Topic: Are people really that ignorant? - page 2. (Read 526 times)
I agree that buying GPU right now is a bad idea. It's way overpriced from MSRP, from 3x to more than 6x in certain market. I'd rather wait and see how the crypto market goes and probably switch to staking or something similar if I can't make enough profit with mining. That being said, there is a possibility of low-mid cap coins price go up, so the future is not that bleak. At least for now.
People who only started mining with ETH, which I would venture are the majority of current GPU miners, don't know how good they currently have it due to being able to mine ETH, the most widely adopted and developed Cryptocurrency which has evolved in to multiple market segments with NFT's, DeFi, etc fueling the enormous demand for ETH, which under the current PoW model greatly benefits miners by padding the block rewards they receive.
I started mining pre-ETH back in 2014 which was after the ASIC takeover of SHA-256. Back then Scrypt and X11 type coins were the vast majority of GPU minable coins. The entire market cap for Altcoins was ~500M instead of the almost 1T it currently is. If you able to make over $1 per card after power that was great. Speculative mining for yield on new shitcoins that were launched daily was the most profitable option. BTC market cap percentage of all Crypto was in the 80-90% range and alts, that were mostly only tradable in BTC, closely followed it's price moves. Once BTC dumped to $300 and the bear market that followed added with Scrypt and X11 ASIC's being released, it became completely unprofitable to GPU mine until ETH launched in 2015 and the GPU mining renaissance that followed supported by ETH's constant development and market adoption.
BBT has done and in-depth analysis of the current GPU POW mining options after ETH 2.0 merge. His conclusion is for all the current GPU minable coins, it would take a 10-20X price appreciation to even come close to the current ETH profitability once the hashrate moves over. Something that is very unlikely, especially if the market were to turn negative from it's current state.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKW3YMPTV5I
I started mining pre-ETH back in 2014 which was after the ASIC takeover of SHA-256. Back then Scrypt and X11 type coins were the vast majority of GPU minable coins. The entire market cap for Altcoins was ~500M instead of the almost 1T it currently is. If you able to make over $1 per card after power that was great. Speculative mining for yield on new shitcoins that were launched daily was the most profitable option. BTC market cap percentage of all Crypto was in the 80-90% range and alts, that were mostly only tradable in BTC, closely followed it's price moves. Once BTC dumped to $300 and the bear market that followed added with Scrypt and X11 ASIC's being released, it became completely unprofitable to GPU mine until ETH launched in 2015 and the GPU mining renaissance that followed supported by ETH's constant development and market adoption.
BBT has done and in-depth analysis of the current GPU POW mining options after ETH 2.0 merge. His conclusion is for all the current GPU minable coins, it would take a 10-20X price appreciation to even come close to the current ETH profitability once the hashrate moves over. Something that is very unlikely, especially if the market were to turn negative from it's current state.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKW3YMPTV5I
Yes scenario is like you said is correct. Many miners will stop because there will be no profit. if eth goes pos it will be worse time for miners i hope eth will continue pow as well with pos so there will be equilibrium for hashing power. people who buying cards now making mistake, people who bought in december did correct.we will see what happens.
it will be the end of gpu mining for most people.
since the first btc asics were released to the public, this was said... they should at least be right once.
I find it perplexing that so many (especially newbies) don't seem to be concerned about the pending Eth POS. I believe the following to be facts but if anyone can rationally argue any of these points, I would be very interested to hear it. It's quite possible I'm the stupid one but so far I haven't heard any reasonable rationale to counter the following logical chain.
1. Eth goes POS
2. Immediately, all the gpus currently mining Eth, switch to mining much smaller coins.
3. The enormous amount of hash power causes an enormous increase in difficulty for these smaller coins, resulting in:
4. Smaller coins mining profitability crashing through the floor, way below the electric cost for most miners.
At the moment, other coins are profitable. Not as profitable as Eth but nonetheless still can generate more revenue than the electricity costs. But consider a 100x increase in hash power that will result when erstwhile Eth miners switch over. 100 x hash power = 1/100 revenue per hash (This is a very rough approximation). Therefore if a card is currently earning $1 a day in revenue, it will drop to 1 cent a day. Obviously no profit at all here.
Of course very quickly people will start turning off their rigs when they see they can no longer make money. After a short period of time (weeks maybe), difficulty will drop and an equilibrium will be reached whereby the few miners with the lowest electric cost and the most efficient cards will be left mining with some degree of profitability. But the majority of current miners will be out of the game.
This is not my opinion, it is factual. Unless someone can fault my logic. (Please, please do!)
The Eth POS is not like a bear market. It's a game changer for gpu mining. There is no other POW coin that is anywhere near Eth's dominance. The best you can hope for is that EIP1559 continues to be delayed because when it happens, it will be the end of gpu mining for most people.
Probably the worst time ever to be buying overpriced cards and starting mining.
1. Eth goes POS
2. Immediately, all the gpus currently mining Eth, switch to mining much smaller coins.
3. The enormous amount of hash power causes an enormous increase in difficulty for these smaller coins, resulting in:
4. Smaller coins mining profitability crashing through the floor, way below the electric cost for most miners.
At the moment, other coins are profitable. Not as profitable as Eth but nonetheless still can generate more revenue than the electricity costs. But consider a 100x increase in hash power that will result when erstwhile Eth miners switch over. 100 x hash power = 1/100 revenue per hash (This is a very rough approximation). Therefore if a card is currently earning $1 a day in revenue, it will drop to 1 cent a day. Obviously no profit at all here.
Of course very quickly people will start turning off their rigs when they see they can no longer make money. After a short period of time (weeks maybe), difficulty will drop and an equilibrium will be reached whereby the few miners with the lowest electric cost and the most efficient cards will be left mining with some degree of profitability. But the majority of current miners will be out of the game.
This is not my opinion, it is factual. Unless someone can fault my logic. (Please, please do!)
The Eth POS is not like a bear market. It's a game changer for gpu mining. There is no other POW coin that is anywhere near Eth's dominance. The best you can hope for is that EIP1559 continues to be delayed because when it happens, it will be the end of gpu mining for most people.
Probably the worst time ever to be buying overpriced cards and starting mining.
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