Topic: Area under the 2013 exponential trendline is nearing the area above it (Read 3697 times)

Lol in English it's going up until it starts going down. I Can't see TA predicting the benchmark events that triggers either trend.

No.  Most of the time, yes.  But sometimes there is a reversal pattern staring you in the face and at those times the ongoing trend is less likely to continue.

I've been thinking about making this since the MtGox huge lag and the correction, this is what speculators need, not to follow the exchange with the most liquidity (when it freezes up) but to follow the global combined liquidity of all exchanges.

Most of my coins are in cold storage apart from a few as play money and that means AWAY from Gox so certainly I'm not contributing the Bid sum.

We are most definitely in post-crash territory when it comes to TA, Tabula Rasa as they say. The last 6 weeks are the basis by which we can judge BTC meaningfully. Any future exponential growth will NOT be a continuation of any existing line; it will start from a new point but the maths we used to judge it as a bubble will be the same.

The most fundamental bullish sign is we are not under $100 right now.

BTC has got some hibernating to do while it becomes leaner, more legal and gets out of the Fed's gunsights. Also while other exchanges relieve MtGox of the mantle of being the main place to trade it. Any spike won't happen day-to-day, those getting into 2013's bubble had plenty of time buy in at a price/risk ratio that suited them.

There's crumbs to be had from day trading I suppose.

My position at the moment:
I'm 90% cold storage BTC, 10% fiat on an exchange which isn't Gox. I'm tempted to sell 10% more for a minor buying opp a little lower. I now consider all the altcoins junk, even LTC but will eat humble pie if LTC ever makes $10.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area

This isn't any kind of charting technique. I'm simply point out that it's premature to call the end of the trend when we've been above it just as much as below it. It's expected that the bubble will result in a lull of some degree of protractedness. I'm not saying the trend will continue, but that there's no particular reason based on the price data itself to believe it won't.

The comment about grasping at straws is especially ironic, because the OP was intended exactly to prevent people from grasping at straws to declare the trend as over. It may be over, but the mere fact that we happen to be below it now does not imply that, any more than the fact that we happened to be above a few weeks ago - especially since we've not even been below it any more than we've been above it.

We need a weighted average price from all the major exchanges.

It's not so much that this price woud be more useful (it'd be almost the same as the MtGox price usually), but that by popularizing this as the standard it would help dethrone MtGox at the standardbearer, aiding in much-needed decentralization.

This. Bill Gates thinking tomorrow that it would be good to have a million bitcoins is not considering any trendlines.

Gavin deciding tomorrow that he has enough bitcoins to pay off the mortgage on his house is not following trendlines.

It signals nothing, the beginning and end of the month are just two random data points, you need to look at the entire picture.

BitcoinAshley, you might be confusing ask and bids.


Still around 65%, give or take a couple points. As soon as movement begins, MtGox sees volume increments much bigger than other exchanges

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

Aaaaaaaand Bitcoin closes the month lower than it started. What didn't happen in April, with the crash right in the middle of the month, has happened now for the first time since october. I'll let wise people draw conclusions on that, can't decide if it signals better times ahead or the opposite.

The only straw-grasping here is the fellow who said "Gox ask sum is declining!" while cleverly neglecting to mention that Gox bid sum along with total Gox market share is also declining. 

Oversight, or intentional trollage? You decide.

Nice strawman. Pointing out that an analysis is baseless isn't attacking your perma-bull position. (That is for another thread.)

Can you give some kind of citation for your charting technique? Ive never heard of it before.

Really great analysis.  I think with the recent exposure though and increased overall consciousness about BTC, even a consecutive month or two of 5-10% could be sufficient impetus for another hype cycle with a greater volume from speculators.

Umm, how is that nearing the area above it? The trend line keeps going up and the price is over $100 away from catching up.

Looking at the long term trend from early bitcoin to today would indicate we are just about at the right price being in the low 100s. The bubble action was fun but it appears that we have returned to where we would have been without the spike. Which is healthy.

The lack of volatility will be a self fulfilling prophecy in that we will have less wild swings because the day traders are sidelined at the moment. At least the people who think they are day traders because they got a couple of good gambles while the price was flying all over the place. Volume should go down and we will return to business as usual.

Now people need to focus on creating Bitcoin businesses to make money instead of trying to gamble. Which will help the price in the long run.

A good 5-10% per month rise will be about right. Though as the volume falls, you will be able to see the big money movers come in once in a while and throw things one way or the other on their own terms.

Welcome to the speculation forum...

