Topic: Aren't we in a state of denial? (MARKET CYCLE UPDATED, VOTES RESET) (Read 3186 times)

If the Core team does not want to change the block size soon, due to the conflict of interest, I will most people will support Classic and learn a lesson from the process.

I think it all depends on how other versions are taken... Block size changes are inevitably coming soon, but perhaps not on the Core client. If Classic is adopted and a fork occurs, then it's about how people perceive that change. If negatively, then we stay flat or go down until Core gets their shit together and we fork back to Core. But then it's two forks, and ain't nobody got fo dat! So more likely imo, if we fork to another development, that will be it, and we all have to deal with the repercussions. Users who are against this change, will leave and Bitcoin will get its true test of sustainability.

That really didn't answer my question.  It's not about doubting..  And your answer makes me think that we are indeed in a state of denial as no one wants to face reality.  Go read the question again.

True, and for the doubters, haven't you guys been here long enough, we've seen lows of down to $200 last year. It's a really complex cycle, a lot of factors blend in and it takes time.

What I'm concerned today is this statement:

"It's proven easier to get a bank to participate in payments standards than a bitcoin community company," by the W3C Web Payments. He further added that "these companies aren’t looking to interoperate, but instead want to dominate."

It's easy to assume that they'll kill BTC if given the chance right now.

I agree.  But what if that comes 4 - 5 years from now...?  So BTC price will stay at current level or lower?

That was not halving pump, that was a boost in price coinciding with large hashing deployment by Bitmain and Bitfury.

In fact, miners rewards are LOWER now (in $$ per the same hashing power) than they were in September of 2015, despite somewhat higher price (from $225 to 373 now).
Sharp difficulty increases ate all mining rewards and then some. This resulted in ALL miner purchases made in September-October to be projected as unprofitable in the longer run without taking into consideration halving projected in July.

Maybe this whole thing is a reflection of the fact that humans are unable to reach consensus on pretty much anything that matters.
I think that bitcoin was badly damaged by the 'premature' price spike of 2013, which resulted in too many economic actors and policy makers pressing their case before the software was ready. As far as going forward-who knows.

I think that is a huge factor right now. The community's inability to come to a consensus on block size is a worrying sign for the year ahead. If we do come to ANY change then I think it will send buy signals.

When the Bitcoin Core decides to adopt higher block size, the price will rise dramatically. It will be at least $600.

halving pump happened two months ago.... btc is 18 months from the next pump...... get over it

As more and more time passes by I think we're all in denial.  The trend is now down.

Sub 300$, but above 200$, would still allow a shoehorned bullish scenario. If 200$ will be broken, then very likely a new lower low (than January 2015) will follow and possibly double digits.
Here are the bid sum / ask sum ratios for the last 6 months and 4 exchanges (BTC-E not included, looks more bullish, probably due to Russian capital flight):

MatTheCat, thanks for this nice analysis. I believe we agree in many points you made, as stated not only in this thread. I also see $500-600, as the target resulting from the halving event, if there is no other support due to the fundamental developments that would influence the adoption. Apart of that, we are driven by Chinese speculators, so it is up to them what is in the cards for the coming months, but I would also expect actions similar to that recent November pump and dump afterwards to repeat.
 

Yep, we're dope! That's where/what we are right now!

Joke aside, we are all in on the beginning wave of a massive monetary takeover, by the people. Unless one is a trader, I don't think one should ever sell one's Bitcoin. Instead we should all start using it, then whatever price it would be wouldn't matter anymore as it would slowly become the new standard currency.

So I guess the answer will depend on the market then?  If it goes down sub 300 it's denial, if it continues going up we're at optimism...?  And since no one can really predict the market, how do we really know if it's denial or optimism?

Always interesting to be reminded of these market psychology - market state profiles, because no matter how many times we see these things, and recognise our own past errors in these schematics, we (or most of us), repeat the same old trader fails, time and time again.

I am not sure whether we can class Bitcoin as a commodity or a currency, but Bitcoin is similar to a commodity in that it has a clear cost of production. Commodities don't generally go much below the cost of production, because beneath a certain price point, it just isn't worth the producers effort to bring the commodity to the market place.

So what is the cost of producing Bitcoin? How much does it cost the miners, who maintain the whole network, to keep their mining farms switched on. That cost greatly varies, depending on who you are, where you are based, and what sort of deal you have with the power company. For miners who are currently in operation, that cost ranges anywhere between $150 - $300. Miners with a greater cost of production than that, would have been forced out the game during 2015, leaving the mining capacity in increasingly fewer hands (so much for decentralised money of freedom - lol). Indeed, it is entirely likely that the big Chinese Miners, deliberately pushed Bitcoin down into the dirt, where only they could breath, in order to shake off the 'weak' competition from their game. Perhaps not a lot unlike what is happening with oil prices today, with the US/West happy up to a point to 'tolerate' Saudi Arabia keeping the market flooded with oil, in order that enemies of Petrodollar hegemony are squeezed, with the idea of forcing them to capitulate thier hands in other key areas.

So, we have had an entire year, of Bitcoin being priced at near production levels, forcing all but the most large scale mining operations out of the game. And we have the halving event just 6 months or so down the road. We have had our 'price war', where the Chinese Bitcoin Cowboys have emerged has clear overall winners, with action on Chinese exchanges now dominating the whole market. With the average cost of production set to double, presuming that Bitcoin isn't going away anytime soon, what must by logical definition happen to the spot price of Bitcoin? Soon, $300 will be the very minimum cost of producing 1 BTC and generally, commodities trade at a premium to production costs.

I believe that there will be more scares to come, and that the $350 low will be breached, and panic selling will ensue. But as per your market pyschology/state diagram, there does indeed come a time, when the bottom is well and truly in and that bottom happened one year ago. What we have now, are the Chinese BTC Cabal, pumping n dumping, swishing coins around to sucker traders in, and then scare them back out of trades, and suck all their wealth from them. 'They' want as few filthy white foreign barbarians getting in on 'their' action at optimal prices as possible. 'They' want us to be buying in, chasing momentum which they will generate.

$650 BTC is a very logical target for many reasons, and whilst I suspect a lot of resitance around here, in the long run, I can see $800 Bitcoin, and perhaps even a spike up to $1000 BTC......but of course, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see $320 BTC in the coming week or two, and a whole lot of doom n gloom surrounding the move down there.

I dont think we're gonna see another capitulation fase again while this ''denial'' situation is just created by the block-size debat.

I take my bet on relief and optimism, the only obstacle before a decent lift-off is the block-size issue, wich is a luxury problem. There is enough brainpower in the BTC pool to solve it.

Block-size fix+incomming halving+Blockchain media fenzy wil trigger a run up...i'm gonna eat my cat food if that doesn't happen.

I don't think it is a necessary condition to test $320s in order to resume the growth. The support cluster between $400 and $350 looks pretty rock solid and for now I don't see the arguments for breaking $350 support lines. In the most recent attempts bears had thrown all but kitchen sink (Mike's retirement, Cryptsy, etc.), and yet were not able to break $350. Now having said that, I also currently don't see solid arguments for further growth. Meaning, there is the third option: more of sidewards trend. Pretty boring and very exhausting for investors (not to say all the quick guys in this forum), but also part of the game. To me we will stay a little longer while sidewards. There is no such option on your picture, though.

Now that the new market cycle pic almost closely represents reality, people tend to avoid the topic of denial.