But actually using the payment systems that are in current effect (specifically UPI), I do have a hard time seeing why anyone would want to switch over. Yes it isn't global. But I would assume that the average consumer doesn't really do that many global transactions per day, its mostly buying stuff from small stores, supermarkets, transferring money to family/friends etc. UPI so far has been great for that. Yes it's controlled by the government and yes a collapse is frightening.
If people don't see any reasons why transacting at a global level, they won't replace UPI by bitcoin. For most people UPI will be the first choice, because it perfectly fulfills their daily needs. However, once they get educated on finances matter, they will avoid holding large sums of fiat on their bank accounts, so bitcoin becomes an alternative to store money, although they will continue using UPI as usual.
But what percentage of the world's population will actually care about the tech underneath it all, when all they want is convenience. I'm fascinated by the tech, don't get me wrong. But discussing it with another tech enthusiast made me actually question if large scale adoption will happen at all, just because of the convenience factor. Yep there is always a tradeoff between convenience and privacy. What is convenient isn't private. But where is the balance?
You are right. Convenience comes first. That is how the average mindset in the world works. We have bitcoin which offers total custody of your coins in your own hands, and people still prefer to put it in third party hands (exchanges). I believe it's not going to change.
As for not trusting fiat because of inflation and government motives - that's fair. But what percentage of the population actually has that fear? In my experience quite little when I come to really think of it.
Too little, indeed. Education and guidance are needed to let more people aware about this reality. It's a gradual process.
What about the volatility thing though? How would early adopters deal with that and fluctuating prices? Because currently things that are available to be bought for bitcoin, aren't really prices in bitcoin per say. They are priced in terms of what the owner expects in fiat for that item. If the value of bitcoin against that particular fiat plummets, the price in bitcoins for the item will increase. These swings are pretty common. Thinking about it, I thought of a plausible argument - that bitcoin is still in its early adoption state. It hasn't been fully realized as a medium of exchange yet. When it is, things will actually be priced in terms of just what they expect for bitcoin, as then consumers will have trust that bitcoin is a medium of store of value and a medium of exchange in and of itself.
I don't know if it will happen someday. The important is that goods are getting cheaper (in BTC), while the opposite happens when pricing in fiat. So, the more bitcoins you have, the more you are going to be able to buy tomorrow. Your purchasing power is growing progressively.