1. if 265 holds, that will be a solid confirmation and an early start of a rally to happen this spring.
2. if 265 breaks, that would also mean that both a multi-year exponential trend *and* the previous rally's ATH are broken, neither of which have happened before, especially at once - and if it does, I would not be surprised to see another 30+% retraction.
My bet, with about 90% confidence, is on the outcome #1, but I won't rule #2 out seeing how thin the market is. Still, my money is at the better probability, so I'm buying here.
But this, for a first time, actually is the defining moment in bitcoin's price history.
I personally think it is more likely we will see something closer to option 2. If you look at the volume on bitfinex you will see that it has spiked tremendously. This leads me to believe that they are having to sell large positions that were leveraged. This will potentially create a domino affect that more leveraged positions will be liquidated similar to what we saw a few months ago with several $50+ drops at once over several days 2. if 265 breaks, that would also mean that both a multi-year exponential trend *and* the previous rally's ATH are broken, neither of which have happened before, especially at once - and if it does, I would not be surprised to see another 30+% retraction.
My bet, with about 90% confidence, is on the outcome #1, but I won't rule #2 out seeing how thin the market is. Still, my money is at the better probability, so I'm buying here.
But this, for a first time, actually is the defining moment in bitcoin's price history.
