Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 559. (Read 3917468 times)

Most of the info in the interview is speculative which is why you wont hear an official statement. FC has come through on just about every promise he made to this point so it is understandable he would want to only make official statements he can deliver on. I am sure if FC wanted he could imaginate some specs/prices for gen3 hardware equivalent to knc/cointerras preorders. However history has shown us that avoiding the preorder route is the way to go.

I still would love to know the answer to these questions:

Has any other competitor besides KNC stopped shipping to provide better profits?

Where is the official statement from cointerra stating they are hashing?

But again preorders don't mean diddly squat as BFL taught us.

Many folks have argued about the legitimacy of the translation / interpretation: It's quite the subject if you go back and dwell through the pages. I agree that I'd like to hear an "official" statement on the current plans though.
I was merely pointing out that most of your "info" is conveniently distorted.

An interview in friedcats native language. Nobody including board members from the chinese forums or these have claimed the interview is false. FC has not said anything regarding the interviews illegitimacy and what Friedcat has confirmed goes with exactly what the interview says which is gen3 coming 1st quarter of 2014. 3rd gen may very well have been developed who knows. I am sure BFL "developed" their asics 2 years ago.

So again has any other competitor besides KNC stopped shipping to provide better profits?

And where is the official statement from cointerra stating they are hashing? I couldn't find it and surely this would be huge news. But I did find that they missed nearly every deadline by a huge margin. Looking like first shipments are going to be jan at the earliest. Wouldn't be surprised if they pulled a BFL and took 6 months and refuse to refund preorders.

You're quoting an interview in a foreign language, when you claimed friedcat's "Own words":
The content is known to have been misinterpreted, and claims within are obviously off (3rd gen already developed? right...)
As far as you requesting quotes, you should try a taste of your own medicine and do your own research instead of "As far as I know / 99% sure / probably"
Edit: CoinTerra isn't hashing yet, but they are planning to next month and do accept CreditCard or Paypal which provides a layer of protection for investment.

At 1btc per cube, it is only about half as profitable but if you could pick one up for ~$800 (http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?id=18635057299) it comes in very close to KNC.


Is cointerra actually hashing? I haven't seen an official statement and would love it if you provided the link.

Also I know KNC is "holding back" orders to give their customers a better return but are any competitors doing the same?

Also for the source of the interview which is reposted weekly:

please explain using numbers instead of "claiming" facts. I'm going to go with you have no clue what you're talking about.
In "fact", I'm even going to help you with the type of things you should point to:

KnC Jupiter starting mining in December: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/b0792b35ea -> returns 2.4X investment
ASICminer Cube starting mining in December: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/931f591bb7 -> returns 1.3X investment
(for comparison's sake) CoinTerra T. IV starting mining in March: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/a02256b23a -> Returns 1.6X investment

There are no ASICminer cubes or KnC Jupiters available for sale out of ebay or preorder (which would never return full investment). The T. IV preorder for March is still open (1st batch is due for jan).
Also -  Cubes went on sale mid november and sold out immediately: Had you purchased Cubes then you might have made 2X investment. But the Jupiter arrived around then too.
Not good enough intel.
Please provide source.
Not good enough.
Please admit you have no idea what you are talking about and are pulling those numbers from a dark, dark place.

You mean knc preorders? Knc current miners are not superior and we have no idea how next gen devices will compare.

Not sure the point of arguing about imaginary hardware..

As far as I know cointerra does not even have a working asic so it is pointless to compare specs. As said earlier knc hardware does not reach roi faster.

I think you are assuming FC is an idiot which is not the case. He said in an interview he thinks the total nrtwork hashrate will achieve 1000ph during 2014 and he will be prepared for it. Even providing several hundred ph in his own words.

Also do you have any source competitors are "holding back". I am 99% sure that is bs.

Either way the next step for asicminer is switching to gen3 chips. We will probably see a hashrate increase of around ten times the current rate. Maybe more considering each rack I  the immersion cooled datacenter was not filled in the last pictures.

Or we can pretend FC is going to go sit in a corner while knc and competitors finally are able to deliver their next gen products..

