling. This is my only understanding of this book.

And it's also focused most of the time on a gambler losing, and besides that, it's not focused on how a gambler can win but rather more on risk management, as I understand it.
In short, it doesn't give strategy or a trick of winning in gambling to the gamblers most often.

cabron

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Skin in the game I think should apply to all industries not just in gambling. If he meant casino owners stand their ground and take responsibility I think we all get reliability and fairness. If the skin in the game means not just gamblers have to submit KYC but casino owners also have to publish their names, I guess it's fair.
I do not know Nassim but the idea has been around for a long time. It's been discussed many times in classrooms. Where the industry provider has to be responsible for they are risking reputation.

As for randomness, gamblers are already aware they could lose in playing casino games.

AbuBhakar

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@OP, maybe add the background of the subject involved since not everyone knew his credentials. Just a simple google search, I found that he is mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty as per the wikipedia details to this person.

I think with this rich background makes his words very credible especially his opinion about randomness. Many people always find a pattern on a pure random games which is an insane thing to do. This is a very topic OP all his words make sense when it comes to application in gambling.

I will try to scan the books that you mention. Sounds cool tho.

Julien_Olynpic

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I have long wanted to discuss the following topic with users and participants in gambling discussions. Do you think Nassim Teleb's philosophy can be of any use in gambling? His various ideas and theories? Let me just list some of his ideas and you can comment on how, if any, benefits can be gained from this:
1. Ideas from the book “Fooled by Randomness.” There are many ideas that boil down to the fact that we often mistake randomness for a pattern.
2. Ideas from the book “Black Swan”. Strategies based on anticipation of the Black Swan.
3. Ideas from the book “Antifragile.” By the way, the concept of “barbell” is also from this book. Keep 90% of the bank in conservative assets and 10% in high-risk assets.
4. Ideas from the book “Skin in the Game”.
If you think any of these ideas can be applied to gambling, explain why you think so and how specifically it can be applied. If you believe that Nassim Taleb's ideas only apply to options trading and not to gambling, tell us more about your position.

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