Topic: Are we headed for 250k btc in 12-18 months? - page 3. (Read 1178 times)

Who are blind will be judged by time, no hurry . As per how bitcoin is doing right now, I believe we never need to consider how world economy is doing and where is the current pandemic is heading. Because, bitcoin is a speculative market and it is highly insulated from world economic incidences hence if people find bitcoin will be beneficial for them both in long and short run then definitely they will get into it regardless of how their economy position is doing with respect to their country.

$250k may sound unrealistic in your eyes. But, it will happen in 18 months or in 36 months. I am not having any doubts on that. Due to some reason big value for bitcoin may get delayed but never will become impossible.

I'm seeing bitcoin might be heading toward $100k in next 12 months and after that anything will be happening must be considered as bubble and I'm not supporting that through my speculations.

Some analysts become very optimistic but somehow they are blind enough to see what is really happening today that could also a factor for an x growth in the future. I agree with $15k-$20k, it is fairly enough with the pandemic situation and truly achievable, but I'd never lost my hopes to see Bullrun run again. However, I was not very optimistic to think about a huge spike, $50k, $100k, and $250k, this will be just a dream at all.

That is a fair assessment, the issue with all these huge valuation is that some are anticipating a rally before settling back to $15k to $20k and with the present economic situation it is not a realistic possibility that we would see a huge rally like we used to see in the past two halving and it all depends upon how strong the economic sector could hold all the debts accumulated during this pandemic.

What I find so notable is that no one who says it's a fanciful notion that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 in the specified time range says much else other than "I think it is too high a price ... no one can predict the price of BTC."

Well, here are some more grounded reasons for why this is possible:

1. The recentralization of Bitcoin as per the original message in this post
2. The increase in value mining (aka yield farming) which will tie exponentially higher sums of BTC up (just look at the increase in market cap of WBTC lately) and the BTC re-buying effect that such assets, where the relative per unit value with strengthen enormously over a very short space of time
3. Let's consider 18m supply @ $250,000 per BTC for a minute in real terms - that is 4.5 Trillion market cap. The highest the crypto market ever got was about $800b - near enough $1T (remember that? and Vitalik was banging on about how we hadn't really earned a trillion of value, about which he was dead right.- that was in 2018.) Now, that is about 4%-5% of the official market cap for all fiat currency worldwide. For the unofficial market cap - derived from adding in off balance sheet holdings from firms like Google etc. - that is about 2.5% of the global sovereign currency value market cap (gross value is a better term).
4. We need to be able to assume that Bitcoin can easily buy over $250,000 of assets daily. Is this realistic. To do this equation let's go back to DeFi. Now, Let's consider on their own, SNX MKR and COMP. That's about $1.2 billion of value there that has materialized in the past year (roughly) or about 0.5% of the entire market. This value stores on top of it roughly the same amount over the long term, say another half percent. We would expect to see such assets increase by about approximately 100x in value if a $250k value was justified for BTC. Given these assets almost like-for-like mimic ETH in the early stages in terms of price performance, and given that, well, these assets STORE those assets inside them further compounding such gains (hence shortening the timeline of price ascension) the rationale seems perfectly logical here.

Just my two cents of course - and everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but the financial case (if not so much the technological case, although that one is not too bad either) for at least $250k BTC appears perfectly sound.

^ Not only for ordinary holders but also in celebrity, they predicted bitcoin will even hit $500k by next year. I am optimistic the price of bitcoin will raise up after halving but that was too much prediction that we did not really what will happen next. However, I have a strong feeling that bitcoin will raise up but the amount that will bitcoin headed is too much and unbelievable. Nevertheless, understanding the fact that bitcoin price is unpredictable but who really knows, it will pump or dump, no one really knows.

You would really be just stressing out yourself in believing into something that is nearly impossible to happen.$250k price is too far and impossible in a short time.

Its better to consider lower numbers or at least hoping for 15k price rather than minding yourself too much on when it would hit 6 digits prices.

We do even struggle on 5 digit price how much more on further numbers? Its just a stressful thing on expecting or hoping into things that might not happen

or shall we say that you would need to wait like forever.

People have too much anticipation towards what happens with bitcoin price in next year or so, I get that halving happened but I really do not think that we should be this much hyped about it. Sure get happy about it a bit because we had halving and that means half amount of bitcoin we used to which means there will definitely be some increasing and that is definitely something to take into consideration and I do believe that it will go up as well.

But the difference between me and OP for example is that I believe 15-20k is a realistic place that we can reach so that is what I am focusing on, 12-13 is even more realistic and I will sell mine when it reaches there, on the other hand OP considers 250k is possible and that is why he might get more upset even while people are earning.

If there was a method to know what the price would be beforehand everyone would have used it. However there are some methods to see what the price can't be. Just to give a surreal example to make my point, do you think bitcoin will be 1 trillion dollars per coin tomorrow? If anyone says yes to this, they are crazy and not kind of cute way, I mean like wear a crazy jacket and put them in hospital type of crazy.