Exactly what he is trying to do but it is factually inaccurate.

As of this point in time knc asics are more efficient electricity wise than asicminer but not more cost effective in terms of ROI. Both knc jupiter and asicminer cube have a ROI of about the same.

You dont find it a bit strange that asicminer 140nm tech can compete evenly with knc 28nm? Knc process size is nothing more than a gimmick. When it comes down to the specs of current gen hardware, knc is not superior. And when it comes to made up specs on future hardware, asicminer still comes out on top with efficient chips that are around 20 times more efficient than gen1 asicminer chips.


So how exactly is knc superior again?

KnC & CoinTerra do have better hardware for now, but if ASICminer executes as planned they should reclaim the crown early next year. I am trying to raise questions regarding execution of current business plan - Did the expansion into Gen3 take the new players into account / What the current known plan is (quotes/sources plz)

That's quite a task with the current network ramping up. I'm behind you but what's the plan to arrive there? knowing that competitors are holding back on hardware release to insure a return on their original purchasers?
I am trying to get some of the known details to resurface. I want to be proven wrong - but I need to shake the tree a bit.

I think pierrejo is trying to show that KNC has superior hardware. He is right. So what?

No company is going to have 100% of the market, not matter how great their hardware. KNC is selling to people who want to put up pretty big money to have bigger machines. ASICMiner is selling much cheaper machines. There is plenty of room in the market for both. All ASICMiner needs to do is to attain 10% of the total hash, which they should "easily" be accomplished with gen3 hardware, assuming it doesn't fail. (I am sure FC might dispute the word "easily" ). The other goal of ASICMiner is to sell out all the hardware it puts up for sale. So far ASICMiner has succeeded, with the exception of the gen2 setback.

KNC miner is a fine company with their own place in the market, but that in no way diminishes ASICMiners prospects.

   There have been some good pics and a write up by one journalist, copied far and wide.  Looks like we got the boxes, just need something to put in them 
 I imagine stock wise we have some falling to do before March. Then, whether gen3 is all its cracked up to be or not, I imagine it gets deployed in vast quantity. If its good, sales too, if not so much, we mine it until gen 4 can roll out. 2 years operations budget remember. Even if gen3 is weak, its not the end.  Nothing is infallible, but friedcat's team seems to have a lot of bases covered. FC= smart cookie, I think.

I am hoping you are right, and I am putting my money in that basket. I'd love to hear more about details though.

yeah, I understand that, but still, mining equipment is one method to convert fiat to BTC.  If banks /financial institutions can't do it, people may look to other alternatives.  In other words, this may be good for mining equipment manufacturers.

No matter how you slice it, sales and margins are getting thinner with the competition and difficulty increases. I believe that was forseen long ago, as earlier announcements have indicated (single digit margins IIRC)  What we DO have, at least in the works, is cutting edge self mining infrastructure. Hopefully that will allow the network share to be recovered and maintained regardless of sales profits dwindling to lower and lower levels. With the increased value of BTC the mining would inescabably become more (re:divs) heavily weighted than sales. At some point it is conceivable to buy chips from the competition if someone achieves a far better economy of scale at razor thin margins. Where that is, I have no idea, but the trend seems sure to me: lets start boiling that coolant boys!

well said +1

We all know you're ASICminer's fanboy and trust me, I want AM to go up too - but preaching relies on faith, and I want to see numbers. If you can't provide quotes or links, don't post. "Please take my money for a product that doesn't exist." can just as well be applied to ASICminer right now.

I was mixing my sources as I just started following various threads - the current 2TH for January is Cointerra's Terraminer IV (https://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-miner-january-soldout/) Additionally KnC will ship miners such as the Neptune in Q1/Q2 (https://www.kncminer.com/products/neptune) and appears to have quite a solid backlog (http://www.businessinsider.com/knc-sells-8-million-in-miners-2013-11) of 800 preorders 3 days ago - that's at least a rise of 2.4PH for the network (we're currently at 6.2PH in December) not considering other manufacturers. Both companies appear to have solid deliveries so far - and fallbacks if missed schedule.

