Topic: ASIC Difficulty Curves - page 3. (Read 8857 times)
I believe the unit of time referenced in the first chart to be weeks and not days. It is a bit difficult to follow, but interesting just the same. Thanks for sharing the work that went into these guys.
My eyes hurt quite a bit trying to look at the tiny numbers of the first image. I'm not sure what you mean when you say current increases, that you are referencing, but it seems clear at even a cursory glance that only the .2% / day rate is within sensible tolerances.
You are already starting your curves at 200TH/sec, when asic rates are close to parity with current GPU rates (that is to say the $ value of buying an asic in that world is similar to the $ value of buying a GPU in our current bitcoin world). Even the .4% curve, over the course of 30 days, increases from 200TH/sec to 400TH/sec, or using your values: 3,333 singles at a cost of $4,700,000 of hardware has been brought online that month. Possible I suppose, but let's not forget that the incentive to buy asics is much lower at this point, with supply potentially still far more limited than the current GPU market, and for comparison the entire GPU / FPGA mining set up running now is probably closer to $7m in value. Something to bear in mind I suppose, but seems very unlikely.
For the second graph, I would think for that to be helpful to yourself and others, you would want to use the step-function change that occurs with bitcoin rather than linearity, as it will certainly impact the results quit a bit. Difficulty takes a step after every 2016 blocks, based on time over expected time. If you were to luckily hop on that early, you drastically under-represent your first 5 day earnings, which would of course account for the majority of your first 30 day return. This would also be closer to the mark on reality, as the change of hashing power will almost certainly be far more accelerated than the even distribution you are working with.
Admittedly somewhat nitpicky, but I figure for usability these are low-hanging fruits.
You are already starting your curves at 200TH/sec, when asic rates are close to parity with current GPU rates (that is to say the $ value of buying an asic in that world is similar to the $ value of buying a GPU in our current bitcoin world). Even the .4% curve, over the course of 30 days, increases from 200TH/sec to 400TH/sec, or using your values: 3,333 singles at a cost of $4,700,000 of hardware has been brought online that month. Possible I suppose, but let's not forget that the incentive to buy asics is much lower at this point, with supply potentially still far more limited than the current GPU market, and for comparison the entire GPU / FPGA mining set up running now is probably closer to $7m in value. Something to bear in mind I suppose, but seems very unlikely.
For the second graph, I would think for that to be helpful to yourself and others, you would want to use the step-function change that occurs with bitcoin rather than linearity, as it will certainly impact the results quit a bit. Difficulty takes a step after every 2016 blocks, based on time over expected time. If you were to luckily hop on that early, you drastically under-represent your first 5 day earnings, which would of course account for the majority of your first 30 day return. This would also be closer to the mark on reality, as the change of hashing power will almost certainly be far more accelerated than the even distribution you are working with.
Admittedly somewhat nitpicky, but I figure for usability these are low-hanging fruits.
I did something a little similar looking at the earning tack a few days ago.
Here is a quick little representation of the mining income upon ASIC release.
The only assumptions are 2 BFL SC singles and a linear rate of difficulty adjustment per day. Not completely realistic but close.
The only assumptions are 2 BFL SC singles and a linear rate of difficulty adjustment per day. Not completely realistic but close.
I was tinkering around with the current difficulty increases say 0.2% to 0.6% per day and plugged that in to the forecast increase of ASIC hardware.
Came up with some interesting numbers.
Then I decided at what point would electrical consumption come in to play. I was a bit surprised as to how quickly the GH/W would come in to play with ASICs.
I wasn't expecting it to be an issue for at least a few years.
I made a quick chart and decided to share it.
This is weekly increases and the Total Hash rate.
The dashed lines represent at what total hash rate a ~$1400 ~60G/h ASIC would after power consumption provide at least +5% return on top of the price of the equipment within a year.
There's a lot I don't take into account.
Starting with the fluctuating price of bitcoins. Assumed $12 here.
Comments?
Came up with some interesting numbers.
Then I decided at what point would electrical consumption come in to play. I was a bit surprised as to how quickly the GH/W would come in to play with ASICs.
I wasn't expecting it to be an issue for at least a few years.
I made a quick chart and decided to share it.
This is weekly increases and the Total Hash rate.
The dashed lines represent at what total hash rate a ~$1400 ~60G/h ASIC would after power consumption provide at least +5% return on top of the price of the equipment within a year.
There's a lot I don't take into account.
Starting with the fluctuating price of bitcoins. Assumed $12 here.
Comments?
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