Topic: Are the Miners acting as the biggest whale! - page 2. (Read 343 times)

The amount miners are earning in terms of fiat is down, and the cost of electricity and other energy is up, so it's hardly surprising that they are selling more bitcoin than before to cover their expenses. That's just basic math.

Well, that's just nonsense. Zoom out on the chart. The "sharp drop" in hash rate is taking us back to levels we haven't seen since... *checks notes* last month! 180 EH/s to 80 EH/s when China banned mining was a "sharp drop". 220 EH/s to 213 EH/s is barely a fluctuation. At the last retarget the difficult only dropped by 2%.

A small number of miners with the highest electricity costs have stopped mining at the moment, or maybe moved to some other coin, but to suggest mining is "currently unprofitable" is just nonsense. Even if it were, and we did actually see a sharp drop in hash rate, then the lower difficulty which accompanied that would then make mining profitable again. It's a self correcting system.

This may impact for short terms but in the long terms the market stables and it moves on with its own terms.

Is there any sequence in the numbers?

2012 to 2014 the percentage gain is super high, 2014 to 2017 is not much higher compering to the first but close to 2017 to 2020. It's 300 to 350% gain. From 2020 to current rate it's around $21000. We have under $18k few days ago. Shall we consider it as already a bottom?

I understand it does not make sense though 😂

Mining may be the weakest link because of their constant need for liquidity, and therefore whales are better than miners because all they do is wait, enter and exit at the right time without risks.

The entirety of the remaining bitcoins will not cause a major problem, and the critical mass of bitcoins is not identifiable. If we suppose that we know the amount of ten million bitcoins, there are about 8 million unknown owners, and it cannot be certain that they are missing.

Huge investments were into mining to take revenue. This is considered as a big business. Whales don't try to dump the market. They look for regular revenue, and they always want the revenue to be stable unlike the market variations. So, mostly they intend to hold than selling when the market is down. As a union they can be considered as Whale holders.

There are multiple huge mining farms so no, they are most likely not acting in unison as ‘the biggest whale’. If they were all dumping coins at the same time in agreement to affect the price you could say it but no. Mining farms have to make money to stay solvent so they are just doing what they have to do to survive.

Miners have small miners and whale miners. Whale miners probably act like whales but not all whales have same strategy and same risk management. They will response differently in bear market when their risk management will be tested.

Miners so far look like selling all Bitcoin they received recently but they still have some sort of reserved earnings from the past. They can sell it if the bear market last longer and price falls deeper. Then we will witness miner capitulations with which you will see miners not only sell their reserved Bitcoin but also will sell their ASICS at very big discount price too. At that point, their priority is exit the mining industry as soon as possible.

what is more interesting (unlike the temporary day to day drama of small amounts)_
.. is the yields of coins that are still hoarded at acquisition costs below market rate.

EG early adopter coins. mined coins from early days or by the most efficient miners.

..
take these things into account.
imagine early adopters and efficient miners early and current, that have a cost/acquisition value of under $15k
once they sell. to people on the market at $17k+ this year. those coins are no longer valued at below $15k but at a minimum $17k+
meaning no one now holding those sold coins would sell below $15k nor $17k..

..but if they were not sold this month by the early adopters/efficient miners. then next month there would have still have been more coins worth under $15k
meaning more coins that could have depressed the market later.

the more that are sold now means more support for higher prices later.

its better to "find the new bottom" now, as it then supports the next level higher later on.

2012 bottom was $3
2014 bottom was $300
2017 bottom was $1200
2020 bottom was $5300

And this is incredible!
The coins sent to exchanges by miners reached a record high and the coin balance on exchanges is at all time lows for months now. You don't have to be a genius to notice that even when the inflows are rising the outflows are doing the same so there's a very high demand for bitcoin. Some people are buying it and moving offline, preparing to hold despite all that talk about recession and rate hikes all around the world.
Remember that when you get scared or have doubts about owning bitcoin.

Every investor who's saving up and has a portfolio should own at least 1% in bitcoin.

Without knowing a lot more detail about what was planned or many other things it's also all just guessing as to why.
Were they planning to sell 10000BTC for something anyway but because of the depressed market only sold 4000BTC just to cover some things?
We have what they say and what we speculate. But there are probably 1000s of factors going into those decisions.

-Dave
 

6.25 a block x 2016blocks a fortnight x 2= 25200btc a month
selling 4000 is not the entire production

4000 coins entering an exchange compared to the 3MILLION+ coins held on exchange utxo's(hot/cold wallets) is not a big deal.

yes selling 4000coin in a small 1second/5 minute trade window can impact the market price alot. but thats just temporary price drama.

once those coins are sold. the miners dont have the coins. new buyers do.
new buyers then hold coins at their purchase price and wont sell for less. which then helps support current prices from dropping by as much again next time.

According to CoinMetrics data: The miners hold 800,000 BTC (4.2% of the supply), making them one of the biggest whales in the market. Consequently, their every move has a strong impact on the market.



Data from Arcane shows that “public” Bitcoin miners sold 100% of their BTC production in May (Sold Out) compared to the usual 20-40% previously.
Although these public companies only account for 20% of the total hashrate of the bitcoin blockchain, their actions partly reflect the general situation of all other miners.





The number of bitcoins continuously being sent to the exchange, reaching a record high since January 2021.





BITCOIN HASH RIBBON, one of the signals to determine when to buy. SMA30 (green line) falling below SMA60 (Blue line) indicates that some miners have closed down and stopped mining.





The sharp drop in Hash Rate shows that bitcoin mining is currently unprofitable.





Bitfarms said it sold 3,000 Bitcoins, about 47% of the total bitcoin holdings of about 6,349 BTC, to liquidate loans previously used for mining investments.
source: https://decrypt.co/103539/public-bitcoin-miners-selling-btc-reserves-crypto-winter

while Marathon Digital announced they will not sell any bitcoin even though the market is going through bear season.
source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/09/marathon-digital-bitcoin-production-weaker-than-hoped-in-may

If the market situation does not get better, unprofitable mining will force miners to increase the percentage of bitcoins sold out, which will contribute to the bitcoin price continuing to fall.

We are at the end of June, and how do you predict the market will be affected if in the future bitcoin miners will sell the bitcoins they mined?? Please share your thoughts.