Topic: Asic Arms Race 28mn chips - page 2. (Read 3342 times)

BFL and even KNC are seeing lots of refund requests. I see this on their forums every day.

BFL via Paypal / Credit Card companies forcing them, and KNC is offering refunds to anyone who requests without an issue.
(KNC hasn't even started to deliver yet, and are not behind on schedule and people are still refunding their orders.)

Everything BFL makes is out of date and can't make break even at this point....even their vapor ware 'Monarch'.


Most people are starting to figure out that if KNC mining equipment can barely make break even that almost no ones equipment is going to break even.

The number of people who are interested in mining for long term at a loss is very very little.

I believe we are going to see an overshoot and a crash in the hashrate after new year. (Similar to the April bitcoin crash.)

Who is buying new equipment? No one, everyone who has looked to the future is asking about refunds.
Who is bringing new hardware to market? At least a half dozen companies all saying they are going to "be a dominant force" in the bitcoin mining hardware market...sometime around Dec.

In reality by Dec they will be sitting on hardware that no one wants....the price will have to drop to a point where these units can make a few bucks.
That number may be below the cost of building these devices at that point.

Basically if you don't have a preorder almost ready to ship...you are out of the mining race.
Even if you do it is likely you will just break even.

There is no next gen after ASIC's....at least I haven't read about anything more powerful.

So we will be stuck in a rut, limited by the best ASIC's we can design and pump out.

What are they going to do keep building bigger ASIC mining hardware? That is the same as adding more USB miners to your farm at this point.

are you blind or just trolling?

https://i.imgur.com/ODIQYzv.png

How do i find this page if i don't have the full address?  I go on eAsic site, i click on "Company->eASIC Press Releases," and get a comprehensive catalog of press releases, all the way to the year 2000.  Here: http://www.easic.com/easic-company/press-releases/   No mention of this.  How come?

are you calling activemining/VMC vaporware? look at this:

http://www.easic.com/vmc-uses-easic-to-achieve-24-756-ths-bitcoin-miner/

and is USA based... and well funded.

Not difficult, but expensive. Outside of chipzilla there aren't all that many fabs with 20nm capacity. TSMC just got serious about 20nm in April:

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/atod/201304010042.aspx

It seems unlikely that it would be worth the expense to shrink from 28 to 20nm for vendors of btc mining hardware.

How difficult and expensive would it be for a company to make 20 nm chips after they've already made 28 nm?

I agree. The difficulty is going up so fast, most of these devices will likely be unprofitable. Not to mention all of these companies are unproven and have not ever released a single product, much less a Bitcoin ASIC.

Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment, but I am suggesting to my diversified group buy participants that we hold our BTC until Avalon announces 2nd gen prices/specs, rather than order some of the currently available vaporware offers.

AT LEAST one of the new vendors will have delays. I speculate KNC will have delays, they have been awfully quiet as of late. I would be surprised if at least one of the other companies doesn't suffer from delays as well.

I believe some people should really think about just purchasing coins as your investment in Bitcoin.  Right now we have a ton of hardware coming online and until a bulk of it has brought the difficulty to where it needs to be, you should hold off putting new money to work. 

Many of the pre-order vendors will not face a wave of cancellations as they don't allow refunds. The fact that this policy is illegal for American based companies doesn't seem to be much of an obstacle. Bfl really set the bar here.

If KNC actually delivers around 2PH by 15th of Oct, will the other companies face a wave of cancelled orders? Or KNC itself for the Nov shipping orders?

'

Avalon is already working on 3rd gen 28nm chips for their server farms.

Isn't Avalon working on 2nd gen chips?

I'm pleased we're finally getting close to the finishline, at least. With any luck, the market may hit a bit of maturity, and the hashrate will be, well, predictable if not stable.

That only applies to orders placed now, there was a price cut on knc products. I think it unlikely knc will ship in quantity this month, but they appear likely to ship in bulk in October.

Edit: uh yeah...I'm slow.

No, that's a later order -- the first batch is being shipped by the end of September.  Research your topic, pl0x.

Obviously you haven't been paying attention. Their first batch is due for sept shipping, they are now on third batch orders for Nov shipping.

Chance that BFL will actually be around long enough to ship chips? >50%

here: http://i.imgur.com/ViHHvcX.png

I see this race as largely irrelevant, but unless knc stumbles at the finish line(or bfl's everyone) the 28nm trophy is theirs to win.

Process node is only one factor in determining efficiency however. Bitfury beat them all to market with a 55nm chip that's significantly more efficient than the likely front running 28nm chip. Going forward bitfury's 55nm chip looks like it will remain competitive, from an efficiency standpoint, with all of the announced 28nm vaporware and woe to the competition if bitfury shrinks that chip with good results.

Pretty sure KNC is supposed to ship by the end of September