Topic: Ark Investment lanches report Big Ideas 2023: bitcoin price above 1mi in 2030 (Read 246 times)

He's the Biden of Brazil, right?

I'll never understand why people cheer for him...

In my opinion,  It is not a matter of obstacles,  but these things takes time.

For example, money flow from emerging markets. It takes times for those countries get their economies collapsed (like turkey and Argentina for example)   and people decide to go into bitcoin. Bitcoin is easier to buy now than it was 5 years ago.
And people don't want to go all in bitcoin, but in some situation that might be the only option i emerging markets.

now look at brazil situation.the new president (who was im jail for corruption a few years ago) wants to destroy our economy , create a common currency with argentina and venezuela and so on. but these things takes time.

People will take time to get convinced to invest a big part of their life savinga into bitcoin, use it for remittances, etc. It is not only a matter of obstacles to buy only

They're just speculating where the investment could come from, but that's an old story that's been around for as long as Bitcoin has existed. Even today, the comparison of gold and Bitcoin is very popular, especially when talking about the possibility that some investors decide to sell gold and buy BTC. If only 10% of the value of gold (market cap $12.36 trillion) was transferred to Bitcoin, what would happen to the price of the same?

The fact is that there is constant speculation about how various companies, funds or individuals will allocate part of their funds to Bitcoin, but wouldn't it be logical if they had already done so or are still doing it today? Some will say that maybe they are waiting for some kind of more favorable legal framework, but in most of the developed world, even today, there are no obstacles for someone to buy Bitcoin.

If I know the potential of Bitcoin and I have the means to invest today, why wait for the price to be x5 or x10 higher? Saylor must have regretted many times that ten years ago he believed that Bitcoin would fail, as well as many others who will realize the same in the next ten years.

Exactly.

But if we get there and they're right, it's a win for us and if we don't get there yet the price still goes up higher than it was with the last bull run, we're still at win.

Deep inside, I want to see those prices happen and having it still on my hand holding bitcoin by that time is surely going to be celebrated not just by me but by the majority.

everyone should know some basics about wholesale retail markets of bitcoin and value:premium windows the markets fit inside

if world costs of planetary minimal acquisition costs are X and planetary maximum costs are Y to mine 1 bitcoin
then the speculative market will speculate between those

after all who would pay a market premium if they can, even in most expensive mining cost country can mine for less or obtain in wholesale OTC markets for less. so the buyer premium top at the retail(spot) market has a top limit

2021 had a $10k to $75k limit and the market speculated $30k-$70k within that limit
2022 had a $15k to $90k limit and the market speculated $50k-$16k within that limit

for there to be even a possible $1,5m spot market price ATH
requires the wholesale/mining market window of value:premium to be above $1.5m

this is like a mining cost multiplier of 16x (current 90k top lifted to 1,5m)

..
obviously with efficiency gains this can become more then 16x mining cost increase.
but also inflation and electric costs can make the $$$ amount be inflated to not require real world energy increases of 16x and instead less than 16x energy usage. and instead just the cost of that less energy going up
..
so lets just stick with a 16x effort in 7 years
meaning ~2.3x a year
.. recent years has not seen a 2.3x of mining hashrate/cost per year.
but this can change as we have seen these large jumps in costs in other years

so in my view $1.5m is a stretch.. its "possible" but at a stretch

however a 2.6x window lift is easier to expect in 7 years. so yes $250k bitcoin could see a $250k+ in 7 years without much effort
though no guarantee.. just that the window of possible $250k is achievable without much effort

I helped a couple buddies set up their Trezor wallets for the first time and one of them told me about ARK so I decided to buy a few shares of ARKK.  It's literally the only investment inside of my IRA's that is in the red lol.  I'm not sold on Cathie Wood at all.  She tends to make a lot of very speculative claims that I feel are a bit outlandish.  Like right now, I think predicting that bitcoin will hit 1 million per coin is insane.  How about we try and get to 100k first?  I'm a bit jaded I guess, being that her fund has been shit since I been in it.

Either way, I don't believe it really matters what are their intentions. Whether they're bad or good, bitcoin will succeed further in the long term. This is my bet.

Just to be sure: have they published any hard proof of their stash? It's quite easy to do, so I'll remain skeptical if they don't.

Apart from various kinds of predictions and analyses regarding the price of Bitcoin in the coming year, I will not be afraid. Because the first thing for me is to always educate myself to consistently collect satoshi. Trying to distance me from speculation has resulted in losing my grip all this time. The target that I want to achieve is not only 2030 or in other words, passing 2x ATH bitcoin will obviously be a little tempted to release it. Isn't it once every 4 years that we can enjoy the results of what we plant?

