Topic: are people not reading the same charts i do? (Read 2394 times)

Same. I'm tempted to say bitcoin is too big and there's too much money invested in it to go down to below $100 but I suppose anything is possible. It wouldn't make sense for people to sell at that price though and miners would likely just keep their coins if that happened.

Speculation will drive us even higher. People aren't satisfied with the prices we have these days. It's only natural to assume that the price will be pushed higher and higher by speculation. We don't need 'Willy' or 'Marcus' in order to attain a new ATH!

so,
just enjoy the moment?

everything must die, but just that, everyone has a different ending time.

For me the real thing fuelling bitcoins rise and fall in last year was the same old dependable normal human emotions of fear and greed. Wally help facilitate the last bubble in similar way as quanitative easing has been facilitating the stock markets right now. In case of the stock market fear will soon overtake greed as it crashes, the S&P 500 won't rise forever and will have a fall. In case of bitcoin fear has ruled for past year but greed will start taking more prominence and I think we are already starting to see that. Also in case of bitcoin, for a global form of money with lots of publicity and lots of scarcity, there is still a long way up to go and there is still room for huge bubble to dwarf the ones that came before.

No, I'm saying the OP is bearish based on his reading of a chart, and that fundamentals are king, especially when you are watching history unfold.

So you are basically saying that if bitcoin price was in the past around $1000 Bitcoin must rise to the point of $1000 because it is "historically confirmed"?
I know that there is saying "history has turned full circle". But I am sure that there must be more factors in motion beside faith to achieve that.

Charts are only a tool, not to be taken too seriously when fundamentals are historically strong.

Interesting observation, especially the sentence I bolded. If you browse the speculation section on this forum, you'll spot plenty of topics title: crash now, $300 today, etc., showing that this lack of ability to think long-term is also present among the users of this forum (btw., I am curious if the second part of that sentence, not bolded is also true). Meaning that indeed we are observing trend reversal and that is when the smart money gets in. This events are usually only visible on the charts after the bubble burst, sucking on its way the mass public.

I don't believe in the wally bot theory that emanated on Mt Gox. The rally was real and so is the crash. People got scared to miss the boat, and they all bought at once. Now the same people is panic selling. Those are clueless people that cant think long term and dont even understand Bitcoin, they just where there for the speculative part. What we are seeing is just a redistribution of Bitcoin. Dumb holders are selling to get out, smart holders are selling to buy back more at a cheaper price or are holding in terms they don't want to risk getting left behind.

I am one of those posters who trully believe bitcoin wont go under 100$ ever again. The reasons for that are many, from adoption, infrastructure, some regulations, acceptance,
blockchain tech abilities, some banks adoption,etf, developing bitcoin apps and so on..

When internet came to market, noone gave it a second look, but now u have it in every household,same will happen with bitcoin in time, the fact is that it is constantly growing, and gaining more
followers, and all the additional tech thats being built on top of it, from all that if only one gets through, it will be enough for bitcoin to move to real worldwide trending.

I dont care THAT much about the price, altho i believe it will be great in far future, but whats much more interesting to me is whats being built apart from initial coins.

cheers

Think that depending on where you zoom it, just like you feel $1200 was a con, others thought $266 was a con, and $32, and...

...and that's the discrepancy. You're not thinking of bitcoin as money. That's fine - this issue tends to split the greater blockchain/crypto ecosystem. Some people see that bitcoin has a set of inherent properties which give it potential to be the best *money* humanity has ever had. And other people are more narrowly stuck in the viewpoint of the status-quo, and fail to appreciate that money evolves over time and has taken many forms which generally all satisfy properties in which bitcoin excels... Missing that, those people usually see bitcoin as overpriced because they don't understand where the demand comes from.

But taking the money view, it's not that hard to look at markets which bitcoin can eat into (remittances, international B2B transfers, internet sales, store-of-value uses (speculative for a while, yes)). When you do the math, you see that if bitcoin's properties as ideal-money-for-our-electronic-times are enough that it grabs even just some of these use-cases even a little bit, the total purchasing power of the currency base *must* rise in order to support those uses.

Of course there are lots of "ifs" in these lines of thought, but it boils down to a extremely +EV asymmetrical bet. For those with high risk tolerance and a proper approach to portfolio management, it's pretty darn attractive at current prices.