CoinTerra's Terraminer IV (http://thegenesisblock.com/cointerra-announces-2ths-asic-bitcoin-miner-for-15750/) appear to have a 0.6W/GH consumption (https://cointerra.com/cointerra-open-silicon-announce-tape-goldstrike1-asic/), this is 3 times more than fc's 0.2W/GH promise but we are further away from release (nov tapeout: we're at least 3 months behind if not further)

=> my issue is more about the difficulty increase of the network than about the chip efficiency powerwise - is there a network difficulty prediction analysis that takes into account those two companies? (links?)


"If" - As much as I hate to point it out: we did miss the delivery of Gen2 chips and they got scrapped. But then the Terraminer IV batch 1 will still be there in Jan, batch 2 in march, and they have open order for Batch 3 (April)
CT had its "tapeout" on Nov8 - and their new hardware is supposed to ship in January / Mar / Apr. So if we do manage a January tapeout, we might not see anything before Apr/May... Will the competition be working on new chips by then (KnC)? What will the network be like with the new rival chips out?
Regarding the potential delivery issues:  CT did provide guarantees and rebates (https://cointerra.com/cointerra-announces-highest-performance-2-terahash-per-second-bitcoin-asic-mining-rig/) if unable to deliver within 30 days of delivery: that shows confidence, and so does the roaster of chip designers they have going. KnC meanwhile has had successful releases as well and is shipping their Jupiters. It bodes well for their next product: Neptune - promising a 30% reduction in W/GH ,(https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners) in other words bringing them on par close to par with ASICminer's next gen .2W/GH (They would be at .4W/GH... but have a history of overdelivering as seen with the hash increase for jupiters). That right there should make more than a few of us nervous - it's a race indeed.

What I am getting at is that the BFL effect has dimmed: the field players are now actually shipping close to schedule and I am expecting that to continue.  

Please go to kncminer thread and stay there.. We all know about knc and the competition they bring. The guy before me basically covered everything having to due with how shitty preorders are. He forgot to mention that knc might end up with underperforming hardware along with missed deadlines. Preorders as far as I'm concerned mean absolutely nothing.

But dat 20nm tech so cool right? Please take my money for a product that doesn't exist.

I do appreciate you coming to this thread every once in a while to let us know why you think AM will fail. Or as you call it "contributing"

Where did you get this info from? I think you are very mistaken.

KNCMiner is currently shipping their November batch of Jupiters (~ 650 GH/s) which is the most likely reason of the last spike in hashing these days. These were sold in the 5000-6000 range if I'm not mistaken.

They also just launched the pre-order of their new miners, called Neptune, which has been promised to be at least 3 TH/s machines. The first batch for previous customers sold 1200 units for $10,000 US, and now they're selling the second batch of 1200 for $13,000.

The big problem with this preorder thing is that they are committing to deliver during Q1/Q2 2014, which means a 6 month range that can make the difference between big BTC profit and big BTC loss. Even when I am a reasonably satisfied previous customer, I refused to take this deal because my estimations for difficulty increase made clear that it was very difficult to recoup the BTC investment.

I'm estimating that depending on delivery date, a Neptune could make between 6-13 coins. Consider that buying a Neptune was, best case scenario, about 10 BTC not considering hosting/electricity/shipping/duties. And if they delay the release for any "unforeseeable" reason, you'll be royally screwed.

The problem with KnCMiner is the same problem with all pre-orders, you'll never recoup your original BTC investment. It can be a fun way to purchase BTC "futures" but most likely not a way to multiply your existing BTC. I was one of the early preorders for the jupiter, and even though I've been doing pretty fine with mining, I'm expecting to break even BTC-wise. I will obtain in the end very much the same amount of coins I could have purchased directly at the time of buying the machine.

ASICMiner on the other hand, does not run these pre-order schemes. So you are much more likely of making a reasonable assumption of ROI when purchasing a miner. Also, if ASICMiner tapes out in late January, and starts selling/deploying miners anytime in Februray or early March, they can kick KnCMiner's ass, as I really don't think they deliver anything before April. Also, even with older technology ASICMiner's estimations for energy consumption of Gen3 are much lower than KnCMiner super 20nm chips.