Well the ultra-fast exponential run-up scenario didn't play out like I fantasized here (it was just an interesting possibility). It may have continued for quite a while longer if not for MtGox getting swamped, and it's possible that it's just delayed until now, but considering some other parameters - like how long it will take for infrastructure and user-friendliness to reach the level required for mainstream adoption - it would be impossible to continue at the Spring 2013 pace for very long.
I now think what happened was that the 2011 crash burned in people's memories left the price languishing too low for too long, and Spring 2013 was the upward correction of that. There may be more upward correcting to do, but either way I still absolutely believe that Bitcoin is on an exponential growth path. Just a slower one. Tenfold per year seems about right, since that jives with history and also allows 3-5 years for full mainstream adoption to happen, which seems not too unreasonable.
Or maybe even up to 7-10 years considering the exponential curve would turn toward an S-curve midway through mainstream adoption. But anyway, within 5 years if Bitcoin is going to do its thing it's going to be a totally different world we're living in, with anyone who has any today-decent amount of coins being very wealthy then (unless they panic sell, and most of course will
).
10x per year is still a very fast rate that will cause all the things I mentioned in the OP to happen, as can be seen from looking over the history of this forum, even if it's much slower than the 10x per season we had Jan-April 2013.