Topic: Are we in another bubble? (Read 2917 times)
le epic fixed that for you le monkey face :DD
If you are a gambling man surfer dude, try to ride the 'wave' it could be extremely profitable, or you could lose your ass.
Speculators are going to try to manipulate every angle they can to profit off it. Don't get caught up in the feeding frenzy.
Speculators are going to try to manipulate every angle they can to profit off it. Don't get caught up in the feeding frenzy.
I fixed it for you & Got my board all waxed up.
That will flood the bitcoins. yes some will refute this but face it, if they are found in 2 minutes instead of 2 hours what is that called?
That, ... well that's called minor outlier. Because at 5X the normal rate, that means in under three days difficulty will readjust. So sure there might be a burst of a lot of new coins minted, it lasting just a few days isn't enough to impact the exchange rate.
Soon, because of the ease at which they are now found, the amount found per 'successful result' will halve AND the difficulty to find them will shoot through the roof.
And this is known in advance ... when (late November, 2012) and degree (50 BTC to 25 BTC). It possibly is already priced in.
Richy. Take a while to observe..
Soon asics, allegedly will be out that will increase mining capability by an order of magnitude or two.
That will flood the bitcoins. yes some will refute this but face it, if they are found in 2 minutes instead of 2 hours what is that called?
Soon, because of the ease at which they are now found, the amount found per 'successful result' will halve AND the difficulty to find them will shoot through the roof.
THe market will be wild for a bit but settle out.
If you are a gambling man, try to ride the 'wave' it could be extremely profitable, or you could lose your ass.
Speculators are going to try to manipulate every angle they can to profit off it. Don't get caught up in the feeding frenzy.
Aaron
Soon asics, allegedly will be out that will increase mining capability by an order of magnitude or two.
That will flood the bitcoins. yes some will refute this but face it, if they are found in 2 minutes instead of 2 hours what is that called?
Soon, because of the ease at which they are now found, the amount found per 'successful result' will halve AND the difficulty to find them will shoot through the roof.
THe market will be wild for a bit but settle out.
If you are a gambling man, try to ride the 'wave' it could be extremely profitable, or you could lose your ass.
Speculators are going to try to manipulate every angle they can to profit off it. Don't get caught up in the feeding frenzy.
Aaron
There are so many competing factors going into bitcoin at the moment that it's hard to see how things will go in the short to medium term. I do think that mining for (real) profit is unsustainable. I mine but I wanted a new video card anyway and Bitcoin just influenced my choice (or I'd probably have gone Nvidia). It's something of a goldrush going on right now, professional miners have got themselves into something of an arms race with each other, having to continually improve (at some cost) their mining equipment just to stay more-or less where they are.
Long term, I think Bitcoin is on its way up though. I'm planning on putting a bit of fiat into it but I think I'll wait a few days until things calm down.
Long term, I think Bitcoin is on its way up though. I'm planning on putting a bit of fiat into it but I think I'll wait a few days until things calm down.
until it crashes to 4 bucks a coin and then all you experienced 'professional' miners are left holding your tallywhackers, bitter at the folks who sold off early and got their money back.
Aaron
Aaron
So, will ASIC's affect peoples behavior when it comes to buying and selling bitcoins? I expect it will. I know it will for me.
Ok, in what way? More apt to hold or more apt to sell?
This will be my first venture into mining and I plan to sell everything I mine until my initial investment is paid off. More supply without shifts in demand will mean lower. I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking that way.
That's the perspective of the small-time miner, recoup costs quickly so he can grow his operation... those of us who are more established - will likely hoard more coin. I sell between 18% and 22% of my mined coins just to pay ongoing costs (inet+electric) another ~20% goes back into buying new hardware so my income doesn't decrease. That leaves about 60% that I'll hold.
Of course if I see massive price swings in btc/usd then I'm just as likely to pay my monthly costs with fiat and hoard even more coin --- with the intention to sell it slowly once the price calms down.
We are entering the bubble. It's gonna be fun 
So, will ASIC's affect peoples behavior when it comes to buying and selling bitcoins? I expect it will. I know it will for me.
Ok, in what way? More apt to hold or more apt to sell?
This will be my first venture into mining and I plan to sell everything I mine until my initial investment is paid off. More supply without shifts in demand will mean lower. I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking that way.
Once they halve, any gain made by the faster cards, I see pretty much going away due to the reduced value of coins .vs. electricity costs to actually mine them. This will probably have an overall affect of balancing them to about where we are now. ie I can mine twice as much, but am only getting half what I used to each time. If the new cards (which are only rumor and NOBODY has any REAL performance specs yet) don't perform like they are claimed to, well we won't see a big shift. if they destroy totally whats out there now, in a few months the difficulty shoots way way up and it's stabilized out again.
Just remember, your bitcoins are worth exactly what someone else is willing to pay for them.
Aaron
Just remember, your bitcoins are worth exactly what someone else is willing to pay for them.
Aaron
So, will ASIC's affect peoples behavior when it comes to buying and selling bitcoins? I expect it will. I know it will for me.