But the previous ATH were in 2018 and 2021, not in the halving event years.

ATH occurs one/two years after the Halving events , so those years you mentioned are not better imo.


But that is not a blindly prediction, they made a report show where this money comes from. You can even see in the image I posted in the OP. Money will flow from 5 to 25% from remittances, 0,3% to 10% from emerging markets, etc

I think this price is way too conservative and the $1m target price Cathie Wood set is too optimistic. $500K would be better middle ground and much more reasonable assuming the halving increase the price at the same rate as in the previous two halvings.


Well, they'd say that about Saylor and just about any bull. It's very hard for investors to believe in such astronomical prices when we are in the middle of one of the worst bear markets we ever experienced.

Because it is a nice round number that plays its role in such speculations - regardless of the halving in 2028 and the possibility that 2029 will be the year of some new big bull run. Furthermore, any speculation that sets a range as wide as $250k to as much as $1.5 million is nothing more than mere speculation, regardless of whether it comes from someone who people think knows what will happen in the future.

I basically agree with you, and I think many others share that opinion, although in 7 years most people think that the price of 1 BTC will be in the six-figure zone, so we will not be disappointed if Cathie is right

I see people doubting Cathie Wood because of how she interacts with the people. It's obvious that she's a bitcoin maxi and it's almost looking like she's shilling it to everyone to buy bitcoin.

Yeah, as she's obviously bias, people are seeing that and we as bitcoin investors we understand where she's coming from. That prediction is high and 2 halvings will come before that year comes. 1 is for 2024 and the other is for 2028. Who knows if they're right.

I don't know why they choose the year 2030. In my opinion, if I make any prediction, I will pick years of likely big bull markets like years with Bitcoin halving events: 2024, 2028 and 2032. With ARK report, they choose 2030 that will probably a year of bear market and it is not good for prediction.

Furthermore, their predictive price is too wide from $250k to $1.5M and I don't like that prediction. Anyone can make that blindly wide predictive price.

In 2032, after that halving, Bitcoin circulating supply will be 99.2% of its total supply and with each block, miners will get only 0.78125 BTC as block reward.
Controlled supply

You do have a good point here 
Still, I think that by making such price predictions on Bitcoin, their goal is to advertise their own business, not Bitcoin itself. That's all.

Well if ARK and Cathie Wood weren't invested then people would be asking why didn't they buy any bitcoin if she thinks the price will go so high?

Damn if you do, damn if you don't. At least they put their money where their mouth is.

Man, I'm going to be way too old to continue being active on this forum I think -- unless I actually manage to retire from the lottery in a few years or somehow find a job that pays me many times what I earn.

Suppose 250k in 2030 isn't too bad at all, that's 7 years to stack sats. Sadly, not sure will make a significant dent in retirement barrier barring a sub-10k crash for a year heh.

I've heard this theory from a few people as well. Either way, money has been devalued more and more in recent years and it will certainly continue to do so, but I think in 2030 you can still buy more for $250,000 than with $25,000 today. Surely you will be able to buy less in 2030 than today with $250,000, but I don't think that the devaluation of money is progressing so quickly. But if this does happen, the world will certainly have more problems than it has now and things are looking pretty bad anyway. 

Or perhaps they truly believe BTC is the next global reserve currency and they want to have a big portion of the pie.

It's better to try and fail, rather than stay on the sidelines and miss the opportunity of a lifetime "in case it catches on" (Satoshi's words). Lots of people are likely to regret not buying BTC at the current levels.

I reckon Ark's price predictions are in today's dollars, not hyperinflated ones.

With hyperinflation we will see hyperbitcoinization (BTC reaching 100m USD or even 1 billion and beyond).

Infiltrating this thread because it looks like a ChipMixer group chat so far!

You know what.  Bitcoin around $250,000 for the worst case sounds like something I would drool over.  If this is the worst case, it is amazing.  Speaking of cycles, this may not be implausible at all if we consider the insane past Bitcoin had.  And does it look like money is getting closer than ever to becoming worth nothing at all?  My actual question is.  If Bitcoin gets to $250,000, will $250,000 get you more purchasing power in 2030 than $25,000 would get you in 2023 or will money be so devalued it will be worth nothing?  If money is strongly devalued this decade.  Then brace yourselves.

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Regards,
PrivacyG

Idunno, with predictions like this, I always flip from plausible to implausible and vice versa a lot. Like, while I'm bullish on bitcoin, there are just so much factors to take into control to be able to make a decent prediction.