Topic: Argentina heading for a repeat of 2001 collapse (Read 7348 times)

It is the same when US in the early development stage. Land were given away freely for anyone willing to develop it and add value to it.

Same story in China regarding real estate. And China wealth is backed by real labor and real production, not just real estate.

You are talking about growth of GDP that doesn't take into account increasing debts and fake government inflation number; give me the variation in revenue after taxes in real terms or in Gold from 1940 to now and 1970 to now and the median capital in real terms or gold...

Whilst i agree that the main fiat currency problems are western based some bigger hitters are  trying to get this tipping point message across. (www.philanthropyandphilosophy.com) Argentina along with Iceland and maybe Cyprus or even the Ukraine may be a country to adopt bitcoin as a national currency. This would be huge for btc and turn these countries dire prospects on their heads. One example is all thats required to show real real growth and a more equal distribution of wealth once the banks and government and corporate leeches are thrown of the backs of wealth craters- thats my hope.

China is big creditor nation to US. If a crisis happen there, it will be worse in US as money will be repatriate back.

What you're describing is what happened in the U.S. from about 1946 - 2000. The most vigorous, sustained periods of growth, took place from early 1961 to mid-1969, with an expansion of 53% (5.1% a year), from mid-1991 to late in 2000, at 43% (3.8% a year), and from late 1982 to mid-1990, at 37% (4% a year).  After the financial crisis of 2008, it's been all downhill for the U.S. 

But this doesn't change what PirateHatForTea said about the Chinese economy.  The shadow banking system there is hiding billions in bad investments and ponzi schemes.  It's like a house of cards, just waiting for a few bad apples to fall.  Once the whole thing starts to snowball, the Chinese government won't be able to bail them all out.

1 Billion people going out of extreme poverty in a few decades, average hourly salary going up 5-15% every year, hundreds of millions of people living as well as in Europe or USA (same average salary after tax) and the number is growing by 5-12% a year when it wasn't a few millions that were living as well as in Europe or US a few decades ago

Does that feel like an economical failure?? No, it is a huge success, the best success story of the last 30years in terms of magnitude

China is not a total success story either. There are stories of success, but there is a huge amount of hidden malinvestment that has yet to fall out. There are plenty of insolvent companies and investment schemes being held up by the government.

You summarised it well, the USD will collapse if the oil producers abandon it and if the bond market stop loaning the money

China will benefit of the USD collapse, the question is when the collapse be brutal (more likely) or slow and when will it happen? Within a year? Two years? Or can it still go for as long as 5years??

When everything collapses like in Argentina, the politicians leave office and are replaced by extremists or they don't accept their mistakes like in Argentina and say it is the fault of external forces that want to destroy the country, and people believe it because it reinforces what they still believed and they don't have to challenge their ideas

What makes you think the USA can keep importing stuff forever without exporting nearly as much?

Once the petrodollar fails (which should be soon as America is starting to get a lot of resistance both internally and externally) you can say goodbye to your wealth if it's in dollars.

You can only talk about failures for so long, at some point you have to compare them to the success stories, and the US is no longer a success story.

How did a thread about argentina turn into a thread about china?

China will be better off producing and consuming; the chinese will consume as well as the americans, it is not the hardest part!


The Communist Party knows it needs to deliver economic prosperity to stay in power; the Central Politburo Standing Committee in China have the smartest guys that take decisions to maximise China's (and the Communist Party's) utility in 10years, 20 years 30 years or even more

Couldn't agree more about moving with your feet, and yes I did that for many years. Lived & worked in Asia and made the base of my savings out there.

The difficulty is its not like the US where anyone from anywhere can come, adapt, assimilate and become integrated as part of the people. In China/Korea if you're not Asia you'll always be an outsider/foreigner. You can live well, make friends, but you can never really be Korean or Japanese or Chinese. (In the end I think this closed aspect is what will ultimately cause the recent successes there to fail)


Fully agree. In Korea/China there is a large emerging population of middle class people who worked hard and generated solid US style middle class wealth. But that's at the middle.

Above that are the ones described above who come from families politically connected and abused the corruption in their respective countries to obtain stupid wealth. In Korea every kid I met who drove a family paid for BMW, after understanding the system there better, I saw as coming from families with grossly unfair advantage and not deserving of that wealth compared to those below them who are the real backbone of their economies and who are making their country's success. They're also spending this easy money like crazy, if the easy money stops coming in I'm sure it won't last long.