So much grasping at straws around here

I tend to use the price quoted on MtGox to be a good representation of the entire bitcoin economy. Maybe the day is coming that we need a new way of determining the overall market price. If people are leaving MtGox but stil actively buying and selling bitcoins by other means then thats a very healthy thing.

Its a nice chart, we need a pretty steep and sudden rise to get back to the trendline though which doesnt look like itll happen to me. Enthusiasm has been damped a fair bit by the big price drop.

coinsetter looking to fix that?

Ask sum has as well.  MtGox has lost about 20% marketshare in the past couple weeks too.

Now if you had a combined order book of all exchanges and the combined bid sum lost more than the combined ask sum then you might be on to something.

I am feeling bearish because fiat is running from Gox. "Regulation" scares are not helpful. However, every time a ton of hash has hit the network we have seen a good jump in price. Who knows.

But setting trends from the start of bitcoin life is ridiculous. You can't draw conclusions from a sub million dollar bitcoin market and extrapolate it to the present at a billion plus; that's like comparing starbucks in 1985 to now.... Trends in the bitcoin market are generally specious because market fundamentals can change on a dime.

the trend is my friend

It's speculation using historical trends of varying lengths to try to find some kind of usable pattern in the price action.

At any given time, an ongoing trend is more likely to continue than not (thus the old investment adage, "The trend is your friend"). So there is a lot of interest in identifying what "the" trend is. People present different trends and try to explain why they think the price is tracking their trend and what might have triggered that trend. Trends can be multilayered; there can be trends within trends (within trends).

In this case we had a remarkably steady, clear trend of fast exponential growth from mid-January until April. Just a few weeks after it started, I asked what might happen if it were to continue, then in mid-February I extrapolated that trend to predict $100 by the end of April even though a bitcoin was only $25 at the time.

Then the bubble started it onto double-exponential (exponential growth in the rate of price growth, rather than just exponential growth in price) and went way above the trendline, exceeding even my incredibly bullish predictions that were laughed at. That was great for a while, but then the bubble popped and the price fell quite a ways below the trendline. What now?

Well the question arises: Are we still following that same trend? Right now we are well below the trendline, so it could be argued the technical damage from the bubble broke whatever fundamental reason that was driving the exponential growth since mid-January. However, it can alternatively be argued that it is pointless to say we are no longer tracking the trendline when we haven't been below the trendline any more than we've been above it (the green and red regions in the first graph are about equal). It could be argued that we should at least wait until we've been below the trendline for a lot longer than we were above it before we start to wonder if the 2013 exponential growth trend has been broken.

Moreover, if we go with the assumption that the trend will continue (since "the trend is your friend"), then the fact that we've spent this much time this far below the trendline indicates we are likely to go higher in the coming weeks. Conversely, if we spend a lot more time below the trendline, it would give reason to start to doubt the 2013 trendline, perhaps reverting to the historical trendline posted above.

I fail to see how this really means much, but I'll trust you smart people

Go Bitcoin, go!

The historical trend means only around $500/BTC at the end of the year, which is a lot less than the $10,000/BTC we'd have if we continued with the 2013 trendline.

I feel pretty safe then saying that the price will rise by somewhere between 4x and 100x by year-end.

Keep dreaming... the historical trendline looks more likely. I doubt we'll see a return to the 2013 exp. line anytime soon.

I'm still extremely bullish, don't get me wrong.

As for Gox volume, chances are people are just moving to other exchanges or OTC rather than actually leaving Bitcoin altogether. And as has been said, low volume during stable periods is completely normal. Not very many people want to trade on swings when the swings are only $1-2 dollars at a time.

That chart looks way more short-term bullish than mine. It makes this latest "bubble" look like nothing more than a warm-up.

What about another scale ?

The current trend fits perfectly the historic trendline

I think we'll be stable for a while, until good or bad news hits and the market is able to decide which way to go from here. Could be wrong though, you never know with bitcoin.

Low volume is what you'd expect during stable periods.


Pruden = Proudhon?

No.

People have decided to hold their BTCs as a long time investment. They moved bitcoins to their paper wallets.

This is most likely money moving away from Gox to other exchanges.

Bid sum in MtGox has lost 25% of its strength in the past couple of weeks and keeps going down. There is nothing coiled.

While my prediction for <105$ within this week was admitedly an exageration (at least it got me a quote by smoothie  ), the price is not going up anytime soon.

I take this to mean the bubble grief has almost bled out and we are close to reverting to the exponential growth trendline that started in January.