Topic: Are newcommers to bitcoin laggards or what? - page 3. (Read 4977 times)

It'll eventually be fed back to Average Joe in a more palatable form. Right now he would choke to death on it.

How about if average Joe will never use Bitcoin and it stays just for tech people?

Definitively early adopters, there is long way before average Joe will use Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now mostly for tech people willing going through the hassle of buying Bitcoin.

agreed. lets say in 100 years time, historians look back and see that only 500million(not 7bill) people held atleast a satoshi in their life

well in 2014 that equates to an at most 0.24% saturation level, not even close to the 2% of innovation on that scale sed in previous posts

Hope we are the early adopters and price go a lot higher.

It entirely depends on the adoption level at saturation.  Excluding the possibility that bitcoin "dies" any time soon, here's my assessment:

"Bitcoin as a store of value" will eventually appeal to some of the precious metals crowd, to some of the crowd that has tens of trillions of dollars squirrelled away in off-shore tax havens, to savers in countries with unstable local currencies, and to individuals subject to sanctions and confiscations.  INNOVATOR STAGE.

"Bitcoin as a medium of exchange" could potentially appeal to a much broader population group--secure/pseudonymous online transactions, frictionless international transfers, digital payments outside the eye of big gov, person-to-person transfers in meat-space without the need to "make change," and all sorts of crazy new possibilities like self-driving taxicabs that can pay for their own servicing, etc.  PRE-INNOVATOR STAGE

"Bitcoin as a unit of account" recognized across the world as a dominant global currency could potentially have a user-base close to the population of Earth.  VERY PRE-INNOVATOR STAGE as demonstrated by Beliathon:

We are definitely the 13.5%, the early adopters. And those who are relying on Shitcoins, BAD news for them. The closest LiteCoin does not even have >15% of market share. It is like Google and others in search market.

we are in the innovator/early adoption phase.

put it this way as an example.

Iphone

1) there is alot of press about the next iphone coming out. everyone is hearing about it and forming opinions about it. yet because its still in prototype phase, no one actually has one. so although everyone knows about iphone does not make them adopters

2) next when iphone is first released theres normally high demand... but not because everyone will have it tomorrow, but because apple can only ship 10-100 units per retail store in their first batch. meaning a city of 100k-20million people, the supply is only a couple percent the first week. so the guys that have iphones the first week are early adopters.

3) early majority takes upto 6 months before there is a shift from minority to majority, in some cases over a year. due to supply being low and costs being high.

4) you can always spot the late adopters as they are the ones that wait for the price to drop, and the reason the price drops is because apple see's the uptake of majority slowdown.

5) the laggers are those that buy second hand iphones or stick with the last gen version far after the next gen is popular.

now to bitcoin
1)alot of press, everyone is hearing about it and forming opinions about it, yet the majority of bitcoins are not in average joes hands. they are still hoarded in businesses and services hands (innovators)

2) bitcoin is still not straight forward for averag joe to obtain at a retail store, through a bank, or from a friend. usually they have to search online for a stranger they have never met(localbitcoins.com) or register with a service they have never used before. this means average joe does not have access to bitcoins freely. (less then 0.017% of the worlds population own atleast 1+ satoshi)

i wont go through the rest as its obvious that we are between innovation and early adoptors. alot more needs to be done to spread the supply of bitcoins to the general public and making it easy for everyone to get them at ATM's, 7-11's or from someone within their circle of friends

again 0.017% of the world is not anywhere near becoming the 'majority' or laggers curve

I know Bitcoin won't die tomorrow, that's why I inserted the NOT!

I'm HODLIN' man.  This tech is still in the early stages.

Bitcoin wont die tommorrow due to the fact, Gov has some,  To many companies now involved and other supportive factors. 

you will see soon the train systems are going to use bitcoin, buses, taxis.

I should of added the word yet, don't be depressed IMO the next run will happen in 2 days and be so fast you'll have to panic buy if you weren't already in.

Late laggards, Bitcoin will die tomorrow.  NOT!

Just read the theory and I'm sorry to have to tell you, but it is frankly shit. Reading that makes me think "communication studies" has got to be one of the softest fucking sciences ever devised. Maybe it's an art?

I suppose real, respectable "communication studies" professors call themselves professors of linguistics. Your science-fu is weak.

The thing you need to understand about modern academia is that, much like the world of high-art, it's a total fucking circle-jerk. Many (not all!) of these inept fuckwits that pass themselves off as professors contribute little or nothing of real value to society, while simultaneously holding themselves in high regard. It's counter-intuitive, I know. How can such an esteemed profession in reality be full of such massive suckitude, so much self-indulgent, pseduo-intellectual horseshit? The answer, in one word, is profit.

Sorry, I'm going off on a tangent.

To answer your question, today less than one half of one percent of the population of Earth uses Bitcoin, therefore...

Id say late adoption as well, and it will probably be more late adoption thats to the bad press and Mtgox for damaging bitcoin more, I say it it wasnt for gox prices would have been way higher at this time, Im sure a few adopters pulled out since many of them had lost lots of money in gox

I think people are mixing up 'oh yeah I've heard of the Bitcoin.com' and actually owning any. The gulf is enormous.

I'd say the average person who follows that path -

Hears of it.

Looks a bit further into it.

Understands it.

Sets up a wallet.

Sets up an account at an exchange.

Actually buys some.

There's often a gap of several months between each step judging by people I've talked to about it.

Bitcoin may end up a global asset class. If that is the case then we are still in the innovators stage.

Folks on here have a giant blind spot about where it stands in the real world. It's still a dot on the landscape.

I'd also say Late Adoption.


Why? That graph doesn't mean that much in the grand scheme of things. You could still potentially be an early adopter and/or make a lot of money from Bitcoin.

Simply depends how far Bitcoin goes. How far do *you* think it will go?

IMO, if it reaches its full potential, then we are just passing from the innovator to the early adopter phase.

When kids in schools are trading BTC on their phones I'll say we are entering the early majority stage. When it's an option at every retail outlet, late majority will be entered.

We are so so much early days here. You better believe this.

The only concern is whether a "better" crypto could take over, but I don't think that's likely.

That is completely depressing for a guy like me

I 100% disagree, out of all the people I know most won't touch crypto,  IMO late adoption.

Definitely not in the early adopter phase for bitcoin, perhaps for some of the new cryptos. I'd say we're at the early majority stage.