Did they really come out of poverty, or did their Chinese Gov't 'engineer' them out of poverty?  

20 years ago, the Chinese citizens were at the lowest point.  They were focusing hard on trying to overthrow their Communistic form of government, because they felt that it was holding them down while the rest of the world prospered.  The Chinese citizens HATED their government and wanted a revolution.  They wanted Democracy, and capitalism.  The Chinese government was worried, and they needed something to distract their citizens away from hating the government control so much.  So what did they decide to do?  The made their economy better.  A brilliant move on their part.  By better, I mean that they engineered the Chinese economy to have the veneer of real change and improvement.  The Chinese government used it's Billions of funds to invest in its own economy and infrastructure.  It put restrictive capital controls in place to make sure money stayed in China, and suppressed the value of the Yuan to keep export of Chinese goods high.  It started offering cheap, high quality education for it's own people. A Chinese shadow banking system arose, that started to offer cheap credit to entrepreneurs to be able to invest in just about any Chinese-related business endeavor.  Incentives were offered for the people to invest in local real estate, which rose in value.  

Suddenly everyone's salaries magically went up, poverty went down, and the people thrived.  The people were making money and it appeared that their lives were improving, so of course they slowly started to shift their viewpoint away from hating their government to a form of Nationalism.  The next generation or two of children of the people who lived through the Cultural Revolution had forgotten all about the horrors that their government had put their parents and grandparents through, and actually started to have National pride instead.  It's amazing what having an abundance of money and better living conditions will do to an entire nation's psychology.  The young people there are quite oblivious to their country's dark history.  But you have to understand, it's all a fabricated facade, fabricated by their government.

And yes, the Chinese traditionally have been good savers, and always have been compared to the U.S. and the rest of the world.  But just saving alone won't save your entire country.  You have to continue to produce valuable stuff that the rest of the world wants, or your own country wants.  If either or both of those things slow down or grind to a halt, then your country's economy is going to have BIG problems moving forward.

Works for me: USA imports stuff, exports quality (with democratic, bill of rights and women's liberation bias) education

It is the same in touristic cities, most people in old countries don't know countries like bangladesh are booming and already matured in terms of demography


Chinese save in Yuan and Gold as well which will increase in value compared to the USD, their salaries are going up tremendously every year, one billion of chinese came out of poverty and they are working hard, saving a lot, their state is planning for years ahead not like in the US where they plan a week in advance or until the next election and they are accumulating so much human capital and other forms of capital than they will be the first world economy very soon and the US will fall from first place to second third ect.

Actually these Asian kids didn't work for this money.   It's their parent's money, they wire it to them to spend in the States.  Mommy and daddy didn't do anything amazing either, they simply bought real estate in China 10-15 years ago (really the only investment the Chinese gov't will allow their citizens to invest in), sat on it, and made a killer return.  It was easy money.  All of it fake wealth of course, because their real estate market is now in a bubble.  Also the Chinese gov't artificially devalues the Yuan so that they can keep exports high and keep in-sourcing work.  

But they can't keep this up forever, and when it all implodes then their citizens will be royally fked.  So will their kids.

The reserves being eroded doesn't matter, they just disappear. Most countries never touch their reserves, not even their gold, they prefer to use debt creation and bank regulations to stabilize their exchange rate. At worst we will have the other fiat currencies more unstable. Maybe they go down the drain all of them, simultaneously.

Just goes to show, you need to work harder.

They already are.  You should see the Chinese students at a local University in my neck of the woods.  It's a fairly prestigious University, and costs a pretty penny to attend.  The tuition has gone up astronomically in the last 15 years.  Even as recently as 6 years ago there were very few non-Caucasians and minorities on campus.  Now it's completely taking over by rich Chinese and Korean kids, driving around in their (paid for) Mercedes, Lexus, and BMWs.  The campus is now unrecognizable, as Caucasians and all the other groups are now the minority there.  You'd think it was a school just for Asians.

The local high-end car dealerships say that they sell about 80% of their cars now to the Asian kids attending this University, and have even started to market directly to them.