Well, we can ride horizontal trend for some time nothing bad about it. Especially after one year+ correction of the last bubble. Trend reversal usually take some time and that is where we most probably now sit.
As for the reasons, I agree to some extent on the point that we may need more (some?) fundamental reasons to fuel the next rise (if it is bubble-like, remains to be seen).

hi
I see the organic level as something lower at least at the moment. ie next 5 years
my logic is
1. if you believe in bitcoin you are really believing in the use of the blockchain. I think it is a wonderful thing. It can handle a huge range of "services' eg voting, info storage as well as currency transactions.
2. But bitcoin is "big" ie at the satoshi level it is 100 million times 21 million.  There is currently no big government (eg voting)  or financial institutions (eg to move huge bulk transactional sums) or even large scale first or third world person to person funds transfer ie the the use of bitcoins relative to its size is very very low . It is only when these these uses exist and are regular that there will be "competition' for a single satoshi either to buy one  from someone or to effectively rent for a short time while some event eg voting takes place.
3. therefore imho at present at $250 for a bitcoin we are pricing each satoshi (the high volume transactional unit) in bitcoin far too high.
 

assuming the whole 1200 move was purely due to willy...
assuming that nothing like that exists any more...
assuming that all the selloffs were 'natural' or if they were staged, that the stagers have had their fill...

Then I think we've found bottom and are back in 'organic'. I haven't seen this kind of market action since 'pre willy' days.

What I mean by that is the up a bit, down a bit, triangles, breakouts, headfakes, momentum, swings etc that your typical speculative market makes (with a gentle upward bias of course )

Perhaps thats just confirmation bias though *shrugs*. I'ts only been a few weeks so the sample size isn't huge, but that's my counter opinion fwiw.

matthecat  - i agree with you - it will fall to some organic point with some upswings along the way.
raystonn - the nice thing about a linear chart is just that it really does tell you about actual loss ie most people who have in the history of bitcoin bought bitcoin for more than US$250 and sold them since have probably taken a hit. some are still to sell but if they are forced to (eg to repay any loans used to speculate with) they will also take a hit but later.

that to me explains why the linear charts show bitcoin went below $500 (aug 2014) and its never returned, went below $400 (nov 2014) and its never returned, went below $300 (jan 2015) and has never returned. it might take even 12 months (though the previous figures say less) for it to go below $200 and never return.

I have read some posters say it will never go below a figure like $100 as there are thousands of buyers waiting in the wings to swoop in and hold the price up as that would be incredible "value'. I am not so sure these people really exist yet. If you are a true bitcoin fan ie see it having some longer term value that is several times the current price then $250 is "cheap' enough now yet the price is steadily declining not going back up. if they are not rushing in at $250 they will not rush in at $100. sure they will get 2.5 times more bitcoins then but they still need to believe it will go up substantially from $100 or there is no gain.

Gox was THEE BITCOIN EXCHANGE for almost the whole of Bitcoin's existence up until after the April 2013 bubble when Gox suspended USD withdrawals. Presumably Markus and Willy were trading during all the previous bubbles and crashes which means it is fair to say that the artificial and fraudulent buying power that they injected into the market has played a huge roll in pumping Bitcoin right through it's short history. Since the house cards that was Gox came crashing down, Bitcoin has went only one way and in ther absence of the artificially induced support provided by Gox, has yet to find it's rightful market velocity.

The OP will get flamed by the fucking morons on this site but I believe in his hypothesis and that Bitcoin will go much lower in the fullness of time until it finally finds it's own organic level.

With that said, I currently have modest long Bitcoin position because in the near term, the market indicates to me that Bitcoin is going to grind up for a good bit as the buying power subtley outweighs the selling power for a bit and shorts start exiting their positions.

I think the price would have dropped much quicker now if the rise was down to a gox, the fact is we went from $10 to $1000 in a short space of time we were due this bear market. 

i think that those are all just speculation, no one can really know where BTC is aiming, only time will tell, personally i don't think it will go below 100, better chance that it will go to 300-400

and surely by the time two years are passed, with the block halving incoming, the price must rise, or bitcoin will simply die