Its rather the opposite. The fact they intend to launch at 10x better MH/$, while they could easily charge 5 or even 10x more considering the power efficiency gains, shows what kind of tectonic shift this really represents.
You keep trying to make it sound like ASICs are different, but 10x better Mhash/s/$ has already been seen in the past: when we moved from CPU to GPU mining.
I expected something much close to FPGA prices initially. But these prices will only last until price/difficulty catches up, therefore asic sales would dry up, so BFL will slash them over and over until they are >100x lower than today and finally approach somewhere closer to marginal costs which is damn close to zero $ per GH.
That is the 'exponential' leap. Want to take bets that in 24 months, bitcoin difficulty wont be 100x higher than today?
BFL will never be able to slash their prices by 100x because the other assembly/component costs would make up most of the cost. Think about it, if they did, the BitForce SC Single would sell for $12.99. But the case, PCB, fan, power adapter, etc alone cost at least $20-30.
Also, assuming that the capital invested in GPUs by miners (as of today) is fully reinvested in ASIC mining products, it would be sufficient to increase the difficulty by 10x-25x, because ASICs achieve 10x-25x more Mhash/s/$ than GPUs. And I think the invested capital is likely to double in the next 24 months, so difficulty could increase to about 50x. And that's
without BFL having to slash their ASIC prices at all. (50x is too close to your 100x, so no I won't take the bet.)
However, I would be ready to bet on the fact that BFL will not slash their prices by more than, say, 30% before June 2014. For once, I expect them to take at least 1 year to develop and ship the first ASIC product.
