Are we on the edge of first Phase. - page 2.

buwaytress

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Quote from: STT on January 02, 2025, 06:59:45 PM

Certainly price action doesnt indicate a top just a pullback, the ideal is buy into the pullbacks recognizing relative strength etc. its hard to do especially from afar.

It's an easy one for the scalpers to aim for too, 100k or thereabouts, sell/scalp, and then buy each pullback before another move. They'll want to do this many more times for easy gains until price discovery has had its say. Doesn't affect me or commentators, so it's always easy to judge these moves but I think we also get fewer and fewer preemptive buys for those who believe the true peak is in 2025.

EL MOHA

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Quote from: Hamza2424 on January 02, 2025, 02:50:47 PM

With the end of January if bitcoin doesn't hit a new All-Time-High any cross-testing form these levels will get rejected. Obviously we are hopeful for the next wave but I'm kind of curious how do you guys thnk about the market in which direction we are heading (Consolidation over 4 to 6 months, New All-Time-High or a Dump to shake emotions below 85k).

I can’t obviously agree less with you, since that super run in November and early December where we had bitcoin setting a new all time high of $108k I had this prediction that will be in state of consolidation after many stats shows that there were heavy outflows which means some holders took profit, since then we have been consolidating, I actually expected a dip than we even went too but seeing the support at $82k holding on firmly I will say it is my base support for now, although there is a secondary support at $90k I expect that one to hold until maybe we experience any kind of bearish news that will create a FUD.

But as you have said if we don’t get a huge volume inflow like we had when we set the current ATH I think the fear index will kick and might force weak hands to sell. For now many investors are waiting on the trump verdict and then see where the market goes then. For me this is a period to have a diamond hand

Odusko

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Quote from: Hamza2424 on January 03, 2025, 08:06:58 AM

Quote from: Odusko on January 02, 2025, 03:13:30 PM

SNIP...

Hoping for the best but honestly the role of 12th Jan to 20th Jan is going to play a crucial role, but for the ATH we are still not certain as it requires good volume otherwise as I said any move from the peak range breakthrough is going to be reject with a strong resistance.

Regardless of what is expected politically, I think we have to conclude that Bitcoin has its pattern of movement and it can go against the expectation of any speculation regardless of the data and analysis used, so for sure I agree with you 100% that volume is a key driving factor to push the price of Bitcoin to another possible ATH and at the moment we can see a positive demand towards that, so let wait time will tell, but above all keep holding.

Hamza2424

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Quote from: Odusko on January 02, 2025, 03:13:30 PM

SNIP...

Hoping for the best but honestly the role of 12th Jan to 20th Jan is going to play a crucial role, but for the ATH we are still not certain as it requires good volume otherwise as I said any move from the peak range breakthrough is going to be reject with a strong resistance.

Quote from: Lida93 on January 02, 2025, 05:46:41 PM

At the moment there's no phenomenal event expected in the month of January that can be considered to positively affect bitcoin price unlike what we are all waiting in anticipation for in February when power will change hands in the White House setting the pace to the journey of a bitcoin pro president, an event that is believed to trigger a take off to probably a new ATH to the price of bitcoin. Hence, January is going to be a rally month and which I am even speculating that we could even have price go below the 85k mark you're speculating to rally down to, but definitely not fall below 69k -70k because there seems to be a strong support at that point in my view.

Hmm, throughout the entire month, I can agree with you but 20th Jan will play a crucial role as I said before it can be a turning point based on the previous weeks' performance. So we cant say that there's nothing positive in JAN the shift of power is the strong enough ground to boost the market.

Edit: for the rest of the replies I'll be covering in the next posts.. I will greatly appreciate your organic comments on the topic as it can help me to understand the current psychology of the market

fikrett

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Quote from: justdimin on January 03, 2025, 07:31:34 AM

Quote from: terrific on January 03, 2025, 06:14:23 AM

While if the market plummets and that could be some factor for rejection and longer, still, I am optimistic and following the golden rule and pattern of 4-yeart cycle.

I agree about your view but I guess we need to switch over from some old patterns like this time bitcoin may have longer bullrun than a year and bears may not get enough strength to bring the bottom up to 80% from the ATH. I may remain wrong still we need to consider the level of adaption happening right now. When more people are on buying side, I speculate about the collapse of usual 4 year cycle.

