I am mining heavycoin which uses hefty1 algorithm although is not fpga proof, it looks like it create stalls so fpgas can't be more efficient than gpus. Asics (for hefty1, x11, x13 etc) will probably be faster but there is a ROI question for end user. We will see how it will go with existing scrypt asics.
This ^
Even though scrypt ASICs might seem daunting now, the overall question that matters most is if ROI can happen. And right now, they're basically glorified GPU farms that are packed into smaller spaces, and consume less power. Definitely not like Bitcoin ASICs, which just turned everything on its head.
So a new coin that is scrypt wont make it? I find it hard to believe. I've seen a few launch recently and they still are going.
It's not that they won't make it... It is just that it is very difficult for a new coin to launch with scrypt. Litecoin has so much hashing power, that someone could stop mining LTC for a day at very little lost revenue, and overwhelm the network of another coin, either 51%-ing it, double-spending, or flat out running it into the ground. As a result, a lot of scrypt coins have moved toward alternatives... AuxPOW, PoS, X11, etc... in an effort to stay out of danger.
No known asics for x-11 x-13 x-15, and so on there are some for scrypt and scrypt-n. If a coin is say scrypt like litecoin and don't want asics mining they can fork and switch to another algo. Rented hash can be a bigger issue than asics in my opinion. Instead of buying a machine you can rent even more hash power for the time you want.
I'm not very knowledgeable with the x11/x13/etc, but why is that? Could there be one developed for them soon?
There's nothing to prevent them... they are just newer algos that ASIC manufacturers haven't had time to develop for yet.
Time is one factor, definitely, but another aspect to consider is how profitable ASIC manufacturers think the coin is. If there's only a few, and are fairly unknown, there's no incentive to push forward. After all, custom hardware ain't cheap.
some algos may never get asics. Some just are not used enough to justify making asics.
Well, it all depends how many people decide to jump on the ASIC-resistance bandwagon. If it becomes a popular idea, someone funds development of an ASIC. Case in point: scrypt. Was never meant to be truly ASIC-proof, and things like scrypt-jane and scrypt-N knock out current mining techniques (like GPU mining) over time.
Some argue that with the advent of cheaper hardware, ASIC development will be around the same speed as GPU clock speed increases, so overall there won't be an issue as long as you stay one step ahead -- that's why X11 is my favorite right now