Ok, in what way? More apt to hold or more apt to sell?
It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.
There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).
Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?
The exchange rate is a function of supply and demand. The rate of minting new BTC is about to be cut in half but this is not the full story for supply. People still have to be willing to sell. So, will ASIC's affect peoples behavior when it comes to buying and selling bitcoins? I expect it will. I know it will for me. Some short term volatility is probably in the works regarding the exchange rate as a result. After all, there will be new competition coming to the table with shiny new ASICs and some of the existing video card miners will be dropping out.
So, my suggestion would be: SPECULATE.
I'm on it..
That made me legitimately LOL.
So, my suggestion would be: SPECULATE.
I'm on it..
It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.
There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).
Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?
it wont. not really
what will happen is all the miners that held off selling for the reward drop, will panic sell when they see the reward halfing had little effect on price + mining with the new ASICs is going to be barely profitable, that's one more reason to sell off the horde.
how much coins have been mined for hording?
i think half of all coins is not a bad guess... that's 5million coins.... HELLO!
supply with literally double over night.
The Plunge! its coming... are you ready
I also agree that we will see a massive Bitcoin dump. But when? That is anybody's guess. It might happen now or it might happen once the price shoots through the roof. And one more thing, if the dump happens later, then the price after the dump might still be higher than current prices. So, my suggestion would be: SPECULATE.
i am speculating... i still have more then half of my coins.
It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.
There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).
Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?
it wont. not really
what will happen is all the miners that held off selling for the reward drop, will panic sell when they see the reward halfing had little effect on price + mining with the new ASICs is going to be barely profitable, that's one more reason to sell off the horde.
how much coins have been mined for hording?
i think half of all coins is not a bad guess... that's 5million coins.... HELLO!
supply with literally double over night.
The Plunge! its coming... are you ready
I also agree that we will see a massive Bitcoin dump. But when? That is anybody's guess. It might happen now or it might happen once the price shoots through the roof. And one more thing, if the dump happens later, then the price after the dump might still be higher than current prices. So, my suggestion would be: SPECULATE.
I think that the vast majority of all bitcoins, like 90+ percent have been held for hoarding.
However I don't think that has nessecary a big impact on the price. At least not short/mid term. How do they say?
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
On the topic: No we are not in a bubble.
This is either a bubble echo or not a bubble at all. In which case we would remain over the previous ATH for a very long time, possible forever. The thing however is you cannot say for certain if it is one (a bubble echo) or not till it is too late (prices get over previous ATH and stay there or never reach it)
However I don't think that has nessecary a big impact on the price. At least not short/mid term. How do they say?
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
On the topic: No we are not in a bubble.
This is either a bubble echo or not a bubble at all. In which case we would remain over the previous ATH for a very long time, possible forever. The thing however is you cannot say for certain if it is one (a bubble echo) or not till it is too late (prices get over previous ATH and stay there or never reach it)
It makes sense that there is a lot of speculation with the hash rate change and ASIC's coming out.
There are 7,200 BTC issued per day (well, until around Nov 30th, then 3,600 BTC issued per day) -- regardless of the amount of mining (with the exception of the few days until difficulty adjusts for any rise or fall).
Why would the hash rate and ASICs coming out affect the Bitcoin exchange rate?
it wont. not really
what will happen is all the miners that held off selling for the reward drop, will panic sell when they see the reward halfing had little effect on price + mining with the new ASICs is going to be barely profitable, that's one more reason to sell off the horde.
how much coins have been mined for hording?
i think half of all coins is not a bad guess... that's 5million coins.... HELLO!
supply with literally double over night.
The Plunge! its coming... are you ready
Well some folks mine to sell them, if they get a bunch more because of a faster rig, they might drop their prices, especially if they are looking to pay off that new rig fairly quick and then profit later.
Ill sell my coins at 10 a pop instead of holding out for a few weeks or months possibly hoping that it might go to 12 and not drop to 8.... as an example. I will want to recoup my investment in the new asic and machine.
There is a possibility that the price will drop.
Aaron
Ill sell my coins at 10 a pop instead of holding out for a few weeks or months possibly hoping that it might go to 12 and not drop to 8.... as an example. I will want to recoup my investment in the new asic and machine.
There is a possibility that the price will drop.
Aaron
They can't get a bunch more except for a few days or maybe weeks because as they get better at finding blocks blocks get harder to find.
Well some folks mine to sell them, if they get a bunch more because of a faster rig, they might drop their prices, especially if they are looking to pay off that new rig fairly quick and then profit later.
Ill sell my coins at 10 a pop instead of holding out for a few weeks or months possibly hoping that it might go to 12 and not drop to 8.... as an example. I will want to recoup my investment in the new asic and machine.
There is a possibility that the price will drop.
Aaron
Ill sell my coins at 10 a pop instead of holding out for a few weeks or months possibly hoping that it might go to 12 and not drop to 8.... as an example. I will want to recoup my investment in the new asic and machine.
There is a possibility that the price will drop.
Aaron
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