Even I do not have any plan for cashing out within this cycle, I do follow carefully about the changes in bitcoin's usual market cycle. Because that may help me in future for the scenarios like when I add more or when I exit partially.

Just put on a target and cash out when it's reached.
No matter what would happen next, you will get your reward for your diamond hands.

justdimin

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Quote from: terrific on January 03, 2025, 06:14:23 AM

While if the market plummets and that could be some factor for rejection and longer, still, I am optimistic and following the golden rule and pattern of 4-yeart cycle.

I agree about your view but I guess we need to switch over from some old patterns like this time bitcoin may have longer bullrun than a year and bears may not get enough strength to bring the bottom up to 80% from the ATH. I may remain wrong still we need to consider the level of adaption happening right now. When more people are on buying side, I speculate about the collapse of usual 4 year cycle.

Even I do not have any plan for cashing out within this cycle, I do follow carefully about the changes in bitcoin's usual market cycle. Because that may help me in future for the scenarios like when I add more or when I exit partially.

fikrett

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Quote from: terrific on January 03, 2025, 06:14:23 AM

I wouldn't base the run of this bull until the end of the month. Yeah, sure Trump might be the deciding factor when he sits as the POTUS but that's not the end game for this cycle. There's still a lot more to consider and I wouldn't put a lot of stress thinking about them, I'll just let them come, I'm holding, sold some and will keep on doing the DCA for myself. While if the market plummets and that could be some factor for rejection and longer, still, I am optimistic and following the golden rule and pattern of 4-yeart cycle.

Trump and what would be with him is just another cog in the machine that is already running.
There are lots of other bullish events to shape the sentiment and it would happen sooner or later - so 2025 should be the year to see great results in any case.

terrific

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I wouldn't base the run of this bull until the end of the month. Yeah, sure Trump might be the deciding factor when he sits as the POTUS but that's not the end game for this cycle. There's still a lot more to consider and I wouldn't put a lot of stress thinking about them, I'll just let them come, I'm holding, sold some and will keep on doing the DCA for myself. While if the market plummets and that could be some factor for rejection and longer, still, I am optimistic and following the golden rule and pattern of 4-yeart cycle.

Jating

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Quote from: Lida93 on January 02, 2025, 05:46:41 PM

Quote from: Hamza2424 on January 02, 2025, 02:50:47 PM

as far I speculate in my view we are now in a trap zone and the market is for sure gonna be in critical zone after 21 to 25 days. In more description, according to my analysis, we are gonna stick to a zone of 87.5k to 108.5k for a long time if the market doesn't hit a new peak in the next almost 20 days.

At the moment there's no phenomenal event expected in the month of January that can be considered to positively affect bitcoin price unlike what we are all waiting in anticipation for in February when power will change hands in the White House setting the pace to the journey of a bitcoin pro president, an event that is believed to trigger a take off to probably a new ATH to the price of bitcoin. Hence, January is going to be a rally month and which I am even speculating that we could even have price go below the 85k mark you're speculating to rally down to, but definitely not fall below 69k -70k because there seems to be a strong support at that point in my view.

What do you mean? Haven't you followed the US politics? Trump will be officially held office in January, so that is a big news for Bitcoin as we all know that Trump is pro-crypto President. So that news alone could really be big for us and it will set the stage of what this year will be as this is the last leg of the bull run and everyone is expecting that he will have a big rally.

But for the $85k'ish? hmm, it's hard to see that we will touch this price again, even with the negative news that hits us in the last 2-3 weeks of December after that magical run to $108k, the price didn't go < $90k. Unless their is really a big news coming from the US again that will pull down the price to that level.

Dave1

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Quote from: Hamza2424 on January 02, 2025, 02:50:47 PM

I do believe that we are somewhere at the end of our first phase rally and I want to ask what you guys think about the market from the current level, as far I speculate in my view we are now in a trap zone and the market is for sure gonna be in critical zone after 21 to 25 days. In more description, according to my analysis, we are gonna stick to a zone of 87.5k to 108.5k for a long time if the market doesn't hit a new peak in the next almost 20 days.