Now, if you do not believe 1 trillion, but many believe it might be $10k in a month or so, that means there is somewhere a limit, and I believe $250k is above that limit. You do not have to care for it, you do not have to believe me, I do not have any proof to back it up at all, so you have all the right to ignore me, but I believe $250k is just too unrealistic for now and for another 2-3 years.

This Halving is not enough for us to receive this huge growth since the pandemic of 2019 will be in effect until 2021 meaning the tighten the investors will decide to put their money or remain neutral .

maybe things will be different if the next halving take effect mate,remember there will be another Halving after 4 years.

Yeah not my attitude to click links that easy since the whole thread is long enough to explain the body of the said link.

we are all free to argue and speculate, for now, believe it or not, that is our own decision. to be honest, I don't really trust prices above $ 100k. Well, even though many people say it has potential, and I also think so, however, I didn't really think about the very high prices before bitcoin reached the new ATH.

That is pure speculation, every traders or investor can also do like that. Imagine if we will believe on what he said, for sure we will incur huge losses because we rely our decision on other people. It is better to do technical analysis than to speculate on what will happen to the price. $250k per each bitcoin is really impossible in this current time. Why do I say so? Right now the price of the bitcoin is now having a hard time to surpass it's current resistance at $10,000. It is a simple logic so we should not believe even if the person who speculate is influential or popular.

Hmmm... I think that these should be some very large investors - at such a price, the capitalization of bitcoin will exceed a trillion. And the pressure on the price will be huge as many early investors decide to take profits.

Both of those moments were having its valid reasons behind it of why bitcoin price was dumped. It was related to the real world incidents and also the stock markets all around the world also did the same. The thing is people are having such big dreams regarding the price that can't be true, not even 2 years down the road and still they are predicting the price to be $250k. This should be a long term goal to look forward to, but in the short term we should be hoping for a price of like $20k to $30k at most as this is reliable and also be achievable.

Honestly I do not want to imagine what would have happened if there was no halving happened this year. At the same time, bitcoin got its own believers who keep on buying at every dips hence even there was no halving bitcoin might have survived like how it has done in last 2 to 3 months of times but I must say we all might have got more panic than how we reacted when bitcoin was dumped below $4k levels in the matter of 2 sessions.

When considering how FOMO will work in bitcoin space, I guess $250k will be possible in 18 months of time but for that we need new investors and world economy to be into normal. With pandemic is still persisting, I guess thinking about FOMO influenced bull run is not at all making any sense.

Do you really think it is? because as I notice the price is not much appealing compare to the past halving and even if it occur we are struggling to climb at $10,000 so imagine if no halving + pandemic provably we will suffer from a huge dump since many people will afraid with the crisis. We see the price slowly moving and maybe we will still experience this until the crisis occur.

Best if we just stick with the current situation since predicting to much might cause us harm if we keep waiting for huge pump.

I think it is not that bad to predict though.

The pandemic did not actually brought a huge imoact in the price of Bitcoin. The dump might be coincidental with the pandemic and the scammers dumping Bitcoin. I think we are doing well for a certain period in this pandemic since the price is moving well and more investors and traders are going in with it.

True that, the problem with some analysts is that, they get the ratio of growth from a certain timeframe and apply it to the recent price then do their prediction (mostly non-sense/ non-realistic).  They don't even check the capitalization needed to achieve such guesses and the current situation of the market sentiment and people's knowledge.  Besides with institution jumping in, the price will be greatly manipulated and controlled, check what happens when CME  comes in.  As much as I love to see BTC to spike that high, the reality that it won't weigh in.

I'll weigh with some boring stuff that does make such a silly high target possible and thats not just that Bitcoin appreciates and that consideration but also the decline in dollar value as a denominator currency.       Its also why 18 months is not likely a reasonable target timeframe, these kind of transitions in currency occur over more like a decade time frame.
    When CCCP the old USSR union broke up and so their old Rouble came under pressure from this new reduced and less dictatorial economy (then like now oil prices were quite low) the value did eventually crash into oblivion over 5 years later.   Right upto the end some believed it could be saved and there was a bailout provided to stop the decline.  So say you speculated like the old to new Rouble standard we saw a change of 10,000 to 1 and so all prices rise drastically within that time it'd still take 6 years or so to see that process to occur.  Today we think any idea of this is unrealistic so its not 18 its possibly upto 180 months.  

Being optimistic isnt bad but be sure to set it out on realistic level and wont go further in numbers which doesnt even able to fit out even in our dreams. $250k is really a far off price to be considered and
to think that we do have lots of speculations that floated when we are still heading in the halving event but look at on where we now? Price hadnt even able to break 10k barrier or 5 digit price this is why
its would be sensible for us to presume out that movement wont really be just similar compared into those previous years when the market is still bullish.So its better to stick out on realistic numbers and
speculations so that you wont frustrate up yourself if the market price will fuck up your anticipated price.

Reality check! That value is very far from where we are right now. People need to be realistic with the situation. Because some naive users will rely on someone else's prediction regarding their decision. I don't understand why people keep on giving unrealistic goals. This is not helping in any way.