Are spectacular returns over for bitcoin? - page 4.

Lucius

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Quote from: Poker Player on January 23, 2022, 06:27:05 AM

~snip~

Maybe some beginners like to live in delusion, but I guess most are clear that they can't expect Bitcoin to bring them x20 or x50 in the next 10 or even 20 years. What I don't like is that these facts will really help all those altcoins that promise spectacular profits, and from my personal experience, a lot of small investors are looking for their profit in altcoins. Personal freedom is a matter for each individual, who we are to tell people what to do with their money - but they need to know the risks, as well as that without the success of Bitcoin, the whole crypto market cannot function.

It is easy for me to say that this situation does not affect me because I have experienced much worse, but I can very easily put myself in the position of those who have invested in Bitcoin in the past 6 months, and now nothing is clear to them.

Confused looks and just one question heard everywhere "But sir, shouldn't Bitcoin be worth at least $100k, what about PlanB?"

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: Poker Player on January 23, 2022, 06:27:05 AM

Call me pessimistic if you want

Its not pessimistic mate. This is an optimistic scenario because it assumes further growth and development of bitcoin. We could expect spectacular returns only after a dump from current $35k back to 3k$. Only this will give us space for "spectacular returns". But if we take optimistic scenario and further growth and development of bitcoin I expect bitcoin to stabilize in about 5-10 years and outperform gold x2 in next 20 years. So if gold yell around 10% annulaly on average - "Between January 1971 and December 2019, gold had average annual returns of 10.61 percent," I expect bitcoin to do around 20% annually on average which gives us 2 mln $ price target after 20 years.

There is a very popular chart that also proves your point:

https://forum.orgones.co.uk/t/bitcoin-price-may-be-following-a-square-root-function-of-the-logarithmic-chart/4649

I think that everyone has seen it before. Shows that possible gains are slowing down. Chart shows possible x3 in 4 years on this chart from 100k to 300k. Instead of x20 from 2013 ATH to 2017 ATH (also 4 years)

_act_

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Quote from: Poker Player on January 23, 2022, 06:27:05 AM

Quote from: mk4 on January 23, 2022, 06:39:03 AM

If we check the demand, supply and the limited supply of bitcoin which is 21 million bitcoin, it is true that people that invested at early stage are the ones that have most gain. When bitcoin was at $1, only little amount of money was required to increase the price bitcoin to $2, the more bitcoin is known and people buying it, the price rose but the money to make its price to double are getting higher.

When bitcoin was at young age, only few people will be involved to multiply its price by 2 because only little marketcap is needed, comparing it with this time, more people are involved, the market can not be manipulated this time unlike before and more people are needed to make the price volatile only few needed in the past.

All I have been saying is that it is true that for the price of bitcoin, It can not increase as much as before, but this is helping to lessen volatile also. This is called maturation, bitcoin is getting matue. More rich people may later because of this invest in bitcoin.

But if bitcoin do not that increasing like before after many adoption, remember that it will help against the inflation that makes fiat value to be reducing, if paired with fiat, it will be the winner.

mk4

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Of course the returns are going to get lower and lower. I mean, at some point it will be totally be unrealistic to expect quick multipliers like what we've had.

But really, it really isn't totally a bad thing. Bitcoin had bigger multipliers in the past simply because it was far more risky back then; with far less products, far less actually-savvy investor holders, or just adoption in general. A lot of people think that lower price automatically means lower risk, but that's definitely not the case with bitcoin and some assets.

In summary: Bitcoin is highly likely to have less multipliers as mcap goes up, but with less risk. Pretty much like bitcoin moved from being a micro cap stock to a blue chip. Still one of the best r/r asset investments in my book.

Poker Player

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I think this will have to be considered. Especially if we don't break $70K in this cycle, which would be only 3.5x the ath of the previous cycle.

Call me pessimistic if you want, but being as we are, with institutional adoption, starting state adoption in some cases, Bitcoins leaving the exchanges for a long time, hashrate at maximums, everyone with bullish predictions for last year, even former Bitcoin haters reconverted, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

What is clear is that it is easier for something worth $0.01 to become worth $1 than for something worth $10K to become worth $1M.

Thus, maybe the most we can expect for future cycles is a tripling of the previous ath. Maybe quadruple in some given cycle. But not to multiply the previous ath by 20 or more.

On a personal level, nothing changes for me. I have been doing DCA for years with the S&P 500 and I've been through similar bumps, if the price goes down, you keep buying and forget about it, just like if it goes up a lot. So I will continue to do the same both with the S&P and Bitcoin.

What I do think needs to be considered, especially if the price does not recover this year, are more realistic return forecasts for the future.

Edit: update from June 19, 2022 after Bitcoin price broke down to $18K.

Topic: Are spectacular returns over for bitcoin? - page 4. (Read 611 times)