Average daily commissions/donations: 0.00000000 BTC ($0.00) <-- this isn't correct. Everyone thinks that they'll have the GH/s to solo mine. Guess what, the problem is that EVERYONE thinks that, lol. You'll probably end up on a pool.
Oh 10x isn't an extreme scenario. There's just pre orders confirmed right now between all the companies that would result in like 6x difficulty (I have re-run those with the new numbers to get a specific difficulty but that's in the ballpark). Once pre-order people make money and buy more hardware plus other people see that the pre-orders were fulfilled and ASICs work so they start ordering (easily 2x to 3x the count of pre-orderers), that's the end of anyone ever making money with them.
the zero commissions is reasonable depending on how much hardware you've already ordered. SC rig, yah 1.5th/s is plenty for solo mining you're talking 1.1% of the network hash rate at somewhere between 5x and 10 difficulty.
sc Single - no you won't be going solo.
I agree with your numbers, we'll see 5x immediately then a quick climb to 10x (as first wavers cash out and reinvest - yes expect a couple days of the btc/usd being compeltely tanked). and a quick step to 10x... then a slower acceleration to 20x or 30x over the next year or so.
I should point out that FPGAs will still be profitable enough at 10x - and will start dropping off when the network hits 15x.
At 40x - an sc single will still make about double what a single is making right now... nobody should be shocked by this... ROI will still be between 5 and 6 months.