With the end of January if bitcoin doesn't hit a new All-Time-High any cross-testing form these levels will get rejected. Obviously we are hopeful for the next wave but I'm kind of curious how do you guys thnk about the market in which direction we are heading (Consolidation over 4 to 6 months, New All-Time-High or a Dump to shake emotions below 85k).

What do you think of Trump though getting inaugurated at the 20th? And it does coincide with your speculation that if we didn't hit a new all time high by the end of the month, we might see a rejections and it will be like sideways pattern for us.

But when a new sets of FOMO comes in in the 20th, then we might hit a new all time high. Invalidating everyone and forming another pattern.

So let's see how it goes if we are going to be in a trap zone of and goes down hard at $87.5k or going into a new all time high as the confidence of investors are with the Trump administration.

Pi-network314159

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Quote from: Hamza2424 on January 02, 2025, 02:50:47 PM

With the end of January if bitcoin doesn't hit a new All-Time-High any cross-testing form these levels will get rejected. Obviously we are hopeful for the next wave but I'm kind of curious how do you guys thnk about the market in which direction we are heading (Consolidation over 4 to 6 months, New All-Time-High or a Dump to shake emotions below 85k).

i believe a new all time high{ATH} is possible, no shakes emotion below 85k. i don't think bitcoin will fall as low as $85k but hopefully we will cross this staggering price. i believe this year will be more bullish, despite there will be some correction but i don't think if it can fall below the price you have mention. but lets be hopeful and see what the market has to offer this year.

maydna

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The market situation now seems to be sideways for temporary because if you check at the line, it shows that the price is not increase very high or very low and not even break the newest high price. The price stay at the certain level and only moves to that level without showing the chance to break the next high price or down to the lower price. But this situation can be a trap for those who are not ready with the situation.

Perhaps in this month, we will see the price will not moves significant and only be like this for some time. So there will be more chances for the price to increase so high in the next month.

STT

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First phase of this was end of 2023 probably so over a year ago and its really hard to capture that level of move because of the degree of doubt but also that shows in the price. Now the price rose and you have to sort if you think this is too much already, to alot of people they will not want to be involved or buy any BTC at this price where as I hope to recognize from prior bull moves that this price isnt really anywhere near a peak price. Certainly price action doesnt indicate a top just a pullback, the ideal is buy into the pullbacks recognizing relative strength etc. its hard to do especially from afar.

Lida93

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Quote from: Hamza2424 on January 02, 2025, 02:50:47 PM

as far I speculate in my view we are now in a trap zone and the market is for sure gonna be in critical zone after 21 to 25 days. In more description, according to my analysis, we are gonna stick to a zone of 87.5k to 108.5k for a long time if the market doesn't hit a new peak in the next almost 20 days.

At the moment there's no phenomenal event expected in the month of January that can be considered to positively affect bitcoin price unlike what we are all waiting in anticipation for in February when power will change hands in the White House setting the pace to the journey of a bitcoin pro president, an event that is believed to trigger a take off to probably a new ATH to the price of bitcoin. Hence, January is going to be a rally month and which I am even speculating that we could even have price go below the 85k mark you're speculating to rally down to, but definitely not fall below 69k -70k because there seems to be a strong support at that point in my view.

Odusko

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The possibility of Bitcoin hitting another all-time high before the 20th of January is quite low, but I am sure that we are not going to rally below 80k to 90k before that 20th of this month so for sure we are at a phase where the volatilities in the market become stable a bit, but after the inauguration of the US president the market is going to enter into another phase of skyrocketing in price and we definitely going to see a new all-time high price at that time going forward, buy buy buy but only hold the amount you can afford to put aside for a long time to reduce the pressure that comes from Bitcoin market volatilities.

Hamza2424

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I do believe that we are somewhere at the end of our first phase rally and I want to ask what you guys think about the market from the current level, as far I speculate in my view we are now in a trap zone and the market is for sure gonna be in critical zone after 21 to 25 days. In more description, according to my analysis, we are gonna stick to a zone of 87.5k to 108.5k for a long time if the market doesn't hit a new peak in the next almost 20 days.

With the end of January if bitcoin doesn't hit a new All-Time-High any cross-testing form these levels will get rejected. Obviously we are hopeful for the next wave but I'm kind of curious how do you guys thnk about the market in which direction we are heading (Consolidation over 4 to 6 months, New All-Time-High or a Dump to shake emotions below 85k).

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