Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 531. (Read 3917468 times)

Yes, if you measure your ROI in BTC, BTC appreciation is a bad news for AM in most cases.

You may very well be right about this. An argument can be made that transaction fees in bitcoin will never be higher than today. That would be bad news for AM though... right?

It's not necessary for the mining income to keep at 10 BTC considering the appreciation of BTC. If BTC is adopted well in the future, its price will be well above 100K, and meanwhile the cost of mining a block in fiat will not increase so much (the exponential increase will not last for long). Therefore, it's possible that miners could be still profitable even with 0.1 BTC reward ( = 10K = 10BTC at current price) per block.

Anyway, all these are just some speculation and let's move on to something concrete news from AM. Sadly, there's still no PR available.

 
ahh yes, sure, obviously.. but hey i was just trying to figure out what made Mr stslimited react with such a condescendant ton when *chriswilmer shared his view in here. 

And we're referring to mining for the purpose of ASICMiner income.

well i know that thank you, but i referred to 'mining' as to the purpose of getting 'new' coins. thats all.

+1

No, there's only about 9M BTC of FRESH BTC to be mined. There's infinite BTC available to mine through transaction feees.

The important point is that, when valuing AM, the 9 million number is not relevant. Steady state mining revenue is.

I think that was the mistake you made and which amused Mr stslimited. there is a difference between new coins and fees. Hence there is only about 9M BTC yet to be mined. period.

The transaction fees per block will likely increase with time (today it is approximately 0.3 btc per block) so that the total mining reward per block (fees + new coins) may never go below some value, which I am guessing to be between 5 and 10 btc per block.

From a miner's perspective that means that there are unlimited bitcoins to mine in the future so long as bitcoin is a useful widely adopted currency.

I think he meant for the rate to plateau, which means a slower convergence of the inflation rate and a higher subsidy for mining.

Subsidy for mining only encourages infrastructure building. It is conceivable that the mining infrastructure has equilibrated within the next 6 years, thus the subsidy is not necessary and the free market rule (transaction fees) can take over.

if i understand you correctly, you have no clue how bitcoin mining works. IT DOES PLATEAU (ish) as the total number of coins in existence approaches 21M.

lol, you don't know what you are talking about...... cute

I think if bitcoin is going to succeed than the mining reward will have to plateau... perhaps at 10 btc per block... maybe 5... either way... I don't think there are only 9 million bitcoins left from mining.

Can we just stop this pointless argument?  

Any device paid for in BTC that won't return the original payment price in BTC is not worth purchasing.  This is most devices on the market now, if not all.  This is the "buy and hold" argument.  (Not considering the aftermarket resale of hardware, also known as passing the potato to the next sucker.) Anything paid for in fiat should look to the ultimate return value in fiat, regardless of BTC market fluctuations.  This also depends/relies on selling off the mined crypto to return said fiat.  Saying "I hold 5BTC for a device I paid $5000 for" is somewhat meaningless because you've input $5000 and output nothing.  If BTC crashes to $200 before you can cash out, you've spent $5000 to get back $1000.  Or saying you took out a bank loan and got a crap ton of BTC at $1100, now you've got a crap-ton of bytes on speculative currency and cannot make loan payments because you lack fiat.  

Why we're still arguing about this, especially outside the speculation thread, blows my mind.  Believe in utopia where holding BTC while you are paying so much for mining hardware that you can't pay your rent/mortgage makes you some crypto uber-god if that suits you or be realistic and understand the dynamics between fiat and a speculative currency and how the ultimate need for fiat overpowers the "holding power" of a crypto, but stop trying to convince other people that one way is the true way.  

We're all in this to profit, be it through life experience or dollars, now let's push this thread back towards relevant AM information and move the bickering elsewhere.  I'd like to be able to check this thread every couple of days, as a shareholder, to find relevant information on AM.  Not return to the same bullshit bickering about share prices vs. dividends vs. speculative portions of the network.  

You are wrong. Your pretentious attitude sucks.

I somewhat agree with the above paragraph, but the following one seems just wrong: since you pay the device in BTC, you have to consider only the BTC itself: exchange rate with other currency is totally irrelevant, since you had anyway the option of "just keeping your BTC" and having them appreciate exactly the same.

I'm quite tired of having to explain this time and again, it's so obvious but people keep getting it wrong. Will they ever learn?

Yes, I agree with the two group of buyers you mentioned, but I don't think they will pay the device not proportional to the potential gain. They may pay twice or even more as the future mining income but not constant price (in btc) no matter how much btc remain.

For your last paragraph, I never said the mining industry is not profitable at current difficulty levels and ROI in fiat does not matter in my previous analysis at all. I was trying to prove the future dividend of AM may not be way above 0.6 BTC. However, it does not exclude the possibility that in the future, 0.0001 BTC (maybe equal to $1K that time) per week as dividend is a huge reward. Nonetheless, I can enjoy the same benefit by holding my 0.6 BTC.

This makes sense, but you may be leaving out two relevant (ASIC Mining gear) market segments:
1) New Bitcoin investors that prefer to mine their coins instead of buying them (there are different reasons for this that have been discussed somewhere else)
2) "Corporate Miners" that need to stay on top of the game

Also, you should be very cautious when declaring the whole mining industry "not profitable at current difficulty levels" - as long as Bitcoin prices keep moving they have, it will be extremely difficult to prove this assertion. Looking at ROI in BTC alone can be an extremely misleading